Examining the Miami Hurricanes metrics, what’s most worrisome and what they mean
Asking and answering 10 questions as we break down the University of Miami Hurricanes’ disappointing football season, with numbers and some thoughts courtesy of our metrics correspondent, Daniel Gould:
▪ UM gave up the fourth-most sacks in the country (47). Who relinquished the most and what’s the 2020 solution?
Left tackle Zion Nelson permitted 11, most in the country and most on the team. Center Corey Gaynor yielded five, and guard Navaughn Donaldson, guard Jakai Clark and right tackle DJ Scaife each relinquished three apiece.
Yet incredibly, that quintet could return as next year’s starting group, unless:
1) a grad transfer is added from an interesting group including Stanford second-team All Pac 12 tackle Devery Hamilton and guard/tackle teammate Henry Hattis, a former Cardinal starter who has spoken with UM, per Canesport. OR
2) freshman Jalen Rivers is ready to take over either tackle position (more likely right tackle) and push Scaife to guard. OR
3) John Campbell wins the right tackle job.
There’s little reason to believe Kai Leon Herbert or one of the other young linemen will suddenly become better than the starters, but I suppose it’s possible. Guard Cleveland Reed will get another chance, too; he’s back after not attracting much interest in the transfer portal.
▪ How did UM’s final regular-season offensive stats compare to last year’s under Mark Richt?
Not well, which was immensely disappointing.
UM averaged 27.8 points per game, which was 73rd in the country. That compared with 28.8 points and 65th in the country in 2018. If only FBS opponents were factored in, the 2018 Canes also averaged slightly more points (24.8 to 24.6).
The Canes were last in third-down conversions (26.3 percent), compared with 59th in 2018 under Richt (39.4 percent).
Miami finished 127th of 130 teams in sacks allowed, with 47. That’s well above the 27 relinquished in Richt’s final season.
Miami was 120th in rushing at 121.8 yards per game, compared with 45th last season at 191.5.
UM’s TD percentage on red zone trips ranked 96th, compared with 35th in 2018.
I would expect offensive changes but it’s not yet clear what they will be. Coordinator Dan Enos has told recruits he will return.
▪ Defensively, who was the best Cane in pass coverage this season?
Cornerback Al Blades; he allowed 11 of 33 passes thrown in his coverage area to be caught, for 151 yards, two interceptions and no touchdowns.
Trajan Bandy was decent, allowing 19 of 44 passes in his coverage area to be caught, but for too many yards (274, 14.4 per catch) and one touchdown, with no interceptions.
As we reported Saturday, a teammate said Bandy is leaning strongly toward turning pro; he has family financial and medical issues.
▪ Who was the worst in pass coverage this season?
Safety Amari Carter gave up 212 yards on just nine completions (in 17 targets). Cornerback DJ Ivey allowed the most yards (349, on 24 for 41 completions). Those players, in particular, permitted too many big plays and both must be better in 2020.
Among all defensive backs, sophomore safety Gurvan Hall allowed the most touchdowns (three), while allowing 18 of 32 balls thrown in his coverage area to be caught, for 179 yards. UM believes he has the highest ceiling of their safeties; he wasn’t bad but he didn’t quite fulfill lofty expectations, either.
The linebackers again were uneven in pass coverage, with Shaq Quarterman allowing 14 completions in 21 targets for 153 yards and two touchdowns and Michael Pinckney allowing 12 of 17 but for a modest 67 yards and two touchdowns. Pinckney won’t play in the Independence Bowl.
The striker play was OK, not exceptional. Departing Romeo Finley allowed 15 completions in 31 targets for 166 yards with one touchdown and one interception. And Gilbert Frierson - next season’s likely starting striker - allowed 133 yards on just five completions.
▪ Who led UM in dropped passes?
Wide receiver KJ Osborn, with nine, which was disappointing. But at least he had 45 catches. He’ll get a chance in an NFL camp.
Tight end Will Mallory was second in drops with six (some would have been difficult catches) but played well during Brevin Jordan’s late-season absence and had eight catches for 174 yards in the final two games, showing considerable improvement.
