An early look at Dolphins’ options with top 10 draft pick it’s getting from Houston Texans
Never in history has there been a final day of the regular season with a combo platter of two delicious Dolphins subplots in tandem: Miami trying to make the playoffs early in the day and then trying vicariously to secure a top three draft pick later in the day.
The draft pick storyline has a greater impact on the franchise longterm, and here’s where things stand:
If Houston loses at home to Tennessee on Sunday, that Texans’ first-round pick - owned by Miami because of the Laremy Tunsil trade - will be third overall.
But if the Texans upset the Titans, the pick could end up as high as third or as low as ninth - or in between. The worst scenario for Miami: Houston wins and Atlanta, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Detroit, the Giants and Carolina all lose. Then Miami’s pick from Houston falls to ninth.
Miami also possesses its own first and second-round picks (the first stands 23nd at the moment) and Houston’s second-round pick, which will be in the mid-to-late 30s.
An early look at the top considerations at No. 3 for Miami if the Texans lose Sunday, with Jacksonville expected to select Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence first overall and the Jets facing a tough decision at No. 2:
▪ Hope that a team picking in the top 15 of the draft covets a quarterback available at No. 3 (BYU’s Zach Wilson, Ohio State’s Justin Fields or less likely, North Dakota State’s Trey Lance) and offers the Dolphins a treasure trove to move up.
The Jets could take one of those quarterbacks at No. 2 or could stick with Sam Darnold, trade down themselves, or possibly take elite Oregon left tackle Penei Sewell.
Only the Dolphins, Jets and Jaguars have two first-rounders in April’s draft, so the Dolphins moving down to acquire a third first-rounder in 2021 is unrealistic. But Miami - by moving down - could pick up another first-round pick in 2022 or, say, a second- and third-rounder in 2021.
The depth at receiver in this draft is strong enough that the Dolphins could afford to drop several spots and still land help there.
Pro Football Focus’ Austin Gayle said if the Dolphins pick third, “staying put should be a last resort… The value of the pick with Wilson/Fields available is too high to take a non-QB.”
So what teams who will or could pick in the first half of the first round need a quarterback? Perhaps Detroit (if they want to plan for life after Matt Stafford), Carolina (if they determine they want to eventually move on from Teddy Bridgewater), Denver (if they opt for a better option than Drew Lock) and definitely Washington and New England. The Giants - who have Daniel Jones - can’t be ruled out either. Philadelphia - with Jalen Hurts and Carson Wentz - can’t be totally ruled out either.
But it would take one of those teams desperately wanting a QB left on the board at No. 3 and fearing that a team picking soon after Miami could beat them to the punch.
ESPN’s Mel Kiper has Fields third, Wilson 13th, Alabama quarterback Mac Jones 14th and Lance 16th.
But some teams reportedly love Wilson. Longtime draft analyst Dane Brugler, now with The Athletic, rates him the second-best prospect in this draft (he has Fields seventh and Lance ninth), adding: “There is no consensus No. 2 quarterback in this class, but Wilson emerged as the favorite for many around the league this season. He is an instinctive athlete with the ball velocity, accuracy and escapability to create inside or outside of structure. No, the competition on his 2020 film has not been impressive, but the quality of his play has been outstanding and the traits are obvious.”
▪ Selecting Fields or Wilson: Miami picking another quarterback would be surprising - one Dolphins official laughed at the idea when I asked about it - but nothing can be completely ruled out with this regime. Keep in mind that while Fields and Wilson are good prospects, they aren’t better prospects than Tagovailoa last year.
Pro Football Focus said this week: “There’s nothing forcing the Dolphins to move on from Tagovailoa if they draft another quarterback, as the team has ample other draft assets, talented young players and cap space to build around both quarterbacks without needing to trade one in.”
Still, this would be an unexpected course for Miami; neither Fields nor Wilson is viewed as can’t miss. The greater likelihood is Miami adding more talent around Tagovailoa.
▪ Alabama receiver DeVonta Smith: Reuniting Tagovailoa with one of his playmakers - and filling Miami’s biggest need - would be a popular choice, and Smith has the resume to validate a top-three pick: 98 catches for 1511 yards and 17 touchdowns heading into Friday’s playoff game. That includes 35 explosive receptions of 15-plus yards --- seven more than anyone else in college football.
“There truly is not a defensive back in college football who can effectively shut him down over the course of an entire game,” Pro Football Focus said. “That, right there, is dominance in its purest form.”
Kiper rates him fourth overall, behind Lawrence, Sewell and Fields.
Brugler rates Smith sixth, behind two other playmakers (LSU receiver Ja’Marr Chase and UF tight end Kyle Pitts) and cites Smith’s size (6-1, 175) as one small concern.
