The most important negotiation of Jeter ownership hangs in balance for Miami Marlins
A six-pack of Marlins notes on a Thursday:
▪ The most important number for the Marlins this year won’t be their final win total, but how much they will net annually in a TV deal that must be completed sometime in 2020, after years of negotiations under two different ownership groups for both parties.
The Marlins’ TV deal, which paid the team an MLB-low $18 million last season and $20 million this coming season, expires after this coming season, and the team and Sinclair (which now owns the Fox regionals, including Fox Sports Florida and Fox Sports Sun) are in ongoing, serious negotiations about a new contract, according to sources.
The issue remains the same one it has been for years: The two sides agreeing on what Marlins’ TV rights are worth.
Before Derek Jeter took over as CEO and part-owner, the Marlins’ former management presented to Jeter a Fox contract extension proposal that called for a rights fee beginning north of $50 million, with some up-front payments in 2019 and 2020, according to a league source.
Jeter told the Marlins not to take that deal and to allow the new ownership to negotiate its own contract, which was understandable. (Every new ownership group should be able to handle negotiations on a key revenue stream.)
What’s unclear now is whether Sinclair is offering that amount, let alone more. The Tampa Bay Rays TV deal, finalized in 2019, reportedly called for Fox to pay the Rays an average of $82 million per year, up from the nearly $35 million annually that Fox had been paying.
But Rays owner Stuart Sternberg said the average annual payment is “well, well, well under” the $82 million annual average over 15 years that was reported last spring by Sports Business Daily. Sternberg declined to reveal that annual rights fee, and the accurate number has never been disclosed.
In an early version of Jeter’s financial documents shared with potential investors when he was trying to buy the team, he projected annual local broadcast revenue (almost all from TV) to be $51.6 million in 2021 and $53.6 million in 2022. (If you missed it, here was my 2018 five-part series with my exclusive details from those documents.)
Whatever rights-fee spike the Marlins are able to extract from Sinclair/Fox will instantly boost revenue, and an additional $20 million or so in annual player payroll could be riding on the outcome of those negotiations.
The Marlins also continue to seek a stadium naming rights deal. The best offer that the Marlins — under previous owner Jeffrey Loria — ever got was $6 million annually, according to a source. But Loria bypassed that offer, intent on securing something more lucrative.
▪ While much of the feedback on Marlins prospects from scouts has been positive, one scout said he was troubled watching outfielder Victor Victor Mesa last season.
He said there was one game last season where he hit a ball off his foot, was on the field for 30 seconds, and his manager at Class A Jupiter, Todd Pratt, came out and told him to get up (which he did), creating the impression that Mesa was overdramatizing the injury.
“There’s nothing special about him,” the scout said. “His arm is average and erratic. He doesn’t hit the ball out of the stadium in games or in batting practice, from the days I saw him. He’s not a physical presence like [Yoenis] Cespedes or [Yasiel] Puig.”
Mesa, 23, hit .252 in 89 games in Jupiter and .178 in 27 games at Double A Jacksonville with a combined 29 RBI, no home runs and 18 steals in 20 attempts.
The Marlins believe his long layoff without playing baseball (nearly 22 months) contributed significantly to his early struggles, and he was decent in the Arizona Fall League, hitting .271.
Some believe his younger brother, 19-year-old outfielder Victor Jr., will end up being the better player; he hit .284 in rookie league last season.
▪ That scout said he was also disappointed in how left-hander Will Stewart — the third piece in the J.T. Realmuto trade — fell apart last season.
“He looked like a shell of himself,” the scout said. “They made a lot of changes with him, and he didn’t throw as well and had a big drop in velocity. I thought he could be a No. 3 starter at one point.”
The Marlins left him unprotected in the Rule 5 draft but nobody claimed him.
Stewart went 6-12, 5.43 in advanced Class A Jupiter for the Marlins in 2019 after going 8-1, 2.06 in a lower Single A level in the Phillies system in 2018. Even if he doesn’t pan out, at least the Marlins got catcher Jorge Alfaro and ace pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez in that deal; Realmuto would have left the Marlins after 2020 if he hasn’t been traded.
▪ On the flip side, the scout raved about right-handed pitching prospect Edward Cabrera and likes the veteran additions: “Their lineup should be a lot more competitive. Really like the Jonathan Villar and Corey Dickerson pickups. That’s going to take some of the pressure off Brian Anderson.”
▪ One reason it was smart for the Marlins to sign outfielder Dickerson: Yasiel Puig, whom they also pursued, wants $15 million a year, per South Florida-based reporter/host Craig Mish. Dickerson, at two years and $19.5 million, is better value.
Fangraphs compared the advanced metrics of Dickerson, Nicholas Castallanos, Puig and Marcell Ozuna, noting “all four of these outfielders debuted in 2013 — Castellanos had a tiny 18-plate appearance cup of coffee — which makes comparing their career totals rather convenient.
“Despite being the oldest in this group, Dickerson’s career numbers are on par or better than the three other big-name free agent outfielders. His recent injuries are a potential concern and he’s on the wrong side of 30, but he looks like a downright steal for Miami.
“With a consistently solid bat and above-average, if inconsistent, defensive skills, it’s remarkable that the Marlins were able to add Dickerson on such an affordable contract. If we compare him to some of the other free agent outfielders available on the market, his career numbers don’t really fall short.”
▪ The bad news on new reliever Stephen Tarpley, the latest Yankee acquired: He allowed 34 hits and 19 runs in 34 ⅔ innings for the Yankees last season and batters hit .330 off him.
The good news: He had 34 strikeouts last season — the stuff is there — and has been able to consistently induce ground balls in the minors. And in 2018 at Double A and Triple A, he went 7-2 with a 1.94 ERA, a .168 batting average against and 71 strikeouts.
Tarpley and Yimi Garcia (who held batters to a .178 average out of the Dodgers bullpen last season) likely won’t be the only bullpen additions. Another veteran arm or two should be added by mid February.
As Mish noted, the Marlins have inquired about Cubs free agent relievers Pedro Strop (2-5, 4.97 ERA, 10 saves last season) and Brandon Kintzler (3-3, 2.68). Per Deportivo-Z 101, the Marlins and Rangers are finalists for Strop, who has been very effective for most of his career before an uneven 2019 season.
Mish noted there’s also the potential of a reunion with former Marlins pitcher David Phelps, who was 2-1, with a 3.41 ERA for Toronto and the Cubs last season.
This story was originally published January 23, 2020 at 4:06 PM.
