One edge the Marlins have over every team in baseball. And where they stand, by position
Chatter on the Miami Marlins future after a surprise playoff berth in Year 3 of the rebuild:
▪ From a future payroll commitment standpoint (which, to be clear, includes all years in the future), the Marlins have the least guaranteed money on the books of any team (just $14.5 million), a far cry from when this ownership inherited Giancarlo Stanton’s $325 million deal.
For perspective, 16 teams have more than $200 million guaranteed on their books, topped by the Angels’ $651 million.
If this young group keeps improving, the Marlins next season could achieve what any low-revenue team hopes to do: be a playoff contender with a low payroll.
For 2021, the only big-league player commitments on their books are $12.5 million for outfielder Starling Marte (team option), $9.5 million for outfielder Corey Dickerson, $5 million for shortstop Miguel Rojas and $4 million for closer Brandon Kintzler, which is a team option.
That’s just $31 million, if the Kintzler option is exercised (he would be owed $250,000 if the team option is bypassed) and if the Marte option is picked up, which is highly likely based on team executive Michael Hill’s earlier comment that the Marlins did not acquire Marte as a one-year rental this season.
The team’s notable free agents: outfielder Matt Joyce (.252, 2, 14) and relievers Brad Boxberger and Nick Vincent.
Brian Anderson, Jesus Aguilar, Jorge Alfaro, Garrett Cooper, Yimi Garcia, Ryne Stanek, Jose Urena, Drew Steckenrider and Richard Bleier will be arbitration eligible, but none will break the bank. It’s questionable whether Urena will be tendered after another underwhelming season and an injury that kept him sidelined for the playoffs.
Excluding Urena and Steckenrider (who didn’t pitch in 2020 because of an injury), baseballtraderumors.com projects the other arbitration eligibles to make a combined $12.4 million next season.
Every other young player on the roster will be under team control and very cheap. So it’s quite realistic for the Marlins to have a payroll below $52 million in 2021 and be competitive.
▪ Here’s one big question that’s unresolved: Will there be a designated hitter in the National League in 2021? The commissioner’s office has not said.
Having a DH would be helpful, because then the Marlins could break in first baseman Lewin Diaz — if he earns the job — and retain Aguilar as a designated hitter, with Garrett Cooper playing first base if Diaz isn’t ready or playing right field otherwise.
CEO Derek Jeter recently made clear how much he values Aguilar.
“He knows he’s going to be in the lineup day in and day out and get that opportunity to produce,” Jeter said. “The impact he’s had this particular season [has been significant]. You need people who will bring the energy, and Jesus is one of those guys. He’s rubbed off on our young players. We wouldn’t be in the position we are now if it wasn’t for the acquisition of Jesus.”
Another smart aspect to the Aguilar pickup last year: He has two more years of arbitration eligibility, keeping him under team control through 2022. Diaz was only 6 for 39 this season (.154) but the Marlins feel good about his future.
▪ Alfaro presents a conundrum. There’s a strong case to keep him because he’s a power-hitting catcher and is under team control for three more years. But his average dipped to .227 and his handling of the pitching staff — and calling games — simply must improve, as one Marlins baseball employee acknowledged.
The Marlins pitching staff is clearly better with Chad Wallach behind the plate, and that makes Wallach highly likely to return next season. He’s under team control for another four years and not yet arbitration eligible.
If the National League adopts a DH, there would be even more reason to use Wallach as much or more than Alfaro next season because of his value handling the pitching staff.
▪ If there’s a DH, the lineup could look this way: An outfield of Dickerson, Marte and Cooper or Harold Ramirez or Monte Harrison or Lewis Brinson in a platoon (or at some point Jesus Sanchez); Aguilar or Cooper or Lewin Diaz at first base; Jazz Chisholm or Isan Diaz at second base (this should be the most interesting position competition next spring); Miguel Rojas at shortstop, Brian Anderson at third and perhaps the Alfaro/Wallach tandem behind the plate, with Aguilar and Cooper at DH if there is one, and Jon Berti available to fill in everywhere but catcher.
If there’s no DH, then Aguilar figures to start at first and Cooper in right, though Don Mattingly has said Cooper is better at first. Cooper played 31 games in right in 2019, none this season.
What if Chisholm and Diaz both prove worthy of everyday jobs? That would be a great problem to have. In that scenario, Chisholm eventually could go back to shortstop with Rojas at third and Anderson in right field.
One of the big differences from a year ago is this team now has multiple appealing position player options, as opposed to not enough.
▪ The battle for rotation spots behind Sandy Alcantara, Sixto Sanchez and Pablo Lopez should be fascinating. Edward Cabrera, whose mild shoulder issue earlier summer kept him from being a rotation option, should be a favorite for the fourth or fifth spot just based on his elite stuff.
He will compete with Elieser Hernandez, Trevor Rodgers, Braxton Garrett, Daniel Castano and Nick Neidert likely for two spots. The Marlins could add a veteran to replace Urena, but that’s not essential. Jordan Yamamoto and Robert Dugger would be last-resort options. And Max Meyer — if he’s as good as advertised — won’t be far behind.
You can see a dominant rotation coming together, and that should give everybody reason for hope that success could be sustainable, at least until these players become too expensive.
▪ Another reason the Bleier/James Hoyt summer bullpen pickups were enlightened moves: Bleier is under team control for two more years, Hoyt for four.
But if the Marlins are going to spend in free agency, the bullpen would be a smart place to allocate more resources. Another veteran with closer experience would help supplement Kintzler (if retained) and Garcia, Bleier, Hoyt, perhaps Boxberger or Vincent and perhaps Jeff Brigham or Jordan Holloway or Yamamoto, who has much to prove.
▪ The most significant offseason development will be the resolution of the next TV contract with Fox Sports Florida. The Marlins — whose TV contract is expiring — need to convince Sinclar (the owner of the Fox regionals) to at least triple their annual rights from $20 million. But in this economy, that’s very much in question.
“There’s no update,” Jeter told the Miami Herald’s Jordan McPherson. “Obviously these are unprecedented times for everyone, and I think things were put on pause there a few months back, but we expect that to pick up here shortly.”
Marlins games averaged an 0.83 rating this year on Fox Sports Florida, compared with a 0.82 last season. Live streaming of Marlins games rose by 43 percent on Fox Sports Florida.
This story was originally published October 16, 2020 at 4:14 PM.
