Experts explain one of biggest reasons why Miami can’t break out of this 15-year rut
Part 1 of a 3-part series
Want to know perhaps the biggest reason UM can’t escape this 15-year malaise?
It’s staring at you when you turn on your television on Sunday and watch the 49ers, Ravens, Panthers and Steelers.
It’s staring at you when you turn on your computer and look at the list of the top South Florida high school prospects and where they’re headed for college.
Most of the top players from South Florida schools continue to bypass UM, and recruiting analysts and coaches don’t see that changing, not when the Canes cannot beat FIU or Duke, let alone crack the top 25.
Though UM has landed the top player from Miami-Dade three times since 2012 (including disappointing Navaughn Donaldson) and have a nonbinding commitment from the top Dade player in the 2020 class (Belen running back Don Chaney Jr.), Miami hasn’t landed the top player in Broward since Tracy Howard in 2012.
Alabama has the past three top recruits from Broward, and Georgia has a commitment from the top 2020 prospect -- St. Thomas Aquinas receiver Marcus Rosemy.
What’s more, Miami landed only three of the top 20 rated players from Dade/Broward and Palm Beach in its 2019 class.
Thanks to a late rally, the Canes have commitments from four of Rivals’ top 16 South Florida recruits in the 2020 cycle. Of the 18 South Florida recruits in ESPN’s top 300 list of 2020 prospects, only three have pledged to Miami.
And UM recently has had decommitments from several 2021 local recruits.
In the Canes’ defense, these UM coaches have done a good job recently adding two top local players (Deerfield Beach running back Jaylon Knighton and Hialeah Champagnat defensive back Jalen Harrell) while holding onto Chaney and others, despite the disappointing 6-6 season.
But from a big picture standpoint, misses in local recruiting over 15 years - along with other factors - help explain why this program can’t escape this hamster wheel of mediocrity.
“There’s a lot of frustration with this program because it’s been 18 years since they’ve been really relevant,” recruiting analyst Larry Blustein said. “You look at these kids Miami has and say [some of them] would never even make the taxi squad on the UM teams in the early 2000s and 1990s and 1986. It would be impossible with this type of roster to compete for a national title. They need to have a better roster.”
Last year’s NFL draft had four players from Broward selected in the first round. None went to UM and all are making a big impact as NFL rookies: Ohio State’s Nick Bosa with the 49ers, Michigan’s Devin Bush with the Steelers, FSU’s Brian Burns with Carolina and Oakland’s Marquise Hollywood Brown with Baltimore. UM’s highest-drafted local player last season, Killian’s Sheldrick Redwine, has 26 tackles as primarily a backup for the Browns.
So why can’t UM attract more of the top local kids? In conversations in recent weeks, two local coaches (who requested anonymity) and recruiting analysts cited nine reasons:
▪ Winning:
It’s the most obvious one, but it can’t be understated. Even Manny Diaz said earlier this year that “kids want to go where the winning is. So, that’s hard because you have to create the winning to get them to come to where the winning is.”
Recruiting analyst Charles Fishbein said: “They need to win ball games, period. It’s tough to get out of this [cycle], hard to recruit elite kids” with seven-win seasons.
▪ Miami’s not the cool place anymore:
One local prep coach said the Canes’ history no longer carries any weight with top recruits, who were infants or not even conceived when Miami last won big. “These kids don’t know who Ed Reed is,” the coach said. “They’ve lost all the advantage of their history.”
▪ The ability for players to travel more to see other campuses:
One person intimately involved in the seven-on-seven circuit said people connected to other schools are giving money to family members of top recruits to cover travel expenses to get them on their campus.
“The way it works,” one local coach explained, “is they say we will give you $5000 if you bring your kid to our campus. Once these kids see these campuses, they’re sold. Basically, the money has been created for these kids to travel to see other schools, and it’s not their money.”
▪ The cheating issue:
A handful of people intimately involved in local recruiting said it’s a factor hurting Miami, though not as much as the winning issue. “You’ve got to cheat like everybody is and Miami can’t now after the Nevin Shapiro thing,” said one local prep coach.
“As squeaky clean as Manny is, I don’t think they would do that,” Blustein said. “As one of the coaches told me that was at Miami before, we’ll never get into a bidding war with some of these other schools for players.”
▪ Not enough local coaches pushing UM on their kids (not that they’re obligated to):
“Coaches in general and guys who have influence over these local kids are not painting a rosy picture about Miami,” Blustein said. “They can see Miami gets beaten by teams they should have beaten and those kids listen, or they’ll say, ‘I haven’t seen that coach at my school.’”
▪ Adults with influence on these prospects are often pushing prospects to go elsewhere:
This is an underrated issue, Blustein and the coaches said.
“There are hangers on who tell kids and parents negative stuff [about Miami],” Blustein said. “And when teams like LSU come in, they say things like, ‘Why are you considering Miami?’ There’s more negative recruiting now than ever.
“And a lot of these guys on the outside of the program who maybe have more ties with a Florida or a Florida State are pushing those kids away from Miami because a lot of those coaches aren’t as receptive to Miami or Florida or Florida State are. Some of them are part of high school staffs; some are community guys that have been around forever.”
▪ Some better local recruiters on other staffs:
Blustein said UF tight ends coach Larry Scott, a former UM assistant and interim coach, “is probably better [equipped] to get South Florida kids than anyone on Miami’s staff.”
FSU had two strong South Florida recruiters in David Kelly (who left after Willie Taggert’s October firing) and tight ends coach Telly Lockette, “who would have been a great hire for Miami,” Blustein said. “Miami doesn’t have a guy who can sit in a living room and pull in these kids.”
What do local high school coaches say about Miami?
“They don’t talk terribly about them, but a lot of these schools aren’t sending these kids there,” Blustein said. “Their coaches are telling them, ‘Why would you go to Miami? They lost to this team and don’t draw anyone.’”
▪ And speaking of attendance:
Plantation American Heritage alum and New England Patriots running back Sony Michel once told me that Georgia was more appealing to him than UM because a lot more people attend the games. One local coach said on-campus stadiums - like those at Alabama and Ohio State - hold great appeal to players.
▪ Some players simply want to experience life elsewhere:
Four-star Class of 2020 South Dade High guard Jonathan Denis, who committed to Oregon without even visiting UM, said the Canes did “nothing wrong at all. I wanted to go far and explore things and try new things and get out of my comfort zone. [What the new UM coaches are doing] is going to be something special for real.” UM has tried to get Denis to change his mind, but that appears highly unlikely.
And St. Thomas Aquinas linebacker Derrick Wingo said he committed to UF in June in part because he wanted to be “not too close to home, not too far from home.”
As one local coach said: “There is no more of the ‘I have to play in front of my boys and family’ mentality. Now it’s a business and kids ask themselves, ‘What’s the best place for me to go to get to the NFL?’” And they’re often deciding it’s Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Clemson and UF, among others.
Coming in part 2: Suggestions for UM to solve this problem.
Please click here for my two Wednesday Dolphins pieces.
This story was originally published December 11, 2019 at 7:10 PM.
