Veteran scout and eight TV analysts assess Miami Heat-Milwaukee Bucks second-round series
Feedback on the Miami Heat-Milwaukee Bucks second-round playoff series that begins on Monday:
▪ First up is ESPN’s Kendrick Perkins, the former NBA center and the Heat’s biggest advocate on network television.
If “you think you’re going to mess with Jae Crowder and Jimmy Butler and Andre Iguodala and Bam Adebayo and [a team] well coached by Erik Spoelstra, you’re crazy,” Perkins said.
“They [the Bucks] don’t want to see Miami in the second round. The Magic was getting wide-open looks [in their first-round series]; the [Magic] just weren’t hitting shots.”
Perkins then asked of the Bucks: Do you think “they can beat the Miami Heat in the second round? Absolutely not, not the Heat team I’m watching [against Indiana]. Milwaukee doesn’t want that smoke at all.”
▪ TNT’s Stan Van Gundy, the former Heat coach, who calls Game 1 on Monday with Spero Dedes (6:30 p.m.):
“The Heat has some things that make them a very tough matchup for Milwaukee. Miami does two things exceedingly well defensively: They get back very, very well; they’re among the league leaders in limiting fast break points, which the Bucks rely on. And they limit paint points, which the Bucks rely on.
“On the other end of the floor, the Bucks have the best defense in the league for a second straight year. But there’s one thing they do: They give up three-point shots, a lot of them, the most in the league. And the Heat are the No. 2 three-point shooting team in the league, so they are going to have a way to score. That could be a very, very competitive series. I think it will be a great series.”
▪ Here’s the feedback of an Eastern Conference scout, offered on condition of anonymity because he’s not authorized by his team to speak publicly:
“It’s going to be a close series; I would not be shocked if Miami won. Milwaukee’s dominance has evaporated. They’ve played poorly much of the seeding games and I don’t see them as a dominant team. They can throw a lot of guys at Giannis [Antetokounmpo] -- Jae Crowder, Butler, Derrick Jones, even Bam at times, though you don’t want him getting into foul trouble.
“Milwaukee has got a bunch of older guys - George Hill, Kyle Korver, Marvin Williams, Wes Matthews. The Heat is much livelier and they’re playing at a high level. They move the ball, they’re in shape, their chemistry is very good. I think Milwaukee is a little overrated. [Bucks coach Mike] Budenholzer hasn’t been great in the playoffs.
“And where are the bad matchups for Miami [other than Giannis]? Giannis is going to be a bad matchup for every team in the league.”
The scout said the Heat has the better backcourt (Goran Dragic, Butler over Eric Bledsoe and Matthews), the better center (Adebayo over Brook Lopez) and the slightly better bench (Tyler Herro, Kelly Olynyk, Andre Iguodala, Jones, Kendrick Nunn over Hill, Korver, Robin Lopez, Williams, Pat Connaughton, Donte DiVincenzo).
He said one concern for Miami, beyond obviously Antetokounmpo, “is Duncan Robinson on Khris Middleton. That’s a tough matchup for Miami. You could have Bam on Giannis, and Crowder on Middleton, but you worry about foul trouble with Bam if you put him on Giannis too much.”
▪ TNT’s Chris Webber: “Miami is my dark horse in the East. They can mess the party up for a lot of different teams.
“If there’s a recipe for trying to stop Giannis, it starts with [the Heat] building a wall. It starts with everybody getting back on defense…. No player has scored as much in the paint since Shaquille O’Neal as Giannis.
“He gets the rebound, pushes the ball in transition, has really good shooters spread around the court mixed with a couple of guys who can penetrate, especially Eric Bledsoe. So Miami is going to have to build a wall. Secondly, they are going to have guys [defending on] the three-point line. They’re a defensive team and I think they can do that.”
But, Webber said, “more importantly, how can [the Heat] get buckets consistently? We know they can score. But you need guys who can get buckets in flurries that teams fear that if you miss seven in a row, they guard you the same way so you can help your teammates. Guys that garner the same respect no matter how much you’ve been scoring during the game.
“It’s going to be how to find a way to score against one of the best defensive teams -- and oh by the way -- my Defensive Player of the Year in Giannis.”
▪ TNT’s Greg Anthony said Miami has a roster “equipped” to compete with Milwaukee: “I’ve loved [Miami] all year; they have personnel defensively to create issues for [the Bucks]. The question would be: Would Miami be good enough offensively? Eric Bledsoe is as good a defensive point guard as there is in the league. Khris Middleton might be the most underrated player.
“The [Bucks] might have the best superstar arguably in the game but he’s probably the one with the biggest wart in terms of the fact he doesn’t shoot it as well [as other stars]. We’ve seen it in the past in postseason; he’s had some struggles because of that. As you go further in postseason, you will play against well coached, experienced teams who can game plan” and Anthony said the Heat and Erik Spoelstra would fit that bill.
▪ ESPN’s Matt Barnes: “I got Miami winning it. They match up well. They can definitely slow down the rest of that Bucks team [outside of Antetokounmpo]. The Heat have defense and shot-makers to be able to do that. They’ve got a lot of dogs at the guard position.”
▪ ESPN’s Paul Pierce, a frequent Heat critic, suggested Miami has a real shot: “The Heat has toughness. They have leadership. They have a guy they can go to down the stretch in Jimmy Butler. They have shooting, an interior presence. This is going to be an uphill battle for Milwaukee.”
▪ TNT’s Charles Barkley said: “I don’t think they [Miami] can beat Milwaukee.” But a minute later, he said: “If Dragic outplays Bledsoe, the Bucks are in trouble.”
▪ TNT’s Kenny Smith: “The advantage for Miami is they move the ball, so they make it hard for you to guard them. The ball doesn’t stick in anyone’s hands. Their advantage is ball movement and their ability to spread Milwaukee out. The disadvantage is I don’t know if they have anyone who can really slow [Antetokounmpo] down.”
This story was originally published August 30, 2020 at 7:17 PM.
