A look ahead at how Dolphins’ rebuild should play out and the critical decision that helps
The Dolphins have done such good work augmenting their roster this offseason that former NFL coach Brian Billick included them among 2020 playoff contenders the other day, with the field expanding from 12 to 14 teams.
“They transformed this team in a division that for the first time in 15 years is truly in play,” Billick said on NFL Network. “They could be very much a playoff-caliber team.”
Even if that doesn’t happen (and playoffs in 2020 would be surprising), here’s the good news about this rebuild:
A lot of the heavy lifting appears over. The difficult part of any total rebuild is finding a franchise quarterback, starting offensive tackles and skilled man-to-man corners.
The Dolphins likely have done that with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and Byron Jones/Xavien Howard and (they’re hopeful), with talented rookie cornerback Noah Igbinoghene. They hope they have found longtime starting offensive tackles with Austin Jackson and Robert Hunt, and even though both might have growing pains as rookies, most evaluators believe they have a good chance to be very good players.
So unless the offensive tackles are busts, that means the Dolphins will enter the 2021 offseason needing upgrades at some positions that are far easier to address than quarterback, cornerback and offensive tackle.
That 2021 shopping list will include finding a top running back and receiver; more edge rushers to complement Shaq Lawson, Emmanuel Ogbah and Kyle Van Noy (all proven NFL players who are on multiyear contracts); a safety if Bobby McCain doesn’t excel this season; a long-term center (unless they commit multiyears to Ted Karras) and perhaps an inside linebacker if Jerome Baker doesn’t progress from pretty good to very good. And perhaps another defensive tackle, depending on what Miami does with Davon Godchaux, a 2021 free agent.
That’s still a lot of needs, but Miami should be able to mostly address most of those primarily with five picks in the first three rounds of next year’s draft, including two first-rounders.
And put it this way: I would much rather go into a draft needing those positions than the ones Miami addressed in last week’s draft.
The Dolphins’ 2020 strategy became clear as free agency and the draft unfolded: Find a quarterback, augment the lines and cornerback and worry next year about finding more long-term weapons for Tagovailoa.
The Dolphins actually were in position to take the exact opposite approach last week.
Instead of Jackson, they could have selected LSU’s Justin Jefferson, an exceptional slot receiver with 1,540 yards receiving and 18 touchdowns last season. Instead of Igbinoghene at 30 (after trading down from 26), Miami could have selected a dynamic running back in D’Andre Swift, Clyde Edwards-Helaire or J.K. Dobbins. Instead of Hunt at 39, the Dolphins could have drafted top safeties Grant Delpit or Antoine Winfield Jr.
And any of those alternative moves could have been defended.
But the upshot of Miami’s approach is that the positions bypassed shouldn’t be difficult to fill next offseason.
The 2021 draft is again expected to be loaded at receiver, a group potentially including LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase, Clemson’s Justyn Ross, Alabama’s Jaylen Waddle and Devonta Smith, Purdue’s Rondae Moore, Minnesota’s Rashod Bateman, Ohio State’s Chris Olave, Oklahoma State’s Tylan Wallace, Auburn’s Seth Williams and Louisville’s Tutu Atwell.
Pro Football Focus said next year’s crop of receivers “looks like yet another utterly stacked draft class. Everyone knows about Biletnikoff Award winner Ja’Marr Chase at this point, as he looked unstoppable on the field as a sophomore for LSU. DeVonta Smith is a scintillating deep threat for Alabama who returned to the Crimson Tide for his senior season, likely to add more mass to his 6-foot-1, 175-pound frame.
“There’s once again so much talent to go around. One of our favorite under-the-radar guys is San Jose State’s Tre Walker. He’s only 5-foot-11, 180 pounds, but put up 79 catches for 1,161 yards in only 10 games last season for the Spartans and can get open at all levels.”
ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. said Chase is “the AJ Green, Julio Jones potentially of this draft.” And Miami potentially would have the draft capital to move up to get him if it wants.
The Dolphins should be fine this season with a step-above-serviceable running back tandem of Jordan Howard and Matt Breida and then should be able to find a long-term No. 1 back next year from a gifted group including Clemson’s Travis Etienne (draft analyst Dane Brugler projects him as a potential late-first rounder), Oklahoma State’s Chubba Hubbard, Alabama’s Najee Harris, Ohio State’s Trey Sermon and Oklahoma’s Kennedy Brooks.
