Examining Dolphins’ draft scenarios and what must happen to finish in top four spots
For some Dolphins fans, the drama surrounding the jockeying for position at the top of the 2020 NFL Draft is the perverse equivalent of the suspense/anxiety experienced by fans during a race for a playoff berth.
And the stakes might be equally high, if not higher.
With some luck and more losing, the Dolphins could be positioned to select LSU’s Joe Burrow, the quarterback considered the safest and best prospect by several draft analysts, amid the hip injury to Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa.
But in another scenario, the Dolphins could miss out altogether on a franchise quarterback — if Tagovailoa returns to Alabama for a senior season or if his medicals raise more red flags — and also miss out on the transformational defensive prospect in this draft, Ohio State defensive end Chase Young, who has 16.5 sacks in nine games.
The 2-9 Dolphins stand fourth in the current draft order, per NFL.com, and realistically are competing with five other teams for draft position: Cincinnati (0-11 and in the top spot in the current draft order), the Giants (2-9, in the second second), Washington (2-9, in the third spot), Denver (3-8, fifth) and Atlanta (3-8, sixth). Miami would need to win two more games — a tall task — to risk falling behind Detroit and Arizona, who are both 3-7-1.
If teams finish tied, the better draft pick goes to the team whose opponents have the lowest cumulative winning percentage. And in this area, the Dolphins are in good position to beat out Cincinnati and Atlanta and probably Denver for a better pick if Miami has the same record as any or all of those teams. But Miami is on pace to lose a tie to the Giants and is in a precarious position against Washington.
All of the Dolphins’ opponents this season currently have an 89-87 record, compared with 102-73-1 for Cincinnati, 81-93-2 for the Giants, 89-86-1 for Washington, 93-81-1 for Denver and 100-75-1 for Atlanta.
The Redskins situation is particularly worrisome. At one point, Miami had a substantial lead in the strength of schedule (SOS) tiebreaker. If the records of all of Washington’s and Miami’s opponents are tabulated (including games remaining on their schedules), Miami would be very narrowly ahead in terms of getting the better pick. Washington leads narrowly if only opponents to date are factored into the SOS formula, which explains why NFL.com has the Redskins ahead of Miami as of now.
Opponents that the Dolphins play twice count twice in the SOS tabulation.
Here’s the most likely path for Miami to finish with a top-four pick:
▪ Dolphins picking first scenario: With Cincinnati benching struggling rookie Ryan Finley and going back to veteran Andy Dalton at quarterback, the Bengals’ chances of a win at home against the Jets on Sunday and Dec. 22 at Miami rise somewhat.
The most likely path for the Dolphins to get the top pick would include Miami losing out (including games against the Giants and Bengals); the Bengals beating Miami and winning one other game (home to the Jets and Browns are most realistic); and possibly — depending on how strength of schedule plays out, the Redskins losing one more game (with a home game against the Giants on Dec. 22 the most winnable on Washington’s schedule). The Redskins also have road games at Green Bay, at Carolina and at Dallas and a home game against Philadelphia.
If Miami picks first, Burrow at this point would seem the safest pick.
▪ Dolphins picking second scenario: There are many ways this could happen, but the most realistic is the Dolphins losing out; Cincinnati beating Miami but nobody else; and possibly Washington winning one more game (because of the uncertain SOS tiebreaker). If Burrow is off the board, Young would be the safest choice in this spot, unless Dolphins doctors and front office officials are convinced that taking Tagovailoa this high is worth the risk.
▪ Dolphins picking third scenario: This would be likely if Miami beats only Cincinnati to finish 3-13 and if the Giants also finish with three wins (achieved by beating Miami) but the Redskins finish with four wins. The Giants’ schedule — beyond Miami — includes the game at Washington, home to Green Bay and two against Philadelphia.
Miami also would be third if it beats only Cincinnati, Washington wins once more (and wins the SOS tiebreaker with Miami) and the Giants win two more.
▪ Dolphins picking fourth scenario: Unless the Giants — and possibly Washington — win two more games apiece, this seems more likely if Miami beats only the Bengals to finish 3-13.
In this scenario of picking third or fourth — presuming Burrow and Young are off the board — the Dolphins could take Tagovailoa if Miami’s doctors and front office believe he’s not a big health risk to select this high up (unless the Redskins grab him first) or trade down or choose among Alabama junior receiver Jerry Jeudy, Georgia offensive tackle Andrew Thomas, Ohio State junior cornerback Jeff Okudah, Clemson junior outside linebacker Isaiah Simmons, Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert, LSU safety Grant Delpit, Auburn defensive tackle Derrick Brown and Oklahoma receiver CeeDee Lamb.
This story was originally published November 26, 2019 at 3:12 PM.
