The looming issue that could affect Marlins dramatically for a decade. And player feedback
A six-pack of Miami Marlins notes on a Friday:
▪ The economy has taken a big hit amid the coronavirus epidemic, and sports is hardly immune. And the Marlins are in a particularly vulnerable position because they are in the midst of negotiating a new television deal that will have a major impact in determining their revenues for the next decade.
The Marlins’ local TV deal, the worst in baseball, pays them about $18 million a year and expires after this season.
According to an early version of the document that Marlins CEO Derek Jeter sent potential investors when he was trying to buy the team in 2017, he projected $51.6 million in local broadcast revenue (almost all from TV) in 2021 and $53.6 million in 2022.
It’s unclear if those projections have changed, and the Marlins declined to speculate on how the economic impact of coronavirus could affect their ongoing TV negotiations.
Fox Sports Florida general manager Steve Tello also declined to comment when asked directly if the economic downturn from the coronavirus pandemic would impact how much Sinclair (which now owns more than 20 of the Fox regionals, including Fox Sports Florida) will offer the Marlins in a new TV deal.
But this is a big deal, in this regard: If the Marlins make only $33 million a year in their new TV deal — compared with say, $50 million — that’s a lot less available for player payroll over a long-term period.
And the Marlins are at the mercy of what Sinclair is willing to pay, because there’s no other viable alternative to air the team’s games. Only teams with the revenue, popularity and cache of the Yankees are able to successfully launch their own networks.
Everyone who wants to see the Marlins succeed should hope their next TV deal isn’t hurt by the expected oncoming recession. But until the sides reach a deal, there will be justified concern.
▪ One veteran big-league scout who watched a handful of Marlins games this spring, told me: “No doubt they’re better. They’re a lot better athletically and making progress. But their bullpen would concern me.”
A second scout who has a strong relationship with some Marlins people and saw the Marlins this spring agreed with that assessment: “Brandon Kintzler will be all right as the closer, and [Don] Mattingly really likes Yimi Garcia. Beyond that, there’s not much” in the bullpen.
That scout’s other thoughts: “[Elite shortstop prospect] Jazz Chisholm has to cut down on strikeouts, but his athletic ability is impressive. Terrific fielder, good arm, [radiant] personality….
“Really impressed by [first base prospect] Lewin Diaz’s power. He holds his hands real low. People might try to pound him with stuff up high, but he took a pitch deep on a high fastball.”
▪ One scout who has evaluated the Marlins’ minor-league system said he’s convinced Victor Victor Mesa’s 18-year-old brother, Victor Jr., will be the better big-league player, even though the 23-year-old Victor Victor got the bigger contract and was more ballyhooed. Both are outfield prospects.
Victor Jr. hit .284, with one homer and 24 RBI in 47 games in rookie league for the Marlins last season.
“I could see him being an everyday outfielder on a good team,” the scout said of Victor Jr.’s big-league projection.
“Above average-hitter, and the power will develop. He has no fear. As a 17-year-old last year with a rookie league team, people seemed to rally around him. He’s got an aura about him. Not sure he has enough speed for a prototypical center fielder, but his ability to go after the ball may keep him there.”
▪ Right-handed prospect Jorge Guzman elicits a lot of debate in the scouting community.
The Marlins insist they see him as a starter long-term, though one scout said it makes sense to use him in the bullpen because of how hard he throws (100 mph) and because Miami has considerable starting pitching depth in the system but no sure-fire closer prospect. And keep in mind that most big-league relievers come up as starters in the minors.
“I think Guzman will end up in the bullpen, and he’s going to be very good there,” one scout said. “He’s going to be ready for the big leagues soon. Remember that Mariano Rivera got to the big leagues as a starter and didn’t have his cutter yet.”
Another evaluator said he likes Guzman as a reliever, but at this point, “he’s more of a thrower than a pitcher. His secondary pitch is so-so.”
Guzman told me last September he wants to be a starter.
▪ One smart thing the Marlins organization has done is hiring hitting instructors who worked with or played for Marlins executive Gary Denbo with the Yankees — from Marlins offensive coordinator and former Twins coach James Rowson to hitting coach Eric Duncan to minor-league instructors Jeff Livesey, Edwar Gonzalez and Ty Hawkins, among others.
Over the past two years, Denbo overhauled the way the Marlins teach hitting, and there’s wisdom to having instructors who generally teach hitting the same way, with obvious variations depending on the player. (You’re obviously going to teach someone with the skill set of a Juan Pierre differently than someone with the skill set of a Giancarlo Stanton, in other words.)
To simplify the feedback I’ve received, the Marlins are teaching hitting in a smarter way.
▪ Though second baseman Isan Diaz hit only .103 (3 for 29) in the spring, the Marlins weren’t too worried because they thought he was swinging the bat well. But if he struggles to start the season (if there is a season), Jonathan Villar will need to make a quick move back to second base from center field.
This story was originally published May 1, 2020 at 1:39 PM.
