Does it make a difference where team picks in top 5? Here’s answer for Dolphins fans
For those fretting about where the Dolphins’ first-round pick in April’s draft will end up, here’s something to keep in mind:
In terms of how these players have turned out as pros, there has been no big difference this decade between the quality of the fourth and fifth picks compared with the first overall pick. In fact, the fourth pick has produced fewer disappointments than the first pick this decade.
Consider:
▪ Picks two through five have each produced more All-Pro seasons this decade that the first pick.
The second pick has yielded players who were first, second or third-team All Pros 12 times, compared with 11 for the fifth pick, seven for the fourth, five for the third and just three for the first.
▪ This decade, there have been more busts with the second and third picks than with the fourth and fifth picks.
▪ Not a single player selected fourth overall this decade has been a bust. Most have been very good among Trent Williams, AJ Green, Matt Kalil, Lane Johnson, Sammy Watkins, Amari Cooper, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette and Denzel Ward. (It’s too early to form a conclusion on Clelin Ferrell, Oakland’s 2019 pick at No. 4.)
▪ Of the players selected fifth overall this decade, only one was a bust (receiver Justin Blackmon, who played only 20 games because of repeated violations of the league’s substance policy). Another, Tennessee receiver Corey Davis, has been a good player (127 catches, six touchdowns in three seasons) but a mild disappointment in the context of where he was drafted.
The other players selected fifth this decade have been excellent: three-time All Pro safety Eric Berry, three-time All Pro cornerback Patrick Peterson; former second-team All Pro Ezekiel Ansah, three-time All Pro Khalil Mack, two time Pro Bowl guard Brandon Scherff, 2017 All Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey and Denver’s Bradley Chubb (injured this season but 12 sacks as a rookie). It’s too soon to form a conclusion on the 2019 fifth pick, Tampa linebacker Devin White, but he has been very productive.
▪ By comparison, the second and third picks have produced multiple disappointments or busts this decade.
The second pick this decade yielded All Pros Ndamukong Suh and Von Miller and one-time Pro Bowl QB Carson Wentz and 2018 offensive rookie of the year Saquon Barkley, plus blossoming 49ers star rookie Nick Bosa.
But the second pick also yielded four big disappointments: quarterbacks Robert Griffin III and Marcus Mariotta, offensive linemen Luke Joekel and Greg Robinson and a quarterback (Mitch Trubisky), with mixed success so far.
▪ The third pick has yielded former All Pro Bowls Gerald McCoy and Marcell Darius, one-time Pro Bowler Joey Bosa and Dante Fowler (25 sacks in four years), but also busts in Trent Richardson (3.3 career average in four years), Dolphins’ pick Dion Jordan, and mild disappointments in Blake Bortles and Solomon Thomas (two sacks as a 49ers backup this year). The jury is out on Jets Sam Darnold and Quinnen Williams
▪ The first pick also has had more misses than the fifth pick has this decade. The successful ones: Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Myles Garrett (suspended now). Offensive lineman Eric Fisher made one Pro Bowl, and Jadeveon Clowney was a former second-team All Pro.
But Sam Bradford and Jameis Winston and to an extent, Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield have been disappointments. The jury’s out on Kyler Murray.
With this draft, there are two clear-cut top two prospects in LSU quarterback Joe Burrow and Ohio State defensive end Chase Young, with something of a falloff perceived after that.
But the good news for the Dolphins is that there has been a very low bust quotient with the fourth and fifth picks this decade.
Sot it might not make much difference if Miami picks fifth compared with third.
ESPN’s Todd McShay ranks Young and Burrow first and second on his big board, followed by Alabama receiver Jerry Jeudy, Ohio State cornerback Jeffrey Okudah, Clemson outside linebacker Isaiah Simmons, LSU safety Grant Delpit, Auburn defensive tackle Derrick Brown, Oklahoma receiver CeeDee Lamb, Florida cornerback CJ Henderson and Georgia offensive tackle Andrew Thomas.
Here’s what the Dolphins must do to get the first pick, second pick or another pick in the top five.
This story was originally published December 18, 2019 at 9:38 PM.
