Where does Heat’s Herro rank among rookie playoff performances this century? Here’s a look
Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro isn’t merely the top-performing rookie still playing in the NBA bubble.
This also can now be said: What the precocious 20-year-old is accomplishing ranks among the top half dozen playoff performances by a rookie this century.
Through 12 playoff games, Herro is averaging 14.8 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.0 assists while shooting 41.7 percent from the field and 36.3 percent from the line.
The rookies (minimum 10 games) who have played better than that in a single postseason in the 21st century? You can count them on one hand:
The 2018 rookie troika of Donovan Mitchell (24.4 points, 5.9 rebounds, 4.2 assists), Jayson Tatum (18.5 points 4.4 rebounds, 2.7 assists) and Ben Simmons (16.3 points, 9.4 rebounds and 2.7 assists) — plus Dwyane Wade, who averaged 18.0 points and 5.6 assists in 13 games in his Heat rookie playoff debut in 2004.
Tony Parker (15.5, 2.9 rebounds, 4.0 assists in 10 playoff games as a rookie) would be close with Herro for the fifth spot.
Those five have a combined 23 All-Star Game appearances: Wade 13 times, Parker six, Simmons twice and Tatum and Mitchell once so far, with more likely to come.
In the top-postseasons-by-a-rookie category this century, perhaps you can make a case for Harrison Barnes, who averaged 16.1 in postseason as a rookie in 2013.
But two things make Herro’s body of work a top five-playoff performance for any rookie this century, behind only Mitchell, Tatum, Simmons and Wade:
▪ Herro’s clutch shooting. He’s 5 for 11 on late-game threes, most clutch threes ever by a rookie in a single postseason.
▪ Per Statmuse, Herro is only the fourth rookie in history to score in double figures in his first 12 playoff games, joining Elgin Baylor (1959), Jerry West (1961) and Alvan Adams (1976).
“That kid is going to be scary,” guard Goran Dragic said. “He’s amazing. That kid, it’s fascinating to me what he does. Shows no fear. He’s confident. That’s why we trust him. That’s why he’s making huge plays. He’s going to keep getting better.”
And don’t just take Dragic’s word for it.
“He is something special,” ESPN analyst and former NBA forward Richard Jefferson said, noting Herro’s ball-handling — combined with his shooting — is “what makes him unique. He’s going to be a problem for a long time.”
Jimmy Butler was mentioning the other day that Herro is “just so comfortable, so confident. He plays with a swag that you’d think he was going on 31 like me. And we love him for that.”
But that outward confidence can mask one of the qualities his teammates most respect about Herro: his work ethic.
Jae Crowder was explaining how Herro’s success is no coincidence, because he has tirelessly worked on his game when few — if anyone — are watching. No aspect has gone overlooked in his preparation; he has drilled on finishing near the basket, watched tape privately with Heat coach Erik Spoelstra to improve defensively, and studied other guards on video, primarily Devin Booker.
“He wants to improve; he wants to be great and that’s why we love him,” Dragic said.
To put his playoff numbers in context, consider this:
Wade’s per-36 minute averages during his first playoff run (13 games) were 16.5 points, 3.7 rebounds, 5.2 assists. Herro’s per-36 averages are very comparable: 16.1 points, 6.1 rebounds and 4.3 assists.
“He’s played now for 12 months,” Spoelstra said. “Gone through two training camps. He’s been in a lot of these big moments and right now we need a lot of the skill set that he brings off the dribble, behind the three-point line, his passing. You need some plays that are unscripted, and Tyler is pretty good in those situations.”
And this shouldn’t be overlooked, either: Some elite players have delivered modest playoff debuts. Kobe Bryant averaged 8.2 points and shot 38 percent in his nine-game rookie playoff sojourn. James Harden averaged 7.7, Kawhi Leonard 8.6 in significant minutes.
And there’s this: Herro has 177 points in postseason. Only five rookies during previous postseasons this century have scored more: Tatum (351), Mitchell (268), Wade (234), Manu Ginobili (226; he averaged only 9.4 ppg but played in 24 playoff games his rookie year) and Barnes (193).
Denver’s Michael Porter — who is considered a rookie after missing his first season with injury — had 184 points in these playoffs entering Tuesday’s Lakers-Nuggets Western Conference finals game. But he has played four more games - five after Tuesday — than Herro and is averaging significantly fewer points per game (11.5).
If the Heat makes the Finals and Denver doesn’t, Herro could rise to at least second on that list.
“I live for the big moments,” Herro said. “I want the big moment. My teammates and coaches trust me. They feed life into me. That’s what we work for as players -- the big moments, and I love being on the big stage.”
UPDATE ON NEXT SEASON
During a Tuesday interview with Bob Costas for CITIZEN by CNN, NBA commissioner Adam Silver said his “best guess” is the 2020-21 season will begin in January, at the earliest. That would technically make it the 2021 season.
Silver added that the hope is to play a standard 82-game regular season plus playoffs.
”The goal would be to play games in home arenas in front of fans, but there’s still a lot that we need to learn in terms of rapid testing, for example,” Silver said.
“Would that be a means of getting fans into our buildings. Will there be other protections? Some of the things we’re learning down in Orlando currently on the campus down there and also clearly learning a lot from other sports, what baseball is currently doing, what football is doing sort of as college sports is now -- has begun playing. So, there’s a lot of new information out there in the marketplace that we’re looking to absorb.”
When asked about a later start date to the season meaning there’s less of a chance NBA players get an Olympic opportunity late next July, Dragic said: “I’m retired, so I don’t care about that question if I’m honest. But if I go back to myself, it’s not going to be anything different. Even when it’s the offseason, I still work, I still maintain my body, and it’s going to be the same this time. If the season starts in January or February, I’ll try to get home and work out and be ready for next season.”
Here’s my Tuesday piece on Jimmy Butler and the national commentator imploring him to shoot more.
Here’s my Tuesday piece examining whether more people locally and nationally watched the Heat or Hurricanes when they aired at the same time on Saturday.
Here’s my Tuesday Miami Dolphins piece on surprising developments at running back.
Here’s what Dolphins coach Brian Flores was talking about at his press briefing today.
This story was originally published September 22, 2020 at 5:46 PM.
