Exploring the reasons trading the Miami Heat’s first-round pick could make sense
Nobody has maximized draft picks more than the Miami Heat in recent years, with Josh Richardson, Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo far surpassing the production expected of players selected 40th (Richardson) and late in the lottery (Herro and Adebayo).
But two NBA personnel people said this draft isn’t great, and the question is whether the Heat would be better served moving the 20th overall pick in order to acquire a quality veteran or future draft chips, combined with saving close to $3 million off its books for its 2021 free agent pursuits.
Team president Pat Riley has been noncommittal about whether the Heat will keep the pick, and explained the pros and cons here.
Exploring the two reasons trading the pick could make sense:
▪ Option 1: Trading the pick merely to acquire multiple future picks. The Heat currently is not permitted to trade any future first-round pick because OKC owns Miami’s first-rounders in 2021 and 2023 and teams cannot trade first-rounders in consecutive years.
But let’s say another team loves a player on the board at No. 20 and Miami is lukewarm on available options. The Heat could ask that team for its first-rounders in say, 2021 and 2023 or 2024, with Miami sending the 20th pick to that team and perhaps attaching a second-rounder to that type of deal.
That would give the Heat two first-rounders to use as chips to sweeten any possible future trade bid for Washington’s Bradley Beal, another All Star or even a potential sign-and-trade for Giannis Antetokounmpo next summer, which might be needed if the cap falls lower than projected or if Adebayo gets a max contract this summer, which Adebayo assuredly would welcome.
▪ Option 2: Using the 20th pick as a sweetener to acquire a quality starter whose contract expires after 2020-21. Let’s be clear: That player — unless it’s a superstar — cannot have any more time left on his contract than one season because the Heat wants to preserve flexibility for Antetokounmpo in 2021.
So who would fit that expiring contract scenario in the coming weeks? First, let’s exclude All-Stars entering the final year of their deals such as Antekounmpo, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Kyle Lowry. They’re going nowhere despite Shaquille O’Neal saying the Clippers should trade George.
Among other All Stars entering the final year of contracts, there are two worth monitoring: New Orleans’ Jrue Holiday and Indiana’s Victor Oladipo.
It’s possible that Indiana could make available Oladipo, who’s set to earn $21 million, and Oladipo likes the Heat. But my sense is the Heat has cooled on the notion of acquiring Oladipo via trade unless it were for well below his value. In other words, forget Tyler Herro or even Duncan Robinson in such a deal.
I also wouldn’t expect the Heat to give up Herro for Holiday, who is reportedly being made available in trade talks. While Miami is expected to inquire — if it hasn’t happened already — other teams like Denver and Brooklyn are positioned to offer more than Miami could without Herro in the package.
And a Holiday trade comes with this risk: He has a $26.3 million player option in 2021-22. If he surprisingly struggles this season — or sustains a major injury — he could opt into that contract, thus torpedoing any Heat plans to forge significant cap space next summer.
Here are more realistic expiring deals that wouldn’t require sacrificing Herro or likely Duncan Robinson: Chicago’s Otto Porter Jr. (due $28 million and coming off an injury-shortened, underwhelming season, but skilled), San Antonio’s Demar DeRozan (averaged 22.1 points and shot 53.1 percent but 9 for 35 on threes and subpar defensively; earning $27 million); San Antonio’s Rudy Gay ($14 million) and Patty Mills ($11.6 million) and Sacramento’s Nemenja Bjelica ($7.1 million).
Phoenix’s Kelly Oubre ($14.3 million) is intriguing, but he’s good enough that the Suns likely would ask for Herro or Robinson, and I wouldn’t do that.
Here’s one option that, to me, would be sensible and realistic to explore: San Antonio’s LaMarcus Aldridge. (And to be clear, this is an opinion here, not reporting of any trade talks.)
He has one season left at $24 million, and even though he’s 35, he’s still effective and would vastly improve Miami’s power rotation.
Last season, he averaged 18.9 points and 7.4 rebounds and shot 49.3 percent from the field and 38.9 percent on threes (61 for 157). At 6-10, he could give the Heat the size it badly lacked in the Finals without sacrificing shooting.
Yes, the Heat made its playoff run going small with a more athletic power forward (Jae Crowder) instead of a center (such as Aldridge), and I could understand those who say Miami should stick to that opening lineup approach. But the Heat also was very good when Meyers Leonard started early in the season, and Miami clearly needs more skilled size to match up with the few teams that have a wealth of it, led by the Lakers.
Riley pursued Aldridge five years ago, and the Heat and Spurs discussed him before this past season’s trade deadline, according to a source briefed on the situation.
A hypothetical deal could be as simple as Miami’s pick at 20, a future second-rounder, Kelly Olynyk (unlikely to opt out of $13.2 million for next season) and Andre Iguodala ($15 million) for Aldridge ($24 million) and a cap throw-in.
If the Spurs asked for Kendrick Nunn, Miami could counter by asking for a future first-rounder (2021 or 2022) and/or the expiring contracts of Mills (11.6 points per game) or Gay (10.8 ppg).
Chris Silva — pursued by the Spurs after the draft — could also be a potential player in this purely hypothetical scenario.
Such a scenario — and we repeat, this is a purely hypothetical idea — would give the Heat a potential starting group of Adebayo, Aldridge, Jimmy Butler, Robinson and Herro and a bench of Goran Dragic and Crowder (presuming both are re-signed, with Miami preserving their Bird Rights in this scenario), Nunn if still on the team (or Mills or Gay), perhaps Leonard, Silva, KZ Okpala and a free agent acquired with Miami’s $9.5 million midlevel exception (Aron Baynes? Jordan Clarkson? Wes Matthews?).
Derrick Jones Jr. and Solomon Hill would also remain options, with the Heat retaining their Bird rights.
Would I do any of those hypothetical deals? That would depend on other trade options and who’s available at 20. But if the Spurs had interest, it would be worth at least evaluating closely.
Keep in mind that Miami must technically make the pick at No. 20 on Nov. 18, because teams cannot trade first-round picks in consecutive years and OKC owns Miami’s 2021 pick.
But there’s a way to circumvent this, of course; the Heat — should it trade the pick — likely would have a deal in place on draft night so that the Heat could select the preferred player of its draft partner.
So should the Heat trade the 20th pick? Only if the Heat isn’t in love with a player on the board at No. 20 or has a chance to get a player who could be a one-year difference-maker or two future first-rounders, which could expedite in a future hypothetical trade bid for Beal.
There’s also an argument to be made that Miami already has enough developing young players — Herro, Robinson, Nunn, Silva, Okpala — and adding another in a condensed season might not be the best way to go.
On the flip side, getting cheap labor for four seasons — and first-round picks are comparatively cheap labor — is helpful with the salary cap expected to be flat because of the impact of COVID-19 on league revenues.
This story was originally published November 5, 2020 at 4:03 PM.
