What history shows Dolphins could get with slight trade down. And potential options
Having the third-overall pick in a draft with three highly-regarded quarterbacks gives the Dolphins delicious options.
Either keep the pick and add an elite offensive talent (receivers DeVonta Smith or Ja’Marr Chase or left tackle Penei Sewell) or trade down to acquire even more assets.
So what could Miami realistically snag in such a trade-down? We’ll get to that in a minute.
First, here’s one dynamic that could potentially help the Dolphins in the draft: Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank this week wouldn’t rule out making a change at quarterback, depending on what the team’s new coach wants to do. Matt Ryan, a four-time Pro Bowler, will turn 36 in May.
“Matt’s been a franchise leader for us,” Blank said. “A great quarterback. One of the leading quarterbacks in the last 13 years in the NFL. So I hope he’s going to be part of our plans going forward. But that will be a decision that I won’t make.”
If there’s any question about the Falcons possibly taking a quarterback at No. 4, that could be the impetus for a QB-needy team to try to jump the Falcons and attempt to obtain Miami’s pick at No. 3.
At least one of the top quarterbacks (Ohio State’s Justin Fields or BYU’s Zach Wilson) will be on the board at No. 3. Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence almost assuredly will go first to Jacksonville.
So what could Miami get in a slight-trade down?
Let’s hypothetically say Philadelphia — which picks sixth — fell in love with Wilson or Fields (whichever is there at 3), decided he’s better than Jalen Hurts and disappointing Carson Wentz, and asked Miami about the third pick.
If that happens, there’s a real-life template already established for what the Dolphins should receive in return.
In 2018, the Jets picked sixth and craved quarterback Sam Darnold but knew he likely wouldn’t drop to sixth.
So they called the Colts and acquired that third overall pick for a bundle: the Jets’ first-round selection (6th), two second-round picks (37th and 49th), and a second-round selection in 2019.
That would be the exact scenario — jumping from sixth to third — that would be in play in this hypothetical.
But the Eagles have only one pick in the first, second and third rounds, none in the fourth and two in the fifth. So a trade with Miami couldn’t involve that exact compensation from the Darnold deal.
What if the Bengals — picking fifth — coveted Oregon left tackle Sewell and approached the Dolphins about the third pick?
Keep in mind that in 2012, Minnesota traded the third pick to Cleveland for their first (4th), a fourth (118th), a fifth (139th), and a seventh-rounder (211th) that year. But that was jumping from fourth to third. Going fifth to third should command a second-round pick instead of a fourth for the Dolphins.
And in 2017, San Francisco traded the second overall pick to Chicago in exchange for Chicago’s first-, third-, and fourth-round selections (3rd, 67th, and 111th) as well as a third-round selection in 2018. So in that deal, the Bears gave up three mid-round picks to move up one spot for Mitch Trubisky.
What could the Dolphins get if the Carolina Panthers prefer Wilson to Teddy Bridegwater and want to move from 8 to 3?
As perspective, Pro Football Focus projected that if Carolina jumped four spots from 8 to 4, the Panthers could give the Falcons their picks at 8, 39 and 110, plus a 2022 third-rounder in exchange for the fourth and 214th overall picks.
And PFF projected that if New England — which needs a quarterback — jumped from 15 to 4, the Patriots could give the Falcons picks 15, 46, 77 and 97 for picks 4 and 178.
The Dolphins, of course, would be in position to get somewhat more than Atlanta in those hypothetical Carolina/New England scenarios by virtue of picking one spot ahead of the Falcons.
And one more scenario: What if Denver’s yet-to-be-hired new general manager decides he prefers Wilson or Fields to Broncos quarterback Drew Lock and wants to move up from 9 to 3?
Consider that in 2014, Cleveland traded the fourth pick to Buffalo in exchange for the Bills’ 2014 first round selection (9th) and their first and fourth round selections in 2015 (19th and 115th).
So that big a jump (9 to 3) presumably would net the Dolphins a 2022 first-rounder. But it likely would eliminate the chances of Miami landing Alabama receiver DeVonta Smith or LSU receiver Ja’Marr Chase.
ESPN’s mock drafts have Smith off the board at 3 and Chase at 7. Notably, ESPN’s McShay has not only Smith, Lawrence, Wilson and Sewell going ahead of Chase, but also has Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons and Northwestern guard/tackle/center Rashawn Slater off the board in the top six, too.
What’s more, McShay has Fields falling 15th to New England, though McShay acknowledged on television later in the day that Fields very likely will go much higher than that.
If Miami traded down to Denver’s range at 9, options in that area would include Alabama receiver Jaylan Waddle (might be a bit high for him), Miami Hurricanes defensive end Greg Rousseau, UF tight end Kyle Pitts (there would be overlap with Mike Gesicki) and Notre Dame inside linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah.
It’s difficult to envision Miami using another first-rounder on a cornerback (Alabama’s Patrick Surtain or Virginia Tech’s Caleb Farley) in such a scenario. Those two players are squarely in the 6 to 12 range.
THIS AND THAT
▪ Though every mock draft I’ve seen has Sewell as the first offensive lineman off the board, NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah said on the Rich Eisen Show that Sewell isn’t even his top left tackle in the draft. He said he prefers Northwestern’s Slater. And McShay has him going sixth in the draft — in part because of his ability to play tackle, guard or center.
▪ Even after Miami invested three high draft picks and $33 million in 2020 free agency on the offensive line, the Dolphins still came up short in that area in 2020, according to metrics site Pro Football Focus.
PFF rated Miami’s offensive line 29th best in the league this season. Here’s what PFF said:
“Few teams invested more in improving the offensive line than the Dolphins did entering the 2020 season. They spent draft picks on Austin Jackson in the first round, Robert Hunt in the second round and Solomon Kindley in the fourth round — all of whom played at least 700 offensive snaps this season.
“Additionally, Miami brought in players such as Ereck Flowers and Ted Karras in free agency in an attempt to shore up the interior. To be fair, the Dolphins were improved along the offensive line this season, but they set the bar so low in 2019 that this was still one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.
“It’s to be expected that an offensive line running out three rookies — particularly ones who were considered projects like Jackson was — would take their lumps early on, and the Dolphins have. Hunt did provide some optimism late in the year at right tackle, though, as his 76.4 PFF grade from Week 12 through the end of the season ranked fifth out of 37 qualifying right tackles.”
▪ Quick stuff: Xavien Howard’s 10 interceptions were more than the total of four NFL teams … DeVante Parker’s 21 contested catches tied Chicago’s Allen Robinson for most in the league ... Though it’s unlikely Houston would make unhappy quarterback Deshaun Watson available in trade talks, ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky said Miami would particularly make sense as a destination, in part because of Miami’s wealth of draft capital.
This story was originally published January 8, 2021 at 2:10 PM.
