Veteran general manager and former big-league coach assess Miami Marlins’ roster
As we enter this most unusual of baseball seasons, we elicited feedback on the Marlins from a longtime general manager now with MLB Network (Dan O’Dowd) and a former big-league coach and player now with ESPN (Eduardo Perez). How they assess the 2020 Marlins:
▪ Results are even more difficult than usual to predict this season, because of the variable of players potentially missing time with COVID-19 and the ability of bad teams to get hot during a portion of a 60-game schedule.
But a couple of national analysts see some reasons for encouragement about the Marlins, even though they’re likely a year or two from contending and even though they face perhaps the toughest schedule in baseball.
Perez has said that the Marlins will not finish last in the NL East. Why?
“There is something to be said about talent,” Perez, a former Marlins coach, said in a phone conversation. “I’m a fan of Corey Dickerson and Jonathan Villar. Every team I talk to said their [pitching] arms are good. Isan Diaz will be really good. With Jesus Aguilar, sometimes players who are humbled [as Aguilar was in dropping from 35 homers and 108 RBI in 2018 to 12 and 50 in 2019] can be most dangerous. They are buying low on [Aguilar] with unbelievably high potential. I love Sandy Alcantara’s arm, and Caleb Smith proved his stuff is for real…. But the Marlins need to show improvement this year.”
O’Dowd, the Colorado Rockies’ general manager from 1999 through 2014, assessed the Marlins this way in a phone conversation: “This is a really important year from a development standpoint. If you look at the core of their team, their starting pitching has to take the next step in their career. They have this wave of good-looking position players who are on the cusp - Jazz Chisholm, which was a fascinating trade [for pitcher Zac Gallen], Jesus Sanchez, JJ Bleday. This a great time for them to transition into a way more competitive team.”
O’Dowd said a potential eventual rotation of Sixto Sanchez, Edward Cabrera, Max Meyer, Sandy Alcantara and to-be-determined fifth starter (among a dozen quality prospects) could be “really, really good” and believes this could become a playoff contender in 2021 and several years beyond if most of the top prospects pan out.
“But then it comes down what is their new TV deal,” he said of a regional sports contract that expires after 2020 and pays Miami the least of any big-league team ($18 million to $20 million annually).
“They have got to get that TV deal up to $70 million, $80 million [annually]. And they have to figure out a way [post-pandemic] from a turnstile standpoint to attract a fan base to augment these young players with free agent signings and trades. They will have a tremendous amount of prospects to trade for the right players.”
Feedback on the roster:
PITCHING
▪ O’Dowd: “Caleb Smith started strong but didn’t hold up. He showed flashes but not consistency. He’s [28] and he’s at that point where either he shows value to them or someone else.
“Sandy Alcantara might have the highest ceiling of the current group, but he needs to be in the strike zone a little more consistently. Jose Urena is a four-plus pitch guy; the question is do they transition him to the bullpen. [They won’t for now.] And is Jordan Yamamoto a bullpen piece long-term?
“They have to transition into the next wave of pitching [Sanchez, Cabrera, Meyer, others]. And I really liked Braxton Garrett going into the [2016] draft, [before Tommy John surgery. Director of amateur scouting] DJ Svihlik and the guys have done a tremendous job building interesting pitching depth.”
▪ The Marlins are curious to see how Pablo Lopez responds now that he is further removed from shoulder problems that limited last season. He was 5-5 with a 4.23 ERA in 14 starts before the injury and 0-3, 7.01 in seven starts after returning last year.
“To me, the whole thing with Lopez is mental,” one current big-league scout said. “He needs to get mentally tougher. He’s almost too nice.” (Note: This was not Perez or O’Dowd quoted on this item.)
▪ On the bullpen, O’Dowd is comfortable with Brandon Kintzler and Yimi Garcia on the back end but “bullpen guys are mercurial. They’ve got a lot of depth in their bullpen and quality arms. Ryne Stanek is good. Adam Conley is extremely interesting [despite his uneven career]. Will they start to transition some of the starting arms into the bullpen?” with Jordan Holloway making that transition to start the season and Jorge Guzman another option for that role eventually, though the Marlins still see Guzman as a starter.
POSITION PLAYERS
▪ Perez said he knew second baseman/center fielder Villar was special when he was bench coach for the Houston Astros in 2013 “and I wore No. 3. One day, we go to the back field and a young Jonathan Villar was not going to make the team. He said, ‘When I make the team, can I have your number?’
I said, ‘You’re not making the team.’ And he said ‘we’ll see about that.’”
Villar started the year in the minors, was promoted to the big leagues July 21, stole home nine days later and finished strong.
“He showed his power, his speed,” Perez said. “He’s still very reckless on the bases but aggressive and always believed in himself. Has he matured? Big time. Does he have the tools to be great? He has the tools to be. He has big-time confidence. It will be interesting to see him in center.”
O’Dowd likes Villar’s move to center (at least part of the time) because “to me he wasn’t a great defender at either of the middle infield positions. He’s only 29, had a really good year last year; provides speed and power. His athleticism should show in center field; I’m fascinated to see how that will play.”
▪ O’Dowd said new outfielder Dickerson — added on a two-year, $17.5 million deal in free agency — “is fond to my heart. We developed him in Colorado. Corey can hit. When Corey got away from being a good hitter and focused more on power, I thought he got a little outside of himself. He’s an exceptional hitter; tremendous bat to ball skills. This is the first time he will have a chance to play every day and I think he can hit left-handed pitching. He will be a very valuable asset whether they keep him to the next stage because he’s only 31 or whether they trade him.”
Perez called Dickerson a “professional hitter, two strikes will choke up on the bat. Has zero ego. Blue-collar worker.”
▪ O’Dowd has one concern with catcher Jorge Alfaro:
“Alfaro is a fascinating tool package, and I saw improvement last year defensively,” O’Dowd said. “He has well above-average arm strength. It comes down to want to ,and I see a level of intensity and focus playing the game [that can vary]. His skills are really impressive, but other times he doesn’t seem that emotionally connected to the game. He’s been a little bit of an enigma to me.
“There’s power and arm strength and athleticism when he wants to play with that level of intensity. He has to demonstrate he’s their guy moving forward or they will look somewhere else,” though the farm system is largely bereft of front-line catching prospects, with Will Banfield sound defensively but struggling to hit for average in the minors.
Perez, on Alfaro, said: “The biggest thing with him is he is going to have a guy who’s been there and done that with [backup] Francisco Cervelli. That’s going to help. Cervelli is going to teach Alfaro how to lead, which is important. When you have a guy that can understand your language, nothing will be lost in translation, and Cervelli won’t be afraid to confront Alfaro. With Alfaro’s arm and ability, he will progress offensively. I like him back there.”
▪ O’Dowd on some others: First baseman Jesus Aguilar “was a legitimate right-handed power bat two years ago” and O’Dowd believes he could recapture that… “Garrett Cooper has got a great swing, but hasn’t been able to stay healthy. He will get plenty of at-bats — Aguilar will sit against some right-handers — and at 29, Cooper has to figure it out…. I like Brian Anderson a lot; his swing plays on the big-league level… Isan Diaz, I like his actions, but he needs a full year of playing at second; they need to play him and see what he has… With Lewis Brinson, he doesn’t need to hit for a high average to have value, but he needs to put the ball in play more on a consistent basis and needs to learn to figure out the strike zone.”
This story was originally published July 23, 2020 at 3:55 PM.
