How the Heat can accommodate the max extension Bam would welcome and still add a star
Bam Adebayo would welcome a max contract extension from the Miami Heat in the weeks ahead.
Whether the Heat ultimately gives him one is very much in question, considering an extension this offseason would cost the Heat between $13 million and $15 million in 2021 cap space.
The NBA deadline on an Adebayo extension is Dec. 21, the eve of the start of the regular season, and Pat Riley was non-committal when asked if the Heat would ask Adebayo to wait a year for his max deal.
Adebayo’s camp hasn’t revealed how strongly Adebayo feels about getting a max deal now.
Riley is aware that Adebayo’s 2021-22 cap hit would be $15.3 million if Miami waits until after this coming season to give him a new contract.
If Miami appeases Adebayo by giving him a new deal in the next five weeks, his 2021-22 cap hit will be at least $28 million.
If he doesn’t get the extension now, Adebayo would be a restricted free agent next summer, with Miami holding the right to match any outside offer.
But if Miami gives Adebayo the extension now to keep him content, there are still two potential avenues to add a max free agent in 2021, with Giannis Antetokounmpo at the top of Miami’s list if he doesn’t sign a super max extension with the Milwaukee Bucks in the next five weeks.
Here’s what would need to happen, keeping in mind that the 2021-22 salary cap definitely will fall between $112.4 million and $120 million (ESPN reports that the NBA expects it to be $112.4 million):
▪ Scenario 1 of extending Adebayo this offseason: Let’s say the 2021-22 cap is the lowest possible ($112.4 million), the figure projected by ESPN.
In that scenario, Adebayo’s first-year max would be $28.1 million and Antetokounmpo’s would be $33.7 million. Those two players — combined with Jimmy Butler’s $36 million salary, a $5.2 million waive-and-stretch hit for Ryan Anderson and cap holds for nine empty roster spots would leave no room for any other current Heat player.
Miami’s other cap commitments for 2021-22: Tyler Herro at $4 million, Kendrick Nunn (either $2.2 million or more likely $4.7 million cap hit), Duncan Robinson ($4.7 million cap hit), the Heat’s 2020 first-round pick if Miami doesn’t trade the pick (around $3 million) and KZ Okpala ($1.8 million guaranteed). Miami also has 2021-22 team options on Andre Iguodala ($15 million) and Chris Silva ($1.8 million).
That means Herro, Nunn, Robinson, Okpala and the player selected 20th overall would need to be traded only for draft picks to sign Antetokounmpo — using cap space — in that scenario if Adebayo gets his extension in the next five weeks. And the team obviously would need to decline the Iguodala and Silva options.
The Heat would need to fill out its final nine roster spots with its non taxpayer mid-level exception (nearly $10 million), a bi-annual exception (about $4.8 million) and players on veteran minimum deals and undrafted free agents.
Conversely, if the 2021-22 cap is $120 million (the highest possible), Adebayo’s first-year max would be $30 million and Antetokounmpo’s would be $36 million, giving Miami room for both of them at the max, Butler, and Herro, but nobody else from the current team. That would be the best case “scenario one” possibility if Miami relents and gives Adebayo the extension in the next five weeks.
Any of these scenarios — in which Adebayo is extended this summer — would preclude the Heat from having cap space to sign potential 2021 free agents with 10-plus years of service — such as Kawhi Leonard, Jrue Holiday and Paul George — because their max contracts would be higher.
And here’s the big caveat with that scenario:
If Adebayo is named MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or makes the first, second or third All-NBA teams in 2020-21, then he would be eligible for a higher salary under terms of the NBA’s designated player rule — $33.7 million in his first year if the cap is $112.4 million or $36 million if the cap is $120 million. That would foil Scenario 1.
▪ Scenario 2 of extending Adebayo this offseason: This is more plausible than Scenario 1.
This scenario involves acquiring Antetokounmpo or another 2021 free agent option — Victor Oladipo, Holiday, perhaps restricted free agents De’Aaron Fox or (long shot) Donovan Mitchell — through a sign-and-trade. (The same would apply in a trade for Washington’s Bradley Beal.)
So how could the Heat make salaries match up — to satisfy NBA cap rules — in that scenario?
Simple: First Miami should attach a 2021-22 team option to either Goran Dragic’s or Jae Crowder’s free agent deals that the Heat will try to strike quickly when free agency starts on Nov. 20.
Say Dragic signs a two-year, $40 million deal with a team option on the second year. (I expect Dragic to come to terms fairly quickly with Miami.)
Next summer, the Heat then could exercise the hypothetical Dragic or Crowder team options and Iguodala’s $15 million team option for 2021-2022 and send those two players, and perhaps Herro or Robinson (Miami assuredly would fight to keep Herro) to the Bucks in a hypothetical sign-and-trade for Antetokounmpo if he informs Milwaukee that he wants to sign with Miami. Or the Heat could craft a similar deal for another 2021 free agent.
There is one dicey issue with this scenario: Miami likely would need to make decisions on the Iguodala and hypothetical Dragic/Crowder options before 2021 free agency starts. So it would need intel on whether a top free agent wants to come here before free agency starts, and a sense of the other team’s willingness to facilitate a sign-and-trade. That’s not ideal but a risk Miami likely would need to take.
A Heat official conceded earlier this year that if a team wants a player and the feeling is mutual, there is a way to do it without cap space, as we saw with the capped-out Heat landing Butler.
So scenario two would be a more realistic strategy than scenario one if the Heat gives Adebayo an extension before Dec. 22.
What Miami must gauge is how unhappy Adebayo would be if he doesn’t get the extension, and whether it could hurt its chances with his friend, Antetokounmpo, if the Bucks star doesn’t sign a max extension with Milwaukee in the next few weeks. They share the same agent, Chicago-based Alex Saratsis.
I believe this will not be as easy as the Heat politely telling Adebayo “you need to wait a year to help us,” and that being the end of the discussion.
This is a somewhat delicate situation, and my sense from talking to people close to the situation is Adebayo would prefer getting his contract now, as any max-caliber player on a rookie deal understandably would. (A reminder here that Adebayo and his camp have not publicly addressed the issue.)
Remember, any series of health issues could ruin Adebayo’s chances of getting a max deal next summer if he waits; he can ask his friend Chris Bosh about the fragility of an NBA career.
And most players on rookies contracts of Adebayo’s caliber aren’t asked to wait for their extension. Boston doesn’t have this dilemma with Jayson Tatum, for example, because the Celtics won’t have cap space whether he waits a year or not.
But I also wouldn’t at all rule out Adebayo being agreeable to waiting a year if Riley and Erik Spoelstra can convince him to do so.
Whether the Heat relents — or can persuade Adebayo to cheerfully wait for his money — is the most important issue of the offseason.
Ultimately, the Heat can do what it wants but it also doesn’t want an unhappy Adebayo.
If Antetokounmpo signs a super-max entension with the Bucks in the next few weeks, my sense is Adebayo would feel even more strongly about getting an extension now and the chances are much better that the Heat would then relent.
Bottom line: An Adebayo max extension over the next month would create an obstacle to landing Antetokounmpo but not an impossible one by any means.
And as Riley said last offseason: “There’s no obstacles. Well, there are tons of them, but there’s none.”
This story was originally published November 17, 2020 at 4:34 PM.