▪ Which receivers or tight ends caught the highest percentage of passes thrown to them and who caught the lowest percent?
Receiver Mark Pope, who caught 15 of 23 passes thrown to him for 243 yards and two touchdowns (with three drops) and Brevin Jordan (35 for 49, 495, two touchdowns). Pope needs to get the ball more next season.
So does Jordan, who had a very good season (and was a Mackey award finalist) before the late-season injury and was one of UM’s best blockers.
Mallory caught the lowest percent: just 12 of 28.
▪ Who threw the better deep ball between Jarren Williams and N’Kosi Perry?
Williams; on passes thrown at least 20 yards in the air, he completed 13 of 29 for 465 yards and seven touchdowns and one interception.
Perry was 8 for 21 on those throws for 287 yards, two touchdowns and no picks.
Williams was also more accurate on throws between 11 and 19 yards (61 percent to 47 percent).
▪ How did snaps break down among the receivers?
Osborn had 612; Mike Harley 483; Jeff Thomas 361, Wiggins 289, Pope 154, Brian Hightower 103 before entering the transfer portal and Jeremiah Payton 25.
▪ What about the snap breakdown on the competitive defensive line?
At end, Jon Garvin played 588, Greg Rousseau 451, Trevon Hill 356 and Scott Patchan 254 after beginning the season as a starter.
At defensive tackle, Jon Ford played 427, Pat Bethel 407, Nesta Silvera 185, Chigozie Nnoruka 183 and Jordan Miller 147.
▪ Who played the most offensive or defensive snaps among natural freshmen?
Nelson with 768, followed by Clark with 706 and cornerback T’Cory Couch with 48.
▪ What did Gould conclude after studying every play the offense ran? He made several cogent points:
“The lack of a QB read on shotgun runs was a huge issue. It made short yardage harder than it needed to be and the defense just never had to account for it. That and so many plays were run to boundary/rolling left, which as tendency breakers is fine, but it was basically the regular and was ineffective.
“Protections with the offensive line/quarterback never looked right. Just made things way too hard on young OL & young QB. The offense ran a ton of different plays but wasn’t particular good at any of them and didn’t have a certain thing it could lean on when it needed a big play.
“I never saw an effort to focus the offense on getting certain players the ball, or using players in ways that maximized their skill set. Mallory is good while running but was being used on five-yard stop routes. Thomas wasn’t used downfield enough while Harley was getting deep targets. DeeJay Dallas is an ex-wide receiver but was only used on screens.
“Overall execution never looked right. I don’t know if it was just too many plays to get good at them or not being taught how to execute the plays correctly, but a lot of it was just so messy. OL/TEs just consistently not blocking people, RBs timing/angles had lots of issues. Receivers in bunch [sets] weren’t very good.
“The play calling/scheme and execution were both so volatile it just ruined so many plays. The offense against Louisville wasn’t different in any way from the rest of the year, but that day all the run/pass options worked and the offensive line did enough to let the running backs make big plays. And then the same offense against FIU has every RPO [run/pass option] batted down and the run game doing nothing.
“It just looked like [offensive coordinator Dan] Enos wanted to run his offense (which is a perfectly fine offense) with players that didn’t fit in anyway. He didn’t have the fullback, the blocking tight ends, the big offensive line, but did have the athletic QBs, athletic receivers but ran an offense that didn’t use any of that.”
QUICK STUFF
A UM player said some of the veterans on the team don’t seem terribly interested or motivated to play this Independence Bowl game. And that should be a big concern because Louisiana Tech should be highly motivated. That’s one reason why playing some of the hungry freshmen would seem to be a good idea.
The player said the offense struggled against the scout team defense during parts of practice last week - I wasn’t given an update on this week’s practices in Shreveport - and Tate Martell’s performance remained erratic.
This game is important in the sense that a loss would mean a 6-7 finish and make it more difficult to lure recruits or grad transfers with Miami’s remaining half-dozen-or-so scholarships.
This story was originally published December 24, 2019 at 4:00 PM.
