Waiting for Marlins young bats to hit? What the team wants you to know if you’re worried
With the Miami Marlins entering the first weekend of September very much in playoff contention, there’s a lot to be encouraged about this rebuild, from the impressive young pitching, to the acquisition of an All-Star caliber bat (center fielder Starling Marte) to the genuine attempt to be competitive this season.
So the future looks generally bright and Derek Jeter and Bruce Sherman seemingly made the correct decision embarking on this major rebuild.
But there’s one thing that might create some uneasiness: Are any of these top hitting prospects going to hit?
Some of the (very) early returns have been worrisome. But Marlins manager Don Mattingly suggests there’s no reason for concern and explains why:
“Pitchers always seem to be a little different because they’re the ones who’ve got the ball and usually pitching is going to stop hitting to some degree. Even if you’re not great, you’re probably OK, so it doesn’t look the same.
“I think hitters in general, if you’re talking to baseball people, you see very few young guys come up and just tear it up right away. You guys have maybe had a couple here in Miami with [Christian Yelich] and guys like that who are really good right away. There’s [Ken] Griffey Jr., there’s [Juan] Soto, there’s [Ronald] Acuna. There’s [Mike] Trout, maybe.
“But most of the guys have to come up, see where they’re at and go through the process. And I think that’s what in general happens. If a guy comes up and tears it up, he’s more of an exception than the rule.”
So Mattingly insists he’s not distressed by the painful early at-bats of some of these top prospects.
“I don’t get discouraged,” he said. “You can see the swings and the talent. More than anything, you get to see the kid and how he works and how he handles it.
“You can kind of tell the ones that they get beat up a little bit but the head’s still up and they still believe in themselves. And they just find out this is a different level and you’ve got to continue to get better. Some of the little holes in their swing, once you get here, you get exposed a little bit and then it gets around the league like wildfire. And you’ve got to make some adjustments. That’s usually what it takes.”
Fact is, except for Lewis Brinson (and it doesn’t look good with him), it’s far too soon to know what any of the Marlins’ top young hitting prospects will become based on small sample sizes.
Here are the early returns:
▪ Top outfield prospect Monte Harrison was 4 for 30 (.133) with 18 strikeouts before being sent back to the Jupiter training site.
▪ Top outfield prospect Jesus Sanchez was 1 for 25 (.040) with 11 strikeouts during his cameo with the Marlins before being dispatched back to Jupiter.
▪ Lewin Diaz, expected to the first baseman of the future, is at 5 for 35 (.143) with 10 strikeouts.
▪ Second baseman Isan Diaz is at .176 in 188 career at-bats and is now working his way back at Jupiter after MLB allowed him to reverse his decision to opt out.
▪ Brinson is hitting .191 this season and .184 in 702 career at-bats and it’s unrealistic to consider him anything more than a backup outfielder at this point.
▪ Shortstop Jazz Chisholm, promoted a few days ago, is 0 for 4 and will get a chance to compete with Diaz at second base, in addition to potentially being used at shortstop long term, where the Marlins are set in the immediate future with Miguel Rojas.
Chisholm, rated by MLB as the No. 70 prospect, has hit only .255 in four minor-league seasons (but .284 in 23 games at Double A Jacksonville last season) with 56 homers and 173 RBI in 315 games.
The Marlins need Chisholm to become a very good starting big-league middle infielder to justify the Zac Gallen trade, which is becoming more painful by the day.
Gallen pitched seven shutout innings against the Dodgers on Wednesday and has a 1.80 ERA for Arizona this season. What’s more, he has yet to give up more than three runs in his first career 23 starts, a big-league record.
Except for Brinson, it would be patently absurd to form judgments on any of these prospects from such a small sample size. But it would be comforting to see one of them - any of them - showing significant and tangible offensive growth by the end of the season.
All have immense physical gifts, though there are a few red flags, including Harrison’s historically high strikeout rate in the minors.
As the analytics web site, fangraphs, has noted: “The Marlins seem to have a taste for divisive, polarizing prospects who much of the industry perceives as risky. The Marlins have targeted toolsy, high-risk prospects who might struggle because of unstable contact profiles, but otherwise have premium physical ability.”
It would be reassuring, of course, if Brian Anderson - who has all the intangibles and physical skills that any team would love in a nucleus player - would be hitting better than his current .236. At least there’s a history of performance there (.261, 20 homers, 66 RBI in 121 games last season before a season-ending injury).
Beyond the aforementioned players (excluding Brinson and Anderson), we also have no idea whether shortstop Jose Devers (.278 in the low-level minors) or outfielders Connor Scott (.240 in the low-level minors), J.J. Bleday (.257 at Jupiter last season) or either Mesa brother will hit big league pitching, though a couple of scouts told me they would be surprised if Bleday isn’t at least a solid big-leaguer. And we might not know until 2022 or beyond.
We’ve always been high on outfielder Peyton Burdick, who tore up Class A pitching last season but wasn’t included in the Marlins’ 60-player pool for 2020.
But as Mattingly said, we need to be patient, even if everyone wants to see immediate results. He mentioned how there are very few position players who don’t return to the minors after their first taste of the majors.
“Our owner [Derek Jeter] came up, played a little bit and [went] back down,” Mattingly recalled, having been a Yankee teammate at the time.
Jeter made his MLB debut on May 29, 1995, as a replacement for injured Pat Kelly and returned to Triple A after hitting .250 in 13 games. That was the final year of Mattingly’s career.
“There are very few that tear it up right away and don’t have to go back down to the minor leagues,” Mattingly said. “We kind of expect bumps in the road.”
Credit the Marlins for not just gifting jobs to the kids and spending money to acquire legitimate bats (Corey Dickerson, Jesus Aguilar) and this week, Marte, who is the best hitter the organization has had since trading Yelich.
But at least four of these young position prospects need to be quality everyday players by 2022, or that would be a setback to the rebuild.
Here’s my Thursday piece with information on soon-to-be new Marlins outfielder Griffin Conine and other tidbits.
This story was originally published September 4, 2020 at 5:12 PM.
