Miami Heat offseason primer: Who’s available, what targets are realistic and what’s next
Here’s the good news for the Miami Heat heading into the NBA offseason:
Even if Miami gives generous one-year deals to Goran Dragic and Jae Crowder, the Heat will still be in position to add a rotation player this offseason, perhaps a very good one if the market breaks just right.
The likelihood is that the Heat will operate as an over-the-cap team instead of as a room team - a strategy that would allow Miami to exceed the cap to re-sign Dragic and Crowder (and Derrick Jones Jr. and Meyers Leonard if Miami wishes), but also leave the Heat with a $9.3 million mid-level salary cap exception to spend.
The league and union haven’t determined next year’s cap and tax line, but nobody would be surprised if this past season’s numbers ($109 million cap, $132.6 million tax line) are used next season because of the pandemic’s impact on league revenue. Here’s where the math stands:
Unless the Heat trades the 20th overall pick in the Nov. 18 draft, Miami will have $86 million committed to 10 players for next season, including a $5.2 waive-and-stretch hit on Ryan Anderson. That’s assuming Kelly Olynyk doesn’t bypass a $12.2 million player option for next season; it would seem unlikely that Olynyk would opt out of that guaranteed money with so much uncertain about the NBA’s financial landscape.
With the Heat likely unwilling to offer more than one-year deals in order to preserve ample cap space in 2021, Miami is expected to make generous single-season offers to Dragic (who earned $19.1 million this past season) and Crowder, who earned $7.8 million. It’s possible Miami could give them two-years deals but only if year two is a team option.
If the Heat, hypothetically, gives Dragic $20 million and Crowder $10 million in one-year deals, that would bring Miami’s cap commitments to $116 million.
If this past season’s tax line is used next season, that scenario would give Miami $16 million to spend and stay under the tax line. And staying under the tax line assuredly will be the priority.
But in that scenario, the Heat couldn’t go out and sign a $16 million free agent because Miami would not be operating as a room team. So the Heat would have four realistic options with that money:
1. Sign a player with all or part of the $9.3 million mid-level exception and then sign Jones or Leonard with whatever is left, if possible and if Miami chooses.
2. Sign Jones and Leonard and use whatever is left on outside free agents with exception money.
3. Use the mid-level exception and another exception: a $3.6 million bi-annual exception and/or its $7.5 million trade exception. None of those three exceptions can be combined.
4. Trade a player on its roster for someone making somewhat more money, under league cap rules.
Options one and three on that list are the most interesting, especially if the Heat can cajole one of the top free agents in a weak class to take mid-level money. What’s tricky is that the Heat also would need to convince any targets to take a one-year deal, so as not to diminish 2021 cap space.
Barring a shocking turn of events, it would seem unrealistic to expect any of the top free agents to take mid-level money for one season, making Miami a long shot to land free agents Serge Ibaka, Montrezl Harrell, Fred VanVleet, Danilo Gallinari, Joe Harris and very likely, Davis Bertans, unless the Heat acquired any in a trade and was willing to sacrifice 2021 cap space in the process (which is also unlikely).
Here are more realistic mid-level targets among power rotation players: Denver’s Paul Millsap (11.6 points per game, 5.7 rebounds per game, 43.5 percent on threes but 34); Clippers power forward Marcus Morris (16.7 ppg, 40.8 percent on threes), Phoenix center Aron Baynes (11.5 ppg, 5.6 rebounds per game, 35.1 on threes), Raptors veteran center Marc Gasol (7.5 ppg, 6.3 rebounds, 38.5 percent on threes but 35 and not worthy of a full mid-level) and New Orleans’ Derrick Favors (9.0 ppg, 9.8 rebounds, no three-point game).
Former All-Star center DeMarcus Cousins remains in play. Miami tried to sign him 15 months ago, but he opted to sign with the Lakers and tore his ACL five weeks later, in August, and was waived on Feb. 23. Cousins is only 30 and a four-time All Star but has played in just 78 games since the end of the 2016-17 season. Nevertheless, the Heat figures to again explore this possibility.
And don’t discount Cleveland’s Tristan Thompson (12.0 ppg, 10.1 rebounds), who would give Miami a rugged big behind Bam Adebayo. After going eight seasons without hitting a three-pointer (in nine attempts), Thompson hit 9 of 23 this season, which could make him more appealing to the Heat because Miami values that skill in its backup bigs.
Boston’s Enes Kanter ($5.1 million player option) always puts up numbers but seems unlikely as a Heat option because of his defensive shortcomings. Among others bigs, the Lakers’ two centers - Dwight Howard (7.5 points, 7.3 rebounds) and JaVale McGee (player option) — as well as Denver’s Mason Plumlee (7.2 ppg, 5.2 rbg) and Washington’s Ian Mahinmi (7.4 ppg, 5.7 rbg) should also be available.
There are a handful of mid-level-exception-type 6-4 to 6-6 wings who could be in play around the league for part of the mid-level, such as Alec Burks (15.0 ppg, 38.5 percent on threes), Glenn Robinson (11.7, 39.1 on threes) and Jordan Clarkson (15.2, 36.8 on threes). Those three players would offer more offense but less defense than Derrick Jones, who figures to explore other options after losing his rotation spot in the playoffs.
The Kings’ 6-4 Kent Bazemore (8.8, 34.4 on threes) also wouldn’t warrant a full mid-level exceptions, and the Spurs’ Bryn Forbes (at 6-2) is smaller than the Heat prototype. Clippers point guard Reggie Jackson (11.9, 39.3 on threes) could get mid-level money but would make sense here only if Dragic surprisingly leaves.
Detroit’s Christian Wood (13.1, 6.3) likely will get a multiyear deal somewhere. Don’t expect a reunion for Portland’s Hassan Whiteside, and there’s no match here with Carmelo Anthony.
So the Heat has options and lots of space under the tax line and the ability to keep Dragic and Crowder and sign a quality rotation piece without jeopardizing 2021 cap space.
But the free agent class is shallow, and if the Heat holds off on making a mega-move until it has max cap space in 2021, its ability to incrementally improve this offseason will depend on whether the appealing second tier of free agents - such as Millsap and Morris - are amenable to Miami’s exception money or whether they will find more lucrative multiyear deals elsewhere, with only five teams expected to have much cap space.
Here’s my Monday piece on the difficult Bam Adebayo contract situation and the consequences.
Here’s my Tuesday Dolphins 6-pack.
Here’s my Tuesday report on a major Dolphins injury and news from the offensive coordinator.
This story was originally published October 13, 2020 at 6:41 PM.