Etienne ran for 1,614 yards (on an absurd 7.8 per carry) with 37 catches for 432 yards as a receiver. Hubbard had a ridiculous 2,090-yard season last year — with 1,300 of those yards coming after contact, per PFF — while averaging 6.4 per carry. Harris ran for 1,224 yards, on 5.9 per carry, in America’s toughest conference.
And if Miami is looking for a third-down back, too, there’s UCLA’s Demetric Felton and Washington State’s Max Borghi, who PFF noted broke 28 tackles on 85 catches last season. So they should be able to find a top back.
The Dolphins will have edge rush possibilities with UM’s Greg Rousseau and Quincy Roche, Clemson’s Xavier Thomas, Kentucky’s Jamar Watson and Wake Forest’s Carlos Basham, among others.
“There looks to be a lot more depth in the 2021 edge class than what we saw this past year,” PFF said. “Rousseau will be the one generating the buzz with his freakishly long 6-foot-6, 251-pound frame, but his new teammate [Roche] may be the more productive one.”
The safety class will be decent, with TCU’s Trevon Moehrig and Ar’Darius Washington (PFF’s No. 1 and No. 2 graded safeties in 2019), plus Oregon’s Jevon Holland, Wisconsin’s Eric Burrell and USC’s Talanoa Hufanga. PFF notes that Holland “has that playmaking thing down pat already with nine picks in his first two seasons.”
Inside linebacker also should be deep with Penn State’s Micah Parsons (a potential top-five pick), Alabama’s Dylan Moses, Duke’s Chris Rumph, Oklahoma’s Nik Bonitto and Missouri’s Nick Bolton.
“Power, size, speed and length — Parsons looks like the total package,” PFF said. And Miami potentially could have the draft ammunition to get him.
The Dolphins, next year, will have their own and Houston’s picks in both the first and second rounds, their own in the third, fourth and fifth, and Pittsburgh’s and Seattle’s picks in the sixth round.
The Dolphins potentially would have had as much as $70 million in cap space if the 2021 cap had jumped significantly, which was expected before the coronavirus pandemic. But ESPN’s Adam Schefter said the cap could drop from its 2020 number, which is $198.2 million.
“If there are no fans in the stands this season that would equate essentially to about on average roughly $100 million less in revenue per team for each of the 32 NFL teams in the NFL,” Schefter said. “If we multiply that $100 million by the 32 we get $3.2 billion in lost revenue, and why is that a big deal? Because the salary cap is based off the total revenue that comes in...
“So if there is $3.2 billion in less revenue, which is a rough number... but well within the range that is expected and as other people pointed out there are other financial losses as well, we are looking, potentially, at the salary cap dropping in 2021 by $70 to $80 million.”
Schefter noted that the union and league could negotiate a smaller drop, which would seem likely.
But even if the cap is $170 million, the Dolphins would still be in a decent shape because they have only $140 million to $146 million in cap commitments for 2021 (Overthecap and Spotrac differ by $6 million) and could fill all or most of their remaining needs with draft capital.
Presuming quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick won’t be needed after this season, the Dolphins will have six significant free agents next offseason — Godchaux, Karras, linebacker Raekwon McMillan, receiver Albert Wilson, Breida and linebacker Vince Biegel — and Miami will need to decide which of those it even wants back. None would break the bank.
The Dolphins would save more than $15 million in 2021 space by moving on from Howard and McCain after the 2020 season, but that would not be advisable if both are healthy and productive this year.
So the Dolphins have put themselves in a pretty good position even if the pandemic results in a sizable cap drop.
The big caveat, of course, is that they must hit on most of their draft choices — especially Tagovailoa, Jackson and Hunt — and that’s a big if, because of durability questions with Tagovailoa and the uncertainty in projecting success of rookie linemen.
Also, a half dozen key needs remain, and it’s likely that not every one of those needs will be filled with long-term answers even by the start of the 2021 season, considering nobody hits on all their draft picks.
But there’s increasing evidence that the franchise’s reset was the right move. They had a plan, stuck to it, and if Tua and the young tackles are what the Dolphins think they are, the future looks bright.
This story was originally published April 29, 2020 at 4:41 PM.
