More debate rages on Tua’s health forecast. And draft analyst’s message on how to use Tua
A six-pack of Dolphins/Tua Tagovailoa notes on a Monday in which Miami’s new franchise quarterback agreed to a four-year, $30.3 million deal with a fifth-year team option:
▪ There are two ways of looking at Tua’s injury history: On one hand, you can say he sustained an alarming number of injuries (six or seven) during a two-year period: a broken index finger, sprained knee, quad injury, the two ankle injuries and last November’s dislocated hip and posterior wall fracture.
But this is also true: He played in 24 of Alabama’s 27 games since becoming a starter, which isn’t very many games missed. Thomas Byrd, Tua’s hip specialist, told ESPN’s Stepania Bell that his X rays were “pristine,” and Tua “looks as good as [I’ve] ever [seen] five months” after that type of injury.
And two respected sports medical experts made interesting points recently.
Former Los Angeles Chargers team physician David Chao — an orthopaedic surgeon, president of the San Diego Sports Medicine Foundation and prominent media presence through his popular @profootballdoc twitter account — made the case that Tua is not injury prone (more on that in a minute).
Marty Jaramillo, a veteran sports physical therapist, made a cogent point about Tua’s November hip injury in a chat with ESPN announcer Chris Fowler on Fowler’s Instagram account.
“It’s the right hip, not the left hip,” Jaramillo said. “Being a lefty, it’s less of a concern with throwing mechanics. Fracturing the posterior wall of his hip joint is an incredibly rare injury. It was like a motor vehicle accident.
“I saw his pro day video and he looked sharp. He was quick, lateral movement looked good, backpedaling looked good, drive off his right foot looked good.”
What’s the long-term prognosis?
“Long-term we’re talking about arthritis and breakdown of cartilage of the hip joint because even though it was massively repaired we’re talking about the socket that relies on it being smooth to minimize potential for arthritis,” Jaramillo said. “It’s impossible to make it perfectly smooth.
“That said, his strength, his youth, his elite athleticism leaves him with all the potential to have an elite and great career despite the potential of arthritis and breakdown of cartilage years away.”
As Tagovailoa assured me in January, Jaramillo said Tua “will be ready to go” for the start of the season if needed. Though it’s not out of the question, he’s not likely to start the opener, because there’s no on-field offseason program and because Ryan Fitzpatrick has five years of experience working with new Dolphins offensive coordinator Chan Gailey with the Bills and Jets.
But Jaramillo said: “From a medical standpoint, I would like to have him have eight months of rehab before contact. August comes, that will become the eighth- or ninth-month mark. He will be ready Day One.”
▪ As for Chao, he asserted on Twitter that the “injury-prone” tag for Tua is a bad rap.
“To me, ‘injury prone’ means an athlete is more likely to get hurt than another put in the exact same situation. I don’t believe that to be the case for Tua.
“Any player tackled with knee caught on ground with hip flexed and internally rotated with two players jumping on his back, as Tua was, can suffer a hip dislocation. This is a ‘car accident’ type force that no human can withstand.
“Yes, Tua has had three surgeries [hip and both ankles] in last two years, but the ankle surgeries were unusual/unique. Tua’s recovery from high ankle sprain surgery was quick with minimal missed time. Even Patrick Mahomes had two high ankle sprains this past season.
“Tua’s supposed ‘wrist fractures’ [reported by Mike Lombardi] did not happen. He did break his finger in the past, but that is an occupational hazard. Just this season alone, I am aware of at least five NFL QBs with significant digit injuries, including Drew Brees.
“Medically, Tua is not injury prone. Can he be called ‘prone to injury?’ That is a different question. Have talked about how mobile QBs who extend plays take on more risk. Learning to live to fight another day is something all QBs need to learn. See Jimmy Garoppolo, who tore his ACL trying to get extra yards and has learned. Tua will be no different.”
Trent Dilfer has worked with Tagovailoa on becoming more adept at avoiding hits. Alabama coach Nick Saban has encouraged him to throw the ball away instead of taking a big hit.
Chao also said Tagovailoa does not need a medical redshirt because his “hip will be fine by start of season. The bigger reason he won’t start Week 1 is there is no offseason program. Too hard for any rookie to learn NFL offense.”
▪ For those who believe Tagovailoa is fragile, Pro Football Focus’ Mike Renner makes that case, noting that Tagovailoa was hit or sacked 77 times in his college career and injured on three of those.
Conversely, Renner said Fitzpatrick “was hit or sacked on 132 dropbacks last season [second most in the NFL]. No way I’m starting Tua until that [offensive line] is fixed.”
To which Chao responded: “So a crude comparison is Tua with 77 career hits leading to two high ankle sprains and a dislocated hip vs. Patrick Mahomes with 81 hits in 2019 leading to two high ankle sprains and a dislocated kneecap.”
▪ NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah said it’s incumbent on the Dolphins to accentuate the RPO plays (run-pass option) that Tua ran beautifully at Alabama.
“Chan Gailey, let’s major on those RPOs,” Jeremiah said. “That’s what Tua does best, and that will make him most comfortable.”
Gailey has plenty of experience calling RPOs, well before some other coordinators started running those types of plays.
ESPN’s Tim Hasselbeck said: “When you watch him play at Alabama, there was so much conceptually what they do that you can see translates to the National Football League. You can see him doing those things well, and he did those things at an extremely high level.”
▪ One of the incredible things about Tagovailoa is that it’s so difficult to find a weakness in his accuracy.
According to Pro Football Focus, last season his passer rating ranked third in college football on throws 20-plus yards downfield, fourth on intermediate throws in the 10-to-19-yard range, and second on passes 9 yards and under. He’s the highest-rated passer in college football history.
Per PFF’s Ryan Smith, here were accurate throws on plays where the quarterback scrambled during the past two seasons, among FBS players with at least 15 attempts:
Tagovailoa was first with a 66.7 percent accuracy rate. Joe Burrow was third at 61.1 and Justin Herbert 104th at 25 percent. That ability to throw accurately on the move was one area where Tua was light years ahead of Herbert.
▪ Tagovailoa’s home jersey (aqua) was the No. 1-selling NFL jersey on nflshop.com this past week, and his white road jersey was No. 2., according to the NFL, just ahead of several of new Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady’s jerseys.
Among rookies, Bengals quarterback Burrow, Chargers quarterback Herbert and Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb rank as the next three top jersey sellers behind Tagovailoa.
NEWS NOTE
The Dolphins agreed to terms with second-round pick Raekwon Davis, the former Alabama defensive tackle, on a four-year, $5.7 million deal.
Here’s my Monday six-pack with Miami Hurricanes nuggets, including talk on a player who could appeal to the Dolphins in next year’s draft.
Here’s my weekend piece on ESPN overhauling its Monday Night Football booth and what comes next.
This story was originally published May 11, 2020 at 5:26 PM.