“Aside from his unimpressive body type at 175 pounds, what is there not to love about Smith?” Brugler said in The Athletic. “He is dynamic and instinctive as a route runner. His ball skills are elite. And his natural polish at the position will make him an immediate playmaker in the NFL.”
▪ LSU receiver Chase: If Miami opts for a receiver with Houston’s pick, this likely will be a Smith/Chase choice, unless Houston beats Tennessee and both players are off the board when Miami picks or unless Miami trades into the 10-to-20 range. (Alabama’s Jaylen Waddle - whom Kiper slots eighth overall - then would come into play if Miami picks, say, 8th to 15th.)
Chase, 6-0, opted out of playing this season, but Kiper said: “He has two full seasons of awesome film that NFL teams can study. Chase, who caught 84 passes last season, leading the FBS with 1,780 yards and 20 touchdowns, makes everything look easy. He’s stellar after the catch, breaking tackles and running away from defenders.”
Brugler mocks Chase third to Miami: “With his gear-changing acceleration and elite finishing skills, Chase would give the Dolphins’ offense an immediate weapon that should accelerate the development of Tua Tagovailoa.”
▪ Sewell if the Jets don’t take him at No. 2: This wouldn’t be a particularly popular pick with some Dolphins fans, but Sewell is the elite type of left tackle prospect who at least warrants a discussion. He allowed one sack combined in 2018 and ‘19 and opted out of playing in 2020.
Though Austin Jackson started his rookie season strong and has been generally competent, no tackle in football has allowed as many quarterback pressures (35) in as few pass blocking snaps (478). Those 35 pressures are 10th most among all NFL tackles. He has allowed only four sacks in 12 games, which isn’t atrocious for a rookie starter who was considered somewhat raw.
Among 83 qualifying offensive tackles, PFF rates Jackson 75th overall and 78th as a run-blocker.
If Sewell is the pick, Jackson could be moved to either guard or to right tackle (with Rob Hunt then moving to guard). Jackson said Friday he can play any position on the line.
If Sewell is on the board and Miami takes him, that likely means getting a receiver with Miami’s first-round pick (perhaps Minnesota’s Rashod Batemon, Mississippi’s Elijah Moore, LSU’s Terrace Marshall, Ohio State’s Chris Olave or UF’s Kadarius Toney) and waiting until the second round for a running back and defensive help.
Kiper rates Sewell the second best player in the draft behind Lawrence, noting “he dominated last season, winning the Outland Trophy as the college football’s best lineman. Sewell has everything NFL teams look for in a left tackle prospect. In a class with outstanding quarterback and wide receiver talent, Sewell won’t be the sexiest pick, but he’ll be an instant starter and upgrade for the team that picks him.”
▪ Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons:
Kiper rates him sixth and Todd McShay third overall in this draft class. He opted out of playing this season but had a combined 191 tackles - 19 for loss - 6.5 sacks and six forced fumbles in 2018 and 2019.
“He has rare talent, though he has room to grow into the defense that picks him,” Kiper said. “He played linebacker for the Nittany Lions, but he was a defensive end in high school and could end up as an outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense at the next level. It’s the versatility that makes him valuable, as he could also play inside linebacker in a 4-3. Parsons had five sacks last season, but he has a higher ceiling as a pass-rusher in the NFL.”
▪ Other scenarios: If the pick falls between 6 and 9 by virtue of Houston winning on Sunday or the Dolphins trading down, other options would include Pitts (Kiper has him seventh and he’s a special talent; but a skilled pseudo-receiver at tight end would be overlap with Mike Gesicki) and Alabama’s Waddle (was averaging 22.3 yards per catch with four TDs in four games before a high ankle sprain and fracture ended his season; Kiper says he’s “electric with the ball in his hands”).
If Miami finds a QB-needy team and trades down to the 9-18 range, names in play three would potentially include Waddle, Parsons if still available (Brugler slots him 10th), Notre Dame inside/outside linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Alabama cornerback Patrick Surtain Jr., Virginia Tech cornerback Caleb Farley, Tulsa outside linebacker Zaven Collins and UM defensive end Jaelan Phillips. A corner is unlikely unless Xavien Howard demands a trade or threatens a holdout and the Dolphins surprisingly decide to trade him.
After Smith, Chase and Waddle, there is considered (by some) a drop-off in receivers, with Moore, Marshall, Batemon, Olave and Toney all potential picks in the 20s.
Here’s my Friday piece with lots of Dolphins’ notes, including injury updates.
This story was originally published January 1, 2021 at 3:38 PM.
