Here’s catch with what would happen if the Dolphins, Ravens finish tied. Other scenarios
If you’re looking to commit Dolphins tiebreaker scenarios to memory so you can impress your friends over the holiday weekend, here’s the easy part:
If the 9-5 Dolphins finish tied with the 10-4 Cleveland Browns or 10-4 Indianapolis Colts, Miami would win the tiebreaker with either team — and advance to postseason — by virtue of having a better conference record than either of those teams.
So, hypothetically, if the Dolphins split their final two games on Saturday night at Las Vegas and Jan. 3 at Buffalo, Miami would make the playoffs if the Browns lose at the Jets and home against the Steelers or if Colts lose at Pittsburgh and home against Jacksonville.
That’s simple enough.
But if you want to explain the Dolphins/Baltimore Ravens tiebreaker scenario to friends, they might want to pull up a chair because those tiebreakers hinge on how they get there over the next 11 days.
If the Dolphins beat both the Raiders and Bills and the 9-5 Ravens win at home against the Giants and win at Cincinnati, Miami would win the tiebreaker — and advance to postseason — because the Dolphins would have a better conference record than Baltimore.
If the Dolphins and Ravens both lose their two remaining games, Miami would make the playoffs at 9-7 only if Las Vegas loses its week 17 game at Denver. But if the Raiders won that game against the Broncos — and if the Dolphins and Ravens lose out — Las Vegas would get the seventh and final playoff seed at 9-7 by virtue of a better conference record than Miami and Baltimore.
But what happens if the Dolphins and Ravens each split their final two games to finish 10-6? The winner of that tiebreaker would depend on which game Baltimore loses. Here’s why:
If the Ravens beat the Giants but lose to the Bengals — and if the Dolphins win one of its final two games — Miami would beat Baltimore in a tiebreaker because of a superior conference record.
But if the Ravens lose to the Giants and beat Cincinnati — and if the Dolphins split their final two games — Baltimore would advance to postseason.
Here’s the reason: The first tiebreaker (head to head) wouldn’t come into play because the Dolphins and Ravens don’t play this season.The second tiebreaker (conference record) would resolve nothing in this specific scenario because both teams would be 7-5 in the AFC. The third tiebreaker (best won-loss/tied percentage in common games) would resolve nothing because each team would be 3-2 in common games.
But the fourth tiebreaker is strength of victory, which is the combined record of all teams that lost to the Dolphins and Ravens. And the Ravens almost assuredly would win that tiebreaker with Miami, because Baltimore has defeated teams with a combined record of 53-71-2 while the Dolphins have beaten teams with a combined record of 39-86-1.
So that’s why the Dolphins-Ravens tiebreakers aren’t nearly as simple as the ones involving Cleveland and Indianapolis.
If you’re wondering about a potential Dolphins tie with the 10-4 Tennessee Titans, here’s how that could play out:
If the Dolphins split their final two games and the Titans lose on the road to both Green Bay and Houston, the Dolphins and Titans would each be 10-6 and would own identical 7-5 conference records.
But the Titans would win that specific tiebreaker by virtue of having a better record in games against common opponents, something that would hold up even if Miami wins the game against Buffalo — the one common opponent remaining on both teams’ schedules.
And if the Dolphins win their final two games, they’re in the playoffs regardless of anything.
FLORES WEIGHS IN
A couple of notes from Brian Flores’ Thursday morning news conference:
▪ Flores said running back Myles Gaskin, off the COVID-19 list, “looked good, had some juice energy” in practice on Wednesday but was non-committal about whether he would play Saturday.
▪ Flores said receivers DeVante Parker and Jakeem Grant and tight end Mike Gesicki are “working hard to get out there” on Saturday but was non-committal on their status.
▪ Asked if receiver Preston Williams or defensive tackle Davon Godchaux could return from significant injuries this season, Flores said he wouldn’t rule it out, though it doesn’t appear likely.
▪ Flores said he’s not sure whether starter Derek Carr or backup Marcus Mariota will start at quarterback for Las Vegas on Saturday (8:15 p.m., NFL Network, ABC-10).
But Carr, who has been dealing with a groin injury, practiced fully on Wednesday, raising hopes he will play.
▪ It appears that Miami will give rookie guard Solomon Kindley a week to heal his injured knee, though Flores didn’t address that. There’s no tear in the knee, according to a team source.
▪ Flores praised guard/center Michael Deiter, who replaced the injured Kindley against New England.
“I think Deiter has really developed,” Flores said. “He’s done a great job this year. Goes in last week, played well for us. Has got all the characteristics we’re looking for; he’s tough, competitive. I’m excited for his future here.”
This story was originally published December 24, 2020 at 9:48 AM.
