Heat’s trade opened up unexpected 2020 flexibility. Here’s what Miami can do this summer
The Heat’s ability on Thursday to dump James Johnson and Dion Waiters - and the final season of their contracts next year - has given Miami more flexibility than any other playoff team will have this summer.
And in five months, the Heat will have two or three choices:
▪ Keep most of its current group (including impending free agents Goran Dragic, Derrick Jones Jr., Meyers Leonard, Jae Crowder and - less likely - Solomon Hill if the Heat chooses) and supplement that group with another rotation player using its $9.7 million mid-level exception.
▪ Move on from those impending free agents (except Jones), and try to convince a top free agent to take a one-year big-money deal with Miami.
▪ There’s a third scenario in which Miami could keep Dragic and Jones (but none of its other free agents), and perhaps have $20 million left to spend on outside free agents - but have no mid-level exception. But that scenario is possible only if Kelly Olynyk opts out of the final year of his contract.
If Miami renounced the rights to Dragic, Leonard, Crowder, Jones and Hill - thus eliminating their Bird Rights - the Heat would have $27 million in cap space this summer if Olynyk exercises his $13.6 million player option or just over $40 million if he doesn’t.
But there’s no need to renounce Jones, because his cap hold is minimal and because his cap hit for next season will be only $1.7 million in 2020-21 because of his Bird Rights, no matter what the Heat pays him, though his full 2021-22 salary would count against Miami’s cap in the second year of a potential multiyear deal.
So under that second scenario, Miami could try to sign Lakers free agent Anthony Davis under the Olynyk opt-out scenario (Davis coming to Miami is obviously a major long shot).
Or, more realistically, Miami could try to persuade potential 2020 unrestricted free agents Demar DeRozan, Serge Ibaka or Danilo Gallinari to sign a one-year deal with the Heat, with Andre Drummond, Marcus Morris, Marc Gasol, Fred Van Vleet and Montrezl Harrell other potential targets in that scenario, and Joe Harris and Derrick Favors rounding out the list of the top potential unrestricted free agents.
DeRozan ($27.8 million), Davis ($25.4 million) and Drummond ($25.4 million) have players options and are positioned to opt out. Gordon Hayward ($32 million player option) isn’t expected to opt out.
(We’re not mentioned top restricted free agents Brandon Ingram and Bogan Bogdanovic because of the likelihood of offers being matched, and the unlikelihood of a one-year deal for either.)
Whether Olynyk opts out or not, the Heat could try to land DeRozan, Ibaka or Gallinari for a year while having enough to keep Jones (with his low cap hit) but certainly not enough to keep Dragic in the non-Olynyk opt out scenario and probably not enough even if Olynyk opts out in this scenario. And Miami’s chances of luring any of those is obviously better if Miami is operating with $40 million in space instead of $27 million.
The challenge, of course, would be getting any player to accept a lucrative one-year deal if big multiyear deals are available elsewhere. The Gallinari trade fell apart because he wanted at least two guaranteed seasons from Miami,and the Heat wanted a player option on the 2021-22 season.
Of that group of potential 2020 free agents, it’s difficult to envision Miami giving guaranteed multi-year deals to anyone except Davis, who is certainly likely to stay with the Lakers. That’s because the Heat wants to preserve max cap space in 2021 for a pursuit of potential Milwaukee free agent Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The Heat’s other option this summer? Keep the cap holds in place for Dragic, Jones, Leonard, Crowder and Hill - which would consume all of the Heat’s cap space unless they’re renounced or replaced by new deals - and give a lucrative one-year deal to Dragic, a multiyear deal to Jones and a one-year deal to Leonard and/or Crowder if Miami chooses, and then use the $9.7 million midlevel exception, while staying under the $139 million tax threshold.
The Heat can afford to give Jones something in the range of $7 million in year two of a multiyear deal (potentially more depending on where the salary cap lands) and still have space for Antetokounmpo or Victor Oladipo in 2021, provided the Heat declines the 2021-22 team option on Andre Iguodola.
The $9.7 million mid-level this summer - available if Miami keeps in place cap holds on its free agents and doesn’t operate as a room team - likely would land a quality player, because only five teams have significant cap space this summer. Per earlybirdrights.com, the Heat’s $27 million in space (with Olynyk opting in) is fourth most behind the Hawks ($49.2 million), Knicks ($38.7 million) and Pistons ($34.9 million), with Charlotte fifth at $22.8 million.
Among potential unrestricted free agent wing players who could be in play with part or all of that $9.7 million: Kentavious Caldwell Pope, Justin Holiday, Jordan Clarkson, Austin Rivers, Avery Bradley, DJ Augustin, Bryn Forbes, Marco Bellinelli, Reggie Jackson, E’Twaun Moore and Wes Matthews. Young players in that price range, such as Forbes, assuredly will be looking for multiyear deals and the Heat is in no position to do that.
Among potential unrestricted power rotation players who could be in play with part or all of that $9.7 million: Tristan Thompson, Davis Bertans (could command more), Enes Kanter, Paul Millsap, Aron Baynes, JaVale McGee, Nerlens Noel, Markieff Morris, Ian Mahinmi, Davis Bertans and Mason Plumlee. DeMarcus Cousins, pursued by the Heat last summer before opting for the Lakers, might need to settle for a minimum deal after missing the season with another major injury.
The Heat could opt for one of those players instead of Leonard, potentially - or sign one of those players and Leonard, if Olynyk opts out.
And all of these players also would be available for the Heat to pursue if Miami simply decides to use cap space instead of an exception this summer, though that would involve renouncing and moving on from some of their free agents.
Incidentally, guard Tim Hardaway Jr. could opt out of an $18.9 million player option with Dallas but should command more than the full mid-level if he’s going to do so.
Here are all the details on Thursday’s trade and the fallout.
This story was originally published February 6, 2020 at 10:03 PM.
