How the Miami Heat can now add another All-Star and what’s most likely to happen
It would have been so clean and simple, preserving the cap space to sign an All-Star without needing to strike a deal with the Milwaukee Bucks or Indiana Pacers or whatever team might be losing that star to the Miami Heat next summer.
But it also would have run counter to everything the Heat has preached about family, if Miami had been the only team in this abbreviated offseason not to give a max contract to a max-worthy player from the 2017 draft class.
So now, with Bam Adebayo on the Heat’s books for at least $28.1 million in 2021-22, adding that third established All-Star will be a bit more difficult, but certainly achievable for salary cap guru/general manager Andy Elisburg and Heat president Pat Riley.
“Do not get caught up with Miami losing $13 million in cap space in 2021/22 [with Adebayo’s five-year max extension],” ESPN insider and former Nets executive Bobby Marks tweeted. “The front office in Miami is the gold standard of creating room or using other resources [see Jimmy Butler]. No extension would have presented an uncomfortable position for everyone involved.”
Here’s what I see happening now:
If Giannis Antetokounmpo signs a max extension with the Bucks, Washington guard Bradley Beal becomes the No. 1 Heat target if or when he becomes available. The Heat’s interest remains very high, according to a source with direct knowledge.
But it likely would take Tyler Herro, probably either Duncan Robinson or Precious Achiuwa, and a 2025 first-rounder (which can be traded only if OKC is willing to unlock protections on Miami’s 2023 pick) and veteran cap facilitators (such as Kelly Olynyk) to make a competitive offer. And even that might be topped by Denver, Boston or another team.
If Antetokounmpo stays in Milwaukee and Beal either stays with the Wizards or is traded elsewhere, the next most-likely option would be Indiana guard Victor Oladipo — but only if he returns to an All-Star level.
In that scenario — and if Oladipo doesn’t get a lucrative new deal from Indiana — I would expect the Heat to be able to get him next summer if it wants him. (This is an opinion — not a news report — but an educated opinion.) Though I’m told Oladipo would be perfectly happy staying long-term in Indiana, he also very much likes Miami if things don’t work out with the Pacers.
I don’t envision the Heat pursuing Oladipo before the trade deadline unless it’s clear Miami isn’t getting Beal or Antetokounmpo.
If Oladipo took a deal starting at $4 million under the max from Miami next summer, the Heat could afford him, Jimmy Butler, Adebayo and Tyler Herro — without needing to do a sign-and-trade — and fill out the roster with players on minimum deals and exception money.
Beyond those three, there are other less likely 2021 possibilities that cannot at all be ruled out — James Harden (there’s nothing to suggest Miami is in the mix), Paul George (or less likely, fellow potential 2021 unrestricted free agent Kawhi Leonard) if the Clippers underachieve this season, perhaps potential 2021 unrestricted free agent Jrue Holiday if the Milwaukee experience doesn’t meet his expectations, though the Bucks would need to agree to a sign-and-trade.
And there’s often one star who comes out of nowhere to demand a trade. Even with their max extensions, there’s no telling how happy De’Aaron Fox (Sacramento) or Donovan Mitchell (Utah) or Devin Booker (Phoenix) will be in a year. There’s no telling if Portland’s Damian Lillard will be happy in a year, and he didn’t shoot down Dez Bryant’s tweet saying Lillard would look good in a Heat uniform.
Perhaps they will all be happy with their current team in nine months. But nobody knows.
Kelly Oubre, acquired last week by Golden State, is an interesting name in the 2021 unrestricted free agent class.
And a prominent NBA agent not directly involved said if Antetokounmpo agrees to a max extension, he hears the Bucks would agree to the condition that they would trade him down the road if he wants out.
If Beal or Oladipo isn’t acquired at the trade deadline, so much hinges now on what would need to be relinquished in a sign-and-trade for a 2021 free agent in nine months — either for Antetokounmpo next summer if he opts to leave Milwaukee, or Oladipo or Holiday or someone else.
At that point, Miami could offer Herro and a 2025 first-rounder (if OKC unlocks the pick) and/or a 2027 first-rounder (which can be dealt beginning next offseason), though I would be surprised if Herro is offered for Oladipo at any point barring a regression from Herro and a big jump from Oladipo.
And here’s where we remind you that the Heat smartly added 2021-22 team options to the contracts of Goran Dragic, Meyers Leonard, Andre Iguodala and Avery Bradley.
