Things to keep in mind on Dolphins’ new running back duo. And details on new corner added
A six-pack of Miami Dolphins notes on a Monday:
▪ Five quick factoids about the Dolphins new running back tandem, to impress your friends at the party you won’t be having because of the pandemic:
1) One of the impressive things about Matt Breida is his 5.4 career average on first down. And on third down carries, he’s averaging 7.9 yards in his career (16 for 135).
2) It’s impressive to see Breida’s yards per carry over the past three years compared to every other NFL back. Over the past three years, only Nick Chubb (5.08) and Aaron Jones (5.02) have a higher per carry average than Breida’s 5.0.
It’s notable that former UM running back Duke Johnson and Breida have almost identical career rushing attempts (381 for Breida, 382 for Johnson). But Johnson has a 4.4 career average, compared with Breida’s 5.0.
3) With Jordan Howard, he averaged the same 4.4 yards on carries 1 to 10 (84 for 366) as he did on carries 11 for 20 (32 for 140) last season. That’s the good news.
But here’s one warning: Throughout his career, he’s been a better runner in the first half (4.5 per carry) than second half (4.0), including just 3.7 in the fourth quarter. The outlier is overtime, where his numbers are ridiculously good (12 carries for 143 yards or 11.9 per carry).
4) Breida, conversely, has been slightly better in the second half (5.2 per carry) than the first (4.9). So perhaps Miami should feature Breida more than Howard in the second half, though the main determinant should be who has the hot hand that day.
5) When his team needed 1 to 3 yards for a first down, Howard has converted 94 of 133 times in his career, which is 70.7 percent. Breida has converted 22 of 39 (56 percent); but he’s 6 for 7 on third or fourth and short.
▪ The Dolphins’ decision on Monday to claim former Auburn cornerback Javaris Davis off waivers from Kansas City wasn’t surprising, considering Miami tried to sign him after the draft, as we noted here.
Davis stands only 5-8 but the Dolphins love his speed (he ran a 4.39-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine despite a sore hamstring) and ball skills (eight interceptions over four seasons). The Dolphins now have Auburn’s top two cornerbacks from last season in Noah Igbinoghene and Davis, who likely will be given a chance to compete in the slot.
Davis, who was credited with 27 passes defended in his Auburn career, was considered a potential late-round pick but went undrafted and chose the Chiefs’ offer over one from Miami. But Kansas City released him this week because the Chiefs needed to get their roster down to 80.
“The similarities to former Auburn and current Patriots cornerback Jonathan Jones are striking,” NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein said. “Both played inside/outside and had great speed, ball skills and a quality football IQ. Like Jones before him, Davis is a little deficient in size and play strength, which shows up on occasion, but he’s a tough competitor who doesn’t give in easily at the catch point. He’s light on his feet and can bounce and weave in any direction the route takes him. Davis is a slot corner with quality man-cover skills and top-end speed with CB3 upside.”
Davis, a former four-star recruit out of Jacksonville, missed three games in 2017 and another in 2018 because of various nagging injuries.
Davis, who is a cousin of former Dolphins cornerback Vontae Davis, clearly made an impression on Dolphins coach Brian Flores and the team’s defensive staff when Flores gathered Auburn’s top defensive draft prospects in a room on campus on March 5, did an install of the Dolphins’ defense and then quizzed the players on what they learned.
▪ Was Kyle Van Noy’s four-year, $51 million deal a good value for the Dolphins? Here’s how Footballoutsiders.com assessed it:
“The Kyle Van Noy deal is difficult to judge, because he’s kind of a hybrid edge rusher/inside linebacker, and thus kind of falls into a no man’s land here. Judged as an edge rusher, his $30 million guaranteed is a very solid deal for Miami; he had 46 pass pressures last season, 12th-most in the league on a team where a lot of guys were playing a lot of roles.
“On the other hand, Van Noy could also be judged as an inside linebacker, where his solid skills against the run come into play. Fifteen million dollars guaranteed at signing for a top-20 edge rusher is a moderate bargain; $15 million guaranteed at signing for an inside linebacker is significantly more questionable.
“I’d subjectively split the difference, say that the Dolphins mildly overpaid for a Patriots defender that Bill Belichick was more than happy to let go, and still point out that I’d rather have Van Noy at $12.75 million a year than Robert Quinn at $14 million or Dante Fowler at $15 million.
▪ Here’s how Footballoutsiders assessed Byron Jones’ five-year, $82.5 million Dolphins deal:
“I get why the Dolphins would overpay for Byron Jones. He’s not quite a top-ten corner, but he had a 54% success rate and allowed just 6.1 yards per pass, eighth among those with at least 50 targets. There are questions on how he’d handle covering No. 1 receivers, but those are questions that you get a chance to answer when you have numbers like that.”
▪ As we noted in my profile of him, there’s a lot to like and admire about Texas safety Brandon Jones, who was drafted by the Dolphins 70th overall.
My concern is Jones’ pass-coverage metrics, and we’ll know in a couple years if Miami might have been better off taking front-seven defenders Zach Baun (Wisconsin) or Jabari Zuniga or Jonathan Greenard (UF) or running back/receiver Lynn Bowden Jr. (Kentucky) or Zach Moss (Utah, Hallandale High).
Jones had 371 snaps in the slot last season. On those slot snaps, he was targeted 46 times and allowed 34 completions for 330 yards, six touchdowns. That’s a 133.2 passer rating against.
But Texas coach Tom Herman believes he will be a good NFL safety.
▪ Though a lot of evaluators like the upside of offensive linemen selected by Miami high in the draft, Pro Football Focus wasn’t as high on new Dolphins linemen Austin Jackson (selected 18th) and Robert Hunt (39th) as some others.
PFF said “one of the concerns we had with Hunt — he slotted in at 89th on our board — was his out-of-control play style and the fact that he was barely tested in pass protection. And he did this all against relatively weak competition.”
And on Jackson, PFF said: “Jackson is going to be a project for Miami, both technically and physically. His play strength was not that of a first-round pick. He got exposed by NFL-caliber edge rushers in college — when he went up against Julian Okwara, A.J. Epenesa and Bradlee Anae, Jackson gave up a combined eight pressures in those games.”
Here’s my Monday piece, with Jordan McPherson, with details from one of the strangest days in Marlins history, with at least 11 players now having tested positive for COVID-19.
Here’s my Monday piece with several NBA network analysts explaining why they expect big things from the Heat the remainder of the season.
This story was originally published July 27, 2020 at 5:14 PM.
