A position-by-position look at where the Miami Dolphins’ rebuild stands on defense
With the Dolphins nearing the end of their season, a look at where the rebuild stands on defense:
DEFENSIVE END AND OUTSIDE LINEBACKER
What appeared a few months ago to be one of the team’s biggest needs — a pass-rushing defensive end — is far less of one now after Emmanuel Ogbah’s emergence.
Ogbah, who has nine sacks, assuredly will be back for the second and final year of his contract, which carries a $7.5 million salary and $7.5 million cap hit.
Shaq Lawson, who the team lists as a linebacker, has been better than his stats suggest (32 tackles, four sacks) and likely will be safe for 2021 regardless of whether his injured shoulder allows him to play Sunday at Buffalo, because his 2021 cap hit would be higher if he’s cut next spring ($10.6 million) than if he’s on the team ($9.3 million).
Pro Football Focus rates Lawson 28th among 100 edge rushers and 38th as a run defender.
Defensive tackle Christian Wilkins plays a lot as an end when Miami plays a 3-4 front and PFF rates him as average this season (52nd of 100 interior players). We have seen flashes, including a key late-game stop against Las Vegas.
Outside linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel has been revelation this season (rated 14th among edge players by PFF) and projects as a rotation player in 2021.
Defensive end Jason Strowbridge also will be around in 2021 on a cheap rookie deal ($780,000 next season) but has played just 47 defensive snaps this season.
The Dolphins must make a decision on impending free agent Vince Biegel, who’s missing the season with an injury. Van Ginkel’s development makes Biegel’s return questionable, unless it’s on a low-money deal.
The team’s most accomplished linebacker, Kyle Van Noy, can play inside and outside and has six sacks and ranks in the top two in the league for quarterback pressures by a player who isn’t a defensive lineman. PFF rates him the 31st among 87 linebackers against the run. He’ll obviously be back in 2021.
Impending free agent Elandon Roberts had some very good moments — even though PFF rates him the worst linebacker in football — and could earn a one-year deal pending his return from what appeared to be a significant knee injury on Saturday.
If a talented edge player is on the board in the first two days of the draft, Miami likely would consider it. And how that player stacks up as a run defender is every bit as important — if not more so — as his pass rush skills. Keep in mind that Miami’s 40 sacks are ninth in the league.
Improving against the run remains a need; more on this in the defensive tackle part of this column.
First round defensive end options — with Miami’s pick, which now stands 23rd — include UM’s Jaelan Phillips and Greg Rousseau (12th and 20th on his Big Board), Michigan’s Kwity Paye (Kiper has him 25th) and perhaps Wake Forest’s Carlos Basham.
Kiper said of Rousseau: “I didn’t see a top-10 pick on Rousseau’s 2019 tape, and there are some mixed opinions about him from NFL teams. Rousseau has a massive frame, but I didn’t see an explosive first step off the line of scrimmage. He was inconsistent from snap to snap. He had 15.5 sacks, but a few of those were coverage takedowns. The NFL draft, though, is all about potential and traits, and there’s no doubt that Rousseau has both.”
Kiper said of the 272-pound Paye: “I don’t think he has scratched the surface of his talent. He is a gifted athlete with an impressive frame, and he has some scheme versatility if he keeps growing. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up as a defensive tackle in the NFL.”
Kiper said Basham “has a great motor. He’s also good as a run defender.”
Kiper’s top five outside linebackers: Notre Dame’s Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Texas’ Joseph Ossai, Georgia’s Azeez Ojulari, UM’s Quincy Roche and Duke’s Chris Rumph II.
Owusu-Koramoah can also play inside; Kiper rates him the ninth best player in this draft: “a fast and rangy defender who can burst through the line of scrimmage for negative gains. He rarely misses tackles and I’ve been impressed with his ability to read plays and react quickly.”
DEFENSIVE TACKLES
Impending free agent Davon Godchaux’s season-ending biceps injury — combined with Raekwon Davis’ development — makes it unlikely Miami will give Godchaux a pricey offer this offseason, if the Dolphins keep him at all. Pro Football Focus ranked Godchaux 95th of 100 tackles this season before his injury.
Zach Sieler has established himself as a solid rotation piece and is now under contract through 2023. PFF rates him 42nd of 100 interior linemen.
And Davis has improved considerably since September; PFF said he was Miami’s best player on defense during two games of the second half of the season and he now ranks 37th among 100 defensive tackles.
Miami likely won’t need to use a pick in the first two rounds — or great financial resources in free agency — on a defensive tackle. But another rotation player is needed to replace Godchaux if he’s not re-signed.
