The pandemic could somewhat change this one aspect of the Miami Dolphins’ rebuilding plan
Some unsolicited advice to Miami Dolphins players Davon Godchaux, Raekwon McMillan, Ted Karras, Vince Biegel and the rest of Miami’s group of potential 2021 unrestricted free agents:
You better be really, really impactful in your roles this season, because money is going to be tight next offseason.
And if you’re a player with no 2021 dead money — such as Jordan Howard or Emmanuel Ogbah — you better live up to your contracts over the next five months.
Before a worldwide pandemic, the Dolphins were positioned to make another big free agent spending splash next spring, to add pricey players to augment the current core and Miami’s collection of nine 2021 draft picks, including two first-rounders and two second-rounders.
But the spending spree part of that blueprint appears less likely. It’s not out of the question and could still be achieved with lots of heavy lifting, but it’s less likely than it was six months ago.
The NFL has announced that the cap will be at least $175 million next season, potentially more if health conditions shockingly allow for full stadiums at some point this fall.
But if it’s $175 million, that would be far less than the $215 million to $230 million projected before COVID-19 changed everything.
And that means the Dolphins will need to be judicious with their money next spring.
Here’s where things stand: The Dolphins currently have $25 million in 2020 cap space, per the NFL players association website. About $3 million will be needed for a 16-man practice squad. If the Dolphins get lucky with COVID-19 and injuries and don’t need to use any of their remaining cap space this season, then they can carry over that $22 million to use next spring.
Problem is, Miami stands less than $7 million below the 2021 cap if it comes in at $175 million. According to my numbers and those of spotrac.com, the Dolphins have $168.5 million in 2021 cap commitments to their top 51 players under contract for 2021. Only the top 51 count against the cap.
So if Miami can carry over more than $22 million (and it will probably end up less than that), and combine it with the $7 million in current 2021 space if the 2021 cap is $175 million, that would leave the Dolphins with about $29 million in cap room next spring.
Overthecap.com’s reliable Jason Fitzgerald puts the 2021 Dolphins cap space number in that ballpark, at $31 million including carryover space, and the only difference between his number and mine is that I deducted $2 million to $3 million for a 2020 practice squad, so our numbers are essentially the same. But he also warns that every team’s carryover space likely will drop by $7 million or so.
And while $29 million to $31 million in 2021 space would put Miami in better position than a lot of other teams (tied for ninth-most cap space, per Fitzgerald), it’s not a ton, considering that the cost of signing a 2021 draft class and a 2021 practice squad will eat up a chunk of that, leaving Miami with perhaps $16 million.
Most of that space would disappear if Miami simply re-signs Godchaux and McMillan and signs Karras or another center.
But it won’t be as simple as that. Even if this season goes splendidly, it’s impossible to conceive of the Dolphins not wanting to add a handful of new free agents next spring. And those players will consume cap space.
So how does Miami create that space? By restructuring some players or jettisoning others who don’t play up to expectations this season and have contracts without much dead money.
Miami could save $9.3 million against the 2021 cap next spring by releasing Xavien Howard and $5.7 million by cutting Bobby McCain.
Also, the 2021 cap hits of Ogbah ($7.5 million) and Jordan Howard ($5 million) and Clayton Fejedelem ($2.5 million) could be completely erased by simply cutting them next offseason. To be clear, cutting Xavien Howard would only be worth considering if he’s injured much of this season or plays poorly. Otherwise, you keep him in 2021.
Miami also could work to reduce the 2021 cap numbers of some among Byron Jones ($16.1 million), Kyle Van Noy ($13.9 million), Xavien Howard ($13.5 million), DeVante Parker ($11 million), Ereck Flowers ($10 million), Shaq Lawson ($9.3 million), Ogbah ($7.5 million) and McCain ($7.1 million).
Moving on from Jakeem Grant after this season would save $2.9 million, which isn’t worth it if he plays well this season. Cutting Allen Hurns would erase just $700,000 of his $2.9 million 2021 cap hit. Cutting Wilson would erase $2.9 million of his $5.2 million hit. Remember, the 2020 contracts for Hurns and Wilson — the two Dolphins who opted out of playing this season — have become their 2021 contracts.
So there are ways to make it work as Miami enters Year 3 of the rebuild, a year when there shouldn’t be excuses. But it’s going to be far more challenging than anyone could have expected. And Godchaux and McMillan will really need to stand out to earn sizable new contacts.
THIS AND THAT
▪ Davon Godchaux confirmed he was the Dolphins player who organized offseason workouts.
“It was kind of tough because you’ve got a lot of guys wanting to have their free time to themselves,” he said. “A lot of guys got wives. A lot of guys got kids, so we had to get a group message started specifically with the defensive line and get those guys, ‘Hey, you’re going to be here at this time.’
“I, of course, want to get my guys rolling and get my guys a head start on things like having rookies coming in and trying to get ahead, trying to get the playbook and things like that. So when I had the opportunity to do that, I took advantage of it.”
▪ Godchaux said when he tested positive for COVID-19, he knew it was wrong because antibody tests revealed he had the virus in June.
“I knew it was a false positive,” he said of the positive COVID test that landed him on the COVID-19 list for two days last week. “I didn’t think I had it because the antibodies already said that I had it back in June sometime. When I first saw it, I was like ‘This can’t be right. I got the second and third test and both were negative. I’m glad the NFL fixed it.’”
▪ The Dolphins’ signing of former Miami Central cornerback Deatrich Nichols on Thursday was the latest example of Miami looking far and wide for help. The Dolphins have been one of the NFL’s most aggressive teams in mining talent from the CFL; they found an eventual Pro Bowler there a decade ago with Cameron Wake and added linebacker Sam Eguavoen last spring.
They signed eight players from the shuttered Alliance of American Football last year, but none of them made the 53 man roster.
And in Nichols, they added the player who led the XFL in interceptions (with three) before the league stopped play due to COVID-19. Nichols, 5-10, appeared in two games for the Arizona Cardinals in 2018 and has experience at safety, boundary corner and nickle corner. He was released by the Saints earlier this month.
▪ Former UCF and Fort Lauderdale St. Thomas Aquinas cornerback Rashard Causey, who spent time with the Dolphins during a previous offseason, visited the Dolphins on Thursday. He hasn’t appeared in a regular-season NFL game.
Here’s my Wednesday piece on how upheaval in college football will affect the Miami Dolphins.
Here’s my Thursday piece with feedback from other NBA teams on where Tyler Herro would be selected if the 2019 NBA draft were done over, and the growth in his game.
Here’s my Thursday Heat notebook with Pacers and Heat players talking about their impending playoff series.
This story was originally published August 13, 2020 at 5:24 PM.
