Two veteran NBA scouts break down the Miami Heat-Indiana Pacers playoff series. Nunn news
So what can we expect when the Heat and Pacers open their first-round playoff series at 4 p.m. Tuesday on Fox Sports Sun and TNT?
We solicited the views of two veteran NBA scouts, who requested anonymity because neither is authorized by their teams to speak publicly:
▪ Both said they would make the Heat the clear favorite and would be very surprised if the Heat lost the series.
“That would be a bad loss,” one of them said. “With Indiana not having [All Star forward Domantas] Sabonis, Miami is clearly the better team.”
▪ Both scouts said they see only a few areas where Indiana has a possible advantage.
One gave point guard Malcolm Brogdon a slight edge over Goran Dragic if Dragic remains a starter (which is now expected), noting “Malcolm can defend, is younger, and a better athlete.” The other said that matchup is a wash because Dragic is the better scorer.
The only other potential trouble spot for the Heat, both scouts said, is figuring out who would defend Victor Oladipo if Butler defends T.J. Warren.
“They would be at a deficit with Jae Crowder, Duncan Robinson or Dragic,” one scout said. “Crowder doesn’t have the foot speed to stay on Oladipo. But Miami plays a lot of zone, and that could be what they do. Robinson is not great as an individual defender, but he’s becoming a good team defender.
“To me, Crowder on Warren and Butler on Oladipo is the better way to go. And Derrick Jones [if his neck strain heals quickly] and Andre Iguodala can guard Warren when they go to the bench.”
But the other scout said: “Knowing Jimmy the way I do, even if Spo [Erik Spoelstra] wants Jimmy to match up with Oladipo, Jimmy is going to tell whoever is guarding Warren to switch so he can guard Warren. Jimmy is going to make it personal.”
When the teams met last Monday, Butler opened on Warren, Crowder on Oladipo, Dragic on guard Aaron Holiday, Robinson on Brogdon, and Bam Adebayo on Myles Turner.
▪ One scout warned that Holiday’s speed could be problematic for a Heat defense that has been vulnerable off the dribble.
“Aaron Holiday is better than I thought. His quickness could be an issue; he’s quicker than anyone the Heat has,” the scout said. “You could put Nunn on him.”
▪ One of the scouts said the clear difference in the rosters is players 4 through 10.
With the Heat, if Butler, Adebayo and arguably Robinson are the top 3, that would mean Dragic, Herro, Crowder, Nunn, Kelly Olynyk, Andre Iguodala and Derrick Jones Jr. compared with Brogdon (if you rate Oladipo, Warren and Myles Turner as Indiana’s top healthy three), plus Aaron Holiday, Justin Holiday, Doug McDermott, T.J. McConnell, Goga Bitadze and JaKarr Sampson or Edmond Sumner or T.J. Leaf.
One scout said those groupings definitively favor Miami.
“Indiana’s six through nine isn’t exactly awe-inspiring, and 10 through 13 is weak, a lot of journeymen and non-rotation players,” one scout said. “One good thing you say is both Holidays can shoot. Clear edge for Miami with the bench; I’m a huge Iguodala fan.”
▪ One scout said this could be a short series if Turner doesn’t hit from the mid-range and on threes; he’s a 34.4 percent shooter from beyond the arc:
“Turner has to make shots; is Bam going to go out and guard him? Turner is a 3-point threat.”
The other scout marvels at how Adebayo has grown: “Bam is ridiculous defensively; he can guard on the perimeter, can switch 1 to 5.”
▪ The scouts said they’re bullish on the Heat entering the playoffs.
“One through 10, they’re as good as anyone in the league in terms of NBA players,” one scout said. “Is that good enough with one so-called star [Butler] to get you to the Finals? It’s certainly good enough to win a round. Their depth is impressive. They have guys who can shoot, a go-to guy, veterans, good coaching.
“Robinson has been unbelievable; he’s getting better by the game. We were talking about why he went undrafted and everybody missed the boat on him. You have to give Miami credit for finding and developing these guys. Would he have shown the same level of development with 29 other teams? Probably not.”
▪ One scout said he couldn’t see Indiana winning more than one game in the series unless Oladipo suddenly begins to look like the pre-injury Oladipo, the one who was an All-Star before sustaining a ruptured quad tendon in January 2019.
“Oladipo is just not at the same level as before,” one scout said. Said the other scout: “He’s had his moments but he really hasn’t been that good since returning. Miami has way too much experience and depth for them.”
Oladipo is averaging 16 points on 40 percent shooting in the Disney bubble.
▪ One scout — giving merely an opinion and not inside information — said he expects Oladipo to end up on the Heat in 2021-22. But both scouts said they would prefer to have Pelicans guard Jrue Holiday than Oladipo if Miami cannot snag Giannis Antetokounmpo next summer.
“Jrue is a better defender, a more efficient player than Victor,” one scout said.
The other scout said, from a Heat perspective, that he wants to watch Oladipo next season before making that decision but “Jrue Holiday is a little safer in terms of what you’re going to get. He’s more of a two than a [point guard]; he commits too many turnovers [3.1, 3.0 on average the past two years]. Some players say he’s the NBA’s best perimeter defender, but I wouldn’t go that far. I would trade assets for Bradley Beal instead of going after either of those two.”
NUNN OFF BENCH
Rookie guard Kendrick Nunn, who started all 67 of his appearances during the regular season, said Monday he has been told he will come off the bench for Game 1 of the Heat-Pacers series.
That means Erik Spoelstra likely is sticking with Goran Dragic as a starter after playing Dragic off the bench all season. Dragic ended up starting three of 59 games this season, including two during the NBA re-start at the Disney complex.
The new likely starting lineup of Dragic, Jae Crowder, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Duncan Robinson outscored teams by 33 points in 51 minutes as a quintet this season. They were a plus 18 in 24 minutes together in the Disney bubble.
This story was originally published August 17, 2020 at 2:34 PM.