And despite the improvement of Davis, Sieler and Wilkins — and the additions of Obgah and Lawson — Miami’s opponents have averaged too many yards per carry (4.6); only five teams are worse defensively in that statistic. So another strong run defender is clearly needed.
Kiper has one defensive tackles in his top 25 — Iowa’s Daviyon Dixon at No. 10 — but it’s highly unlikely the Dolphins will use a first-round pick at the position anyway.
Potential second-day prospects: Alabama’s Christian Barmore, Southern Cal’s Jay Tufele, Washington’s Levi Onwuzurike and UCLA’s Osa Odighizuwa.
INSIDE LINEBACKER
Even with inside/outside linebacker Van Noy (earning $12.5 million next season) and Jerome Baker ($920,000 next season) on the roster, Miami could be looking for additional help. Baker has improved this season and looks in good shape to keep his starting job. His seven sacks are a career high.
PFF ranks Van Noy 29th and Baker 41st among 87 qualifying linebackers.
There’s an elite prospect likely available with the Houston first-rounder (that the Dolphins own) in Penn State’s Micah Parsons, who opted out of playing this season. He might be the only defensive player worthy of consideration with that pick.
ESPN’s Todd McShay said Parsons “is an above-average tackler and shows the burst to shoot gaps and be disruptive in run defense.”
Kiper’s top five inside linebackers: Parsons, North Carolina’s Chazz Surratt, Missouri’s Nick Bolton, LSU’s Jabril Cox and West Virginia’s Tony Fields. And Owusu-Koramoah, who can play inside and outside, would be an option (though a somewhat unlikely one) if Houston beats Tennessee Sunday and that Texans pick due Miami falls to as low as No. 9.
CORNERBACK
Two months ago, I would have said it was questionable if Xavien Howard would return next season because of pre-trade-deadline issues that have remained out of public view. Now, I don’t see any logical way the Dolphins could move on from him because he’s their best player.
His interest in a restructured contract, which colleague Armando Salguero reported last week and I’ve heard for weeks, could complicate matters.
Howard — who has four years left on his contract — has a $12.1 million salary (of which $2.5 million is already guaranteed) and $13.5 million cap hit for 2021, but Miami would have only a $4.2 million dead money hit in 2021 if he’s traded next spring. I don’t see how the Dolphins could possibly part ways with him.
Incidentally, Howard’s $12.1 million salary for 2021 would become entirely guaranteed if he sustains a major injury that causes him to fail a physical next spring.
Byron Jones — the priciest offseason addition — assuredly will be here in 2021; his cap hit is $16.1 million in 2021 if he’s on the team, $28.4 million if he’s not.
The Dolphins still have faith in rookie Noah Igbinoghene ($1.1 million base salary in 2021) - despite his struggles earlier this season — but might invest another first-four-round draft pick on a boundary corner who can play nickel, too.
Nik Needham has played well the past two months and will enter the offseason with a good chance to keep that nickel corner job.
It’s a strong cornerback class headlined by Alabama’s Patrick Surtain II (Kiper’s 11th overall prospect), Virginia Tech’s Caleb Farley (13th), Clemson’s Derion Kendrick (22nd), Ohio State’s Shaun Wade (14th) and Washington’s Elijah Molden.
SAFETY
Despite Eric Rowe’s struggles on Saturday against Las Vegas, his overall body of work suggests he should return as a starter next season. He’s due to earn a reasonable $2.5 million in 2021 with a $5.1 million cap hit that would shrink to $1.1 million if he’s cut.
A big decision looms on Bobby McCain, who has played well but is due $6.4 million (non-guaranteed) in 2021, with a $7.1 million cap hit if he’s on the team and a $1.5 million cap hit if he’s not. At this point, McCain has earned a return, but we’ll see if the Dolphins try to restructure that deal.
On a less important note, free-agent addition Clayton Fejedelem — signed primarily because of his special teams prowess — has a $2.5 million cap hit if he’s on the team in 2021, no hit if he’s not. That’s a tough call.
If Miami decides to move on from McCain, here are Kiper’s top five safeties, in order, for 2021: TCU’s Trevon Moehrig, Oregon’s Jevon Holland, USC’s Talanoa Hufanga, Texas’ Caden Sterns and FSU’s Hamsah Nasirildeen. Moehrig is perhaps the only first-rounder in that group (projected for the 20s), but safety is an unlikely use of Miami’s second of two first-rounders.
Here’s my Monday piece with some interesting commentary from NFL people on Tua Tagovailoa and other things.
This story was originally published December 28, 2020 at 3:38 PM.