Any of those players could help facilitate a trade from a cap standpoint next summer. Dragic and Leonard have the right to reject any trade before this season’s trade deadline, but that veto power disappears if their 2021-22 team options are exercised next summer.
Miami also could use 2021 restricted free agents Robinson and Kendrick Nunn in a summer of 2021 sign-and-trade with Milwaukee or Indiana, or another team, if those teams covet either of those players.
That scenario of one major trade involving sign-and-trades for multiple players is perfectly legal as long as Robinson and Nunn don’t sign offer sheets with that team, cap expert Larry Coon told me.
Another reason why the Heat was smart in attaching team options to the Dragic/Iguodala/Leonard/Bradley deals: Whichever of those players isn’t dealt as cap facilitators in a trade for a star would help fill out your 2021-22 roster and help overcome the loss of assets in a trade, though it’s difficult to see the Heat exercising the $15 million Iguodala team option for the purpose of keeping him.
Let’s say Beal (who averaged 30.5 points per game last season) tells the Wizards in February that he wants to be traded and includes the Heat on a list of teams that interest him (which I would fully expect if Beal decides he wants out).
Let’s say Washington accepts Herro; Achiuwa or Robinson; Olynyk’s expiring contract, a 2025 first-rounder (presuming OKC would unlock the protections on the pick) and another small cap piece, which would be a legitimate offer if Herro plays well to start this season.
Washington would be getting a player who has played like a top-10 pick (Herro), another with the talent of a lottery pick (Achiuwa) and a future first-rounder. The hope, obviously, would be not to need to include Achiuwa or Robinson but one of those two likely would be necessary.
Miami then could build around Butler, Adebayo, Beal, Nunn, Achiuwa or Robinson, and then could exercise the 2021-22 team options on Bradley, Dragic and perhaps Leonard, plus supplement the team with what likely would be a $6 million taxpayer midlevel exception and a minimum contracts. Miami also would have Olynyk’s Bird rights.
That roster would come with a tax hit, one that could be possibly be avoided if Dragic opts out of $19 million and instead signs for the $10 million midlevel exception that would be available if Miami goes that route, which would impose a 2021-22 hard cap on the Heat in the $143 million range.
But that’s achievable even with a 2021-22 payroll of Adebayo ($28.1 million cap hit in 2021-22), Butler ($36 million), Beal ($34.5 million in 2021-22), Achiuwa ($2.7 million), Dragic (on the $10 million midlevel), Bradley ($6 million), Leonard ($9 million), KZ Okpala ($1.5 million) and minimum deals. That team would cost less than $135 million in payroll, below the projected $142.6 million hard cap — and about $1 million above the tax.
Though Robinson’s 2021-22 cap hit would be just $4.7 million, his actual salary would cost substantially more, making it difficult to stay under a hard cap and keep him in the above scenario - unless Miami dumps Dragic. If Miami didn’t keep Dragic, it could keep Robinson and stay under the hard cap.
Remember: You’re hard-capped if you make a sign and trade.
The complication would be if Adebayo is named to one of the three All-NBA teams or is Defensive Player of the Year or MVP this season. Then his five-year deal would jump from $163 million to $196 million, with his first-year salary rising to $33.7 million. But Miami could deal with that.
Bottom line is there will be opportunities for the Heat to add another star, even if it’s now a bit more difficult. And significantly, your two max-contract All-Stars (Butler and Adebayo) know the Heat appreciates them as much as they appreciate playing here.
PRESEASON SCHEDULE ANNOUNCED
The NBA announced its preseason schedule on Friday, and Heat will play two preseason games: against New Orleans on Dec. 14 at 7 p.m. at AmericanAirlines Arena and at 7 p.m. on Dec. 18 in Tampa against Toronto, where the Raptors are playing home games this season because of Canada’s COVID-19 restrictions.
Fox Sports Sun always carries Heat preseason games but that hasn’t been firmed up yet for these two games.
Every team is playing at least two and no more than four preseason games.
The Heat hasn’t yet said if any fans will be permitted at home games early in the season.
NBA teams can begin individual workouts on Tuesday and full team workouts the weekend of Dec. 5-6. The regular season begins Dec. 22, with each team playing 72 games instead of the usual 82. The first half of the regular season schedule will be announced in the next week or two.
Here’s my Friday media column, including who’s replacing retiring Steve Shapiro at WSVN-Fox 7.
Here’s my Friday Dolphins piece, with injury news on Tua Tagovailoa and other key players and Byron Jones’ search for interceptions.
This story was originally published November 27, 2020 at 4:42 PM.
