Here’s why getting homecourt in first round will be more difficult for Heat, others
In recent years, the question for the Heat usually has been how many wins it will take to capture the seventh or eighth seed.
With the franchise’s renaissance, the new question this year is how many wins it will take to get homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
And the answer, at the current pace, would be a daunting one: something in mid-50s, or higher than any Eastern Conference fourth seed has needed this century.
Entering Sunday, the team currently holding the fourth seed in the East (Toronto) was on pace for 53 wins, the team in the fifth spot (Philadelphia) was on pace for 51.3 wins and the team in the sixth seed (Indiana) was on pace for 50.5.
That’s staggering, when you consider this: In the 19 previous seasons this season, the Eastern Conference team that claimed the fourth seed averaged 47 wins, the team in the fifth seed averaged 44.9 wins and the team in the sixth seed averaged 42.7 wins.
So if the top six teams in the East maintain their current pace of winning, the fourth and fifth seeds would need to win six or seven more games than they ordinarily would, this century, to claim those seeds.
The Heat, meanwhile, entered Monday third in the East at 27-12, on a 57-win pace, and two games ahead of No. 4 Toronto. Boston (26-11) holds the second spot in the East, percentage points ahead of Miami, but seven games behind top-seed Milwaukee (35-6).
Some more perspective:
▪ With the current fourth seed on pace for 53 wins, consider that only three teams this century did the Eastern Conference fourth seed ever win even 50 games -- exactly 50 wins twice and 52 once, by the 2010-11 Magic.
During the years when a division champion was assured a top four seed (which is no longer the case), the fourth seed once had only 39 wins (Boston in 2011-12) and once only 42 wins (the 2003-04 Heat).
▪ With the current fifth seed on pace for 51.3 wins, consider that an Eastern Conference fifth seed this century has never won 50 games. The highest was 49, by the 2006-07 Bulls.
▪ With the current sixth seed on pace for 50.5 wins, consider that an Eastern Conference sixth seed has never won 49 games or more. One sixth seed won 48 games and two more won 46. Six times, 41 wins has been good enough for a sixth seed, which very likely won’t be the case this season.
JJ’S RETURN
James Johnson, back in the rotation amid Justise Winslow’s back injury, has done his part in three appearances in the past eight days, averaging 12.7 points and 4.3 rebounds while shooting 12 for 16 from the field and 7 for 7 on three-pointers.
Before this stretch, Johnson hadn’t played since Nov. 27.
“We need it,” Spoelstra said. “He stayed ready and has been giving us good minutes.”
The Heat has outscored its opponent by 16 points with Johnson on the floor over those three games, against Portland, Brooklyn and New York.
And after scoring 19 points in 20 minutes on Sunday, he figures to stay in the rotation, with Winslow out indefinitely with a back injury.
Here are my two other Monday pieces, with Heat notes (including Chris Silva’s new contract) and UM notes.
This story was originally published January 13, 2020 at 8:18 PM.
