The buzz on Marlins starting pitchers — both long-term and short-term options
Here’s the most important issue that should become much clearer by the end of this Marlins season and then fully clear in 18 months: Do they have the type of dominant starting pitching they believe they have, which is a necessity to have any chance to compete long-term with the high-talent, high-payroll teams that reside in National League East?
We could get answers this season with regard to Sixto Sanchez (the top pitching prospect in the system), Nick Neidert and Jorge Guzman.
Answers should come by 2021, if not sooner, on Edward Cabrera, Jordan Holloway, Braxton Garrett and Trevor Rogers.
And we’ll know more this year whether any of the experienced, incumbent starters — Sandy Alcantara, Caleb Smith, Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez, Jordan Yamomoto — can be long-term above-average starters, with Alcantara clearly on track to be.
Marlins staffers aren’t the only ones who talk about the potential of these young starters. So do the players. “We can be a very dangerous rotation,” Guzman said. “We’re young, healthy, have very good potential and we focus on learning how to pitch, not throwing hard.”
Jose Urena could go back in the rotation if needed, but the Marlins say they want to look at him in the bullpen again. With pitchers and catchers reporting next Wednesday, a look at the starters who will be in training camp and their chances of making the 2020 rotation:
▪ Right-hander Alcantara (will be in opening-day rotation barring injury/6-14, 3.88 ERA for Marlins last season): There were flashes of dominance last year, en route to striking out 151 in 197 innings and holding opponents to a .241 average. But there were still too many walks (81) and difficulty when the batters put the first ball in play (.371 average in that situation) and with runners in scoring position and two outs (.280). But the Marlins believe the stuff is good enough to be a No. 1 starter or high-impact No. 2. I spoke with two scouts who agree.
▪ Left-hander Caleb Smith (very likely in opening day rotation; 10-11, 4.52): Dominant at times in the first half of the season (4-4 in 13 starts, 3.50 ERA, .201 average against) but far less effective in the second half (6-7, 5.52, 13 starts, .242 average against). The Marlins bypassed trade opportunities, hopeful he can regain his pre-All Star break form.
▪ Right-hander Pablo Lopez (good chance to be in opening day rotation; 5-8, 5.09): He wasn’t close to the same pitcher after returning from a shoulder injury in August, leaving legitimate questions entering spring. Before the injury, he was 5-5, 4.23 ERA in 14 starts. When he returned, he was 0-3, 7.01 in seven starts. He told me his breaking ball was much sharper before his injury and admitted he was not “mentally” the same pitcher as before. He needs to trust the shoulder and be aggressive to have any chance of long-term success.
▪ Right-hander Jordan Yamamoto (decent chance to be in opening day rotation; 4-5, 4.46): As with Smith and Lopez, results were very good early, not so good late. He allowed four earned runs in his first 29 innings as a big-leaguer last season but 35 over his last 49. But batters hit only .191 against him and he struck out 10 and one-hit the Mets over six innings in his final start. Question is whether stuff is good enough to be more than a No. 5; scouts question that.
▪ Right-hander Elieser Hernandez (decent chance to be in opening day rotation, 3-5, 5.03 in 21 games, including 15 starts): Held hitters to a .242 average and struck out 85 in 82 innings. Marlins like the upside and Lopez, Yamomoto and Hernandez will have every chance to be the third through fifth starters if they pitch well in camp and if Urena settles in the bullpen.
▪ Right-hander Robert Dugger (less than 40 percent chance of being in opening day rotation; 0-4, 5.77 in seven starts): More of a backup rotation option but his three late-season quality starts earn him a look.
THE FUTURE ARMS IN CAMP
There will be at least eight high-end starting pitching prospects in big-league camp with no big-league experience.
When I asked president/baseball operations Michael Hill if the closest of those young arms (Sanchez and Neidert) would need to be much better than the aforementioned more experienced pitchers to have any chance to win a spot in the opening day rotation, he was non-committal but said they “are getting themselves into a position where they are definitely in the major-league conversation… Even if they’re not ready,... they’re incredibly close to being ready.”
Rounding up those eight:
▪ Right-hander Sanchez (likely to be in rotation at some point in 2020 but likely not initially; 8-6, 2.76 ERA in Double A): MLB.com’s 22nd overall prospect was thoroughly dominant the final month at Double A Jacksonville, allowing three earned runs and 23 hits — with 35 strikeouts — in 40 innings. Sanchez, who has multiple above-average pitches, said he changed his mechanics - especially with his legs - to avoid the shoulder injuries that slowed him in the Phillies system. “I feel very close” to being in the majors, he said.
▪ Right-hander Neidert (on track to get a chance at some point in 2020; 3-5, 4.67 in 13 starts in three levels after missing most of year with knee injury but 1.50 ERA in Arizona Fall League): When’s he at his best, has excellent strikeout to walk ratio. Could be mid-to-back-end starter.
▪ Right-hander Cabrera (could debut this summer: 9-4, 2.23 between Double A and Single A): Some Marlins people believe he could be every bit as good as Sanchez, a legitimate No. 1 or No. 2. This was impressive: He allowed just 65 hits and struck out 116 in 96 ⅔ innings. Imposing at 6-6 and throws very hard. MLB rated him 85th among all prospects in its newest top 100.
▪ Right-hander Guzman (could debut this summer; 7-11, 3.50 at Double A): Guzman, who didn’t get a win in his first 25 starts in the Marlins system after coming over in the Giancarlo Stanton trade, raised eyebrows with a dominant second half, including six hits allowed and 35 strikeouts over his final 30 innings. “I was having lack of command at the beginning of the season but I started controlling my slider better,” he said. That makes his 100 mph fastball more effective.
▪ Right-hander Jordan Holloway (could debut in 2021; 4-11, 4.45 at Jupiter): Came back from Tommy John surgery and the Marlins say his stuff was a lot better than the stats indicate. Consistently threw 97 to 100 mph.
▪ Left-hander Garrett (could debut in 2021; 6-6, 3.34 at Jupiter): The Marlins 2016 first-round pick also came back from Tommy John and was throwing 90-93 by midseason. “My command and changeup need to get better,” he said. Garrett and Holloway, who had Tommy John five days apart, are making their minor league journeys together as roommates in Palm Beach Gardens.
▪ Left-hander Rogers (could debut late in 2020 or in 2021; 5-8 with a 2.53 ERA at Single A Jupiter, then 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in five starts at Double A Jacksonville): The Marlins’ 2017 first-rounder took a major step last year and struck out 150 in 136 innings. Rogers and Garrett aren’t yet required to be on the 40-man roster.
▪ Right-hander Humberto Mejia (could debut in 2021; 5-2, 2.09 at two levels of A ball): Opponent hits .176 off him in 18 games, and 14 starts. He’s on the 40-man roster and worth keeping an eye on.
NEWS NOTE
After conversations with other radio stations, the Marlins decided to keep their games on WINZ-940, with Dave Van Horne and Glenn Geffner again calling most games.
This story was originally published February 5, 2020 at 5:25 PM.
