Exploring the tough call that faces Heat’s Spoelstra with Nunn on eve of potential return
For the better part of five months this season, filling out a starting lineup was second nature to Erik Spoelstra, every bit as much as brushing his teeth.
But since the NBA restart, Spoelstra genuinely has embodied the spirit of perhaps his most-frequently-spewed Spoism: “I’m open to anything.”
His first surprise was discarding the NBA’s sixth-most successful lineup from a plus-minus standpoint when he replaced Meyers Leonard with Jae Crowder when the bubble games began. Leonard, subsequently, has played as many minutes in Disney as your mailman.
And with Kendrick Nunn sequestered in bubble-gum wrapping inside his Disney hotel, awaiting clearance from quarantine that could come as early as Wednesday afternoon, Spoelstra first opted for Tyler Herro as his replacement, then pivoted to Goran Dragic in Monday’s drubbing of the Pacers.
And so now, after starting Nunn in all 66 games he played this season, Spoelstra faces an interesting choice for postseason: Should Nunn, Dragic or Herro start alongside Jimmy Butler, Duncan Robinson, Bam Adebayo and Crowder?
It wouldn’t be surprising if Spoestra went back to Nunn, who will be available for Wednesday’s game against Oklahoma City if he gets another negative COVID test result before the 8 p.m. tipoff. But Dragic — who came off the bench for all but one game this season before Monday — certainly has made a case to start.
The Herro-as-a-starter experiment spanned all of 2½ hours, but it was fun while it lasted, with Herro erupting for 25 points, 10 assists and 8 rebounds in Saturday’s loss to Phoenix.
And it reminded me of a discussion I had with Herro in an AmericanAirlines Arena corridor in January, when I posed the question: Do you want to be an NBA starter long-term? There was no hesitation.
“Yes, definitely,” Herro said. “I’ve always been a starter. Right now, I’m comfortable with my role coming off the bench. Eventually, I want to be the starter for sure.”
Let’s be clear: Herro was simply responding to a question, not lobbying to be a starter. He’s fine in his role backing up his good buddy, Nunn, or Dragic, or whomever.
And despite Herro acing his starting assignment, at least offensively, he might be the least likely of Spoelstra’s options to start Game 1 of the playoffs.
Exploring the conundrum of whether to start Dragic, Nunn or Herro:
▪ The lineup with Dragic joining Butler, Bam, Crowder and Robinson has made a very strong case in limited minutes.That quintet has outscored teams by 25 points in 44 minutes this season (108 to 83) and was exceptional Monday, limiting the Pacers to 29.2 percent shooting during their 14 minutes together while outscoring Indiana by 17.
That starting group gives Miami three skilled ball-handlers (Butler, Bam, Dragic), all of whom were NBA All-Stars in the past 29 months; the NBA’s best three-point shooter this season (Robinson); and one of the NBA’s better glue guys, Crowder, who’s shooting a ridiculous 21 for 35 (60 percent) on threes in the bubble.
And two other factors that would support sticking with Dragic: 1. That quintet is shooting 46 percent on threes and has achieved strong chemistry offensively. 2. Dragic owns the Heat’s best plus/minus since the restart; Miami has outscored teams by 50 points with Dragic on the floor (ninth best in the league in the bubble), and starting him is a way to maximize his minutes.
▪ The lineup with Nunn and the four other starters (Bam, Butler, Robinson, Crowder) has been decent, but far less productive than the one with Dragic in the starting five. The quintet with Nunn has outscored teams, 109-107, in 48 minutes and is shooting 38 percent on threes.
When Nunn left the NBA bubble briefly last week, he was slumping, having shot 7 for 30 overall and 4 for 18 on threes in his three previous games, with five turnovers and four assists. His minutes also had dropped somewhat.
What’s more, Miami has been outscored by 25 points with Nunn on the floor since the NBA restart, which is worst on the team.
But here’s one argument to stick with Nunn as a starter: For much of the year, it worked. And Dragic and Herro have played well together off the bench; they’re a plus-23 as a pairing.
Sticking with Nunn as a starter also would eliminate the need to play those two rookies together off the bench during pressure-filled playoff games; Nunn and Herro are a plus-4 together this season.
Remember, Dragic has great value coming off the bench as a stabilizing presence when the Heat’s offense is struggling.
In fact, Dragic is one big reason the Heat’s bench has been among the most potent in the league, and removing Dragic from that group weakens that group. The lineups with Dragic, Andre Iguodala, Kelly Olynyk and Herro have been some of Miami’s best from a plus/minus standpoint.
▪ Starting Herro, which makes the most sense long-term, might not make the most sense to Spoelstra now.
That troika of Butler, Adebayo, Crowder, Robinson and Herro has played only five minutes together all season. The minutes have been good, with Miami outscoring the opponent 14-5. But it’s not much of a body of work.
And here’s one reason not to start Herro for now: That would mean playing Dragic and Nunn together off the bench, and that Dragic/Nunn duo is a minus-29 together.
As the NBA cliche goes, who starts isn’t as important as who finishes. Dragic is more likely to be on the court at the end of games than Nunn this postseason. Whether that’s the case to start games is suddenly an issue that warrants Spoelstra’s consideration.
Miami Herald sportswriter Anthony Chiang contributed to this report.
This story was originally published August 11, 2020 at 1:54 PM.
