How Manny Diaz taking over playcalling could affect Miami Hurricanes defense
Notes and thoughts on UM coach Manny Diaz’s defensive staff changes and the state of Miami’s defense:
▪ For perspective on how much UM’s defense has fallen off from Diaz’s final season as defensive coordinator (2018) to now, consider:
UM permitted 21.0 points per game in 2018, which was 28th in the country; the Canes allowed 26.0 per game this past season, which was 46th.
Miami had 31 takeaways in 13 games in 2018, which was third in college football and led all of Power 5. This past season, UM had just 16 takeaways in 11 games, which tied for 42nd.
UM went from allowing 362.8 yards per game in 2018, which was 36th, to 408.4 in 2020, which was 67th.
▪ Expect UM to blitz more with Diaz taking over defensive calls on game day.
Per Pro Football Focus, UM blitzed 43.5 percent of the time in 2018 with Diaz as defensive coordinator, compared with 35.5 percent last season with Blake Baker making game-day calls. (Baker is remaining on staff as defensive coordinator.)
With UM losing its top two pass rushers (Jaelan Phillips and Quincy Roche), the Canes likely would need to blitz more anyway in 2021.
▪ Also expect UM to use more man coverage instead of zone; man coverage often is the preference of players. Miami played man 55.7 percent of the time in pass coverage in 2018 compared with 35.7 percent last season, according to Sports Info Solutions.
▪ Diaz’s coaching should make a difference — and the UNC debacle (a 62-26 loss) falls on both players and coaches — but if you’re going to compare Miami’s defensive performance in 2018 to 2020, this is where you should start:
1). UM didn’t have a linebacker in 2020 who was close to the quality of Shaq Quarterman and Mike Pinckney. PFF rated UM’s linebackers among the worst in the country this past season.
2). Though the defensive end play was very good in both 2018 (Joe Jackson, Jon Garvin primarily) and 2020 (Phillips, Roche primarily), UM didn’t have a defensive tackle in 2020 who made anything close to the impact that Gerald Willis made in 2018, including 18 tackles for loss.
3). UM went from having one of the best safeties in the country in Jaquan Johnson in 2018 to an underachieving group that missed too many tackles and had too many breakdowns in coverage. In fact, the Canes’ No. 2 safety in 2018, Sheldrick Redwine, was better than any safety Miami had last season. One UM coach raved about Gurvan Hall’s ceiling a year ago, but he hasn’t met expectations.
4). Trajan Bandy (three interceptions in 2018) was better than any cornerback on UM’s roster in 2020.
So perhaps Diaz’s increased involvement will make a difference. But the view here is UM’s defensive deterioration is more of a recruiting issue than a game-day coaching issue. Either way, it’s on the staff to get it fixed.
▪ The decision to move Todd Stroud upstairs (to a senior football advisor role) and bring back Jess Simpson was surprising because Stroud deserves considerable credit for Greg Rousseau and Phillips blossoming. But Diaz admitted to Joe Rose this week that UM’s regression against the run concerned him.
In 2018, UM allowed 145.8 yards rushing per game (43rd best) and 3.50 per carry (22nd).
In 2020, the Canes permitted 174.5 yards rushing per game (76th best) and 4.55 per carry (81st).
The biggest difference? Having Quarterman, Pinckney and Willis in 2018 and not having those type of difference-makers at those positions this season. Still, the lack of adjustments in the second half of the UNC game was inexecusable.
▪ Diaz’s increased role can only help, but the 2021 personnel concerns me. On paper, the Canes likely won’t be as good at defensive end (with Phillips and Roche moving to the NFL). They should be better at cornerback with Tyriq Stevenson coming in from Georgia as a likely starter.
Whether they’re better at defensive tackle, linebacker and safety hinges entirely on:
1). Whether Jarid-Harrison Hunte takes another big jump at tackle, whether Nesta Jade Silvera can make a Willis-type rise as a senior and whether elite incoming freshman Leonard Taylor can contribute immediately. (Taylor won’t enroll early, according to Canesport.)
2). Whether the young linebackers — primarily Corey Flagg and Sam Brooks and to an extent Tirek Austin-Cave and Avery Huff — improve significantly, because it would be unrealistic to expect anything much better from Zach McCloud and Bradley Jennings Jr.
3). Whether the two elite safety prospects of the past two classes (Avantae Williams — who missed the season with an undisclosed injury — and Class of 2021 gem James Williams) become instant impact players and if talented Bubba Bolden becomes much more consistent in tackling and coverage.
Those are a lot of ifs. What we do know is cornerback looks to be in better shape with Stevenson, who had a 92.9 passer rating in his coverage area in his first two seasons in Georgia — not bad for a young player in America’s toughest conference. A starting nickel package of Stevenson, Te’Cory Couch and either Al Blades Jr. or DJ Ivey should be good enough.
This much is also clear: The young defensive ends — Jahfari Harvey, Chantz Williams and Cameron Williams, in particular — and Tennessee transfer DeAndre Johnson (4.5 sacks last season in eight games) must generate a pass rush, or Diaz is going to be forced to blitz even more than he would typically like.
▪ New defensive backs coach Travaris Robinson is well regarded and a good hire.
At South Carolina, where he was defensive coordinator and defensive backs coach from 2016 to 2020, the Gamecocks were in the top half of the nation in passing yards allowed, per game, in 2016 (50th) and 2017 (39th) but in the bottom half the past three years: 69th in 2018, 65th in 2019 and 97th in 2020. That dropoff is partly a function of playing SEC schools with better talent.
As defensive backs coach at Auburn in 2015, the Tigers were 68th in passing yards allowed per game. But as UF’s defensive backs coach, the Gators were 17th in passing yards allowed in 2013 and seventh in 2014 — the type of success UM hopes that Robinson can replicate here.
▪ Not only will DeMarcus Van Dyke get a chance to coach his own position (as UM’s cornerbacks coach, replacing Mike Rumph), but he will now be able to travel to schools as a recruiter. UM people said Van Dyke made a very positive impact as UM’s assistant director of recruiting the past two years despite NCAA rules that prohibit non-coaches from leaving campus for recruiting purposes. Now that he can travel to schools, Van Dyke should make an even bigger difference.
▪ At this point, the only defensive players that UM knows won’t return are Rousseau (who opted out of the 2020 season anyway), Phillips (turning pro) and seldom-used Patrick Joyner (transferred to Utah State). A UM spokesman said everyone is awaiting an announcement from senior safety Amari Carter, who hasn’t said whether he will accept the NCAA’s offer for another year of eligibility.
This story was originally published January 20, 2021 at 3:40 PM.
