Dolphins counting on Year 2 leap from players. What that would look like for Tua
A sizable chunk of whatever improvement the 2021 Miami Dolphins do over last year’s 10-6 record must come from last year’s rookie class.
That’s what the personnel department is counting on. That’s what the coaching staff is counting on. That’s what everyone running the team has made clear to the players.
“Yeah, that’s what everyone has been saying,” offensive tackle Austin Jackson said Thursday. “I’ve heard that a lot, as well.”
It’s a perpetual topic “du jour” because the Dolphins have a big investment on their 2020 draft class.
Jackson was a first-round pick and a starter.
Robert Hunt was a second-round pick and a starter.
Noah Igbinoghene was a first-round pick, a part-time starter and key backup.
Raekwon Davis was a second-round pick and a starter.
Brandon Jones was a third-round pick, a part-time starter and played 37 percent of Miami’s defensive snaps.
Solomon Kindley was a fourth-round pick and a starter.
Blake Ferguson was a sixth-round pick and a starter.
Am I forgetting anyone?
Yes, of course, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was the face of Miami’s 2020 draft class, a first-round pick, a starter and the franchise’s hopes this year and beyond.
All of those players not only must make a significant improvement over their rookie seasons — which for most were more than merely solid — but they must become cornerstones of the franchise.
They must take a leap for the Dolphins to take a leap.
Everyone in the organization acknowledges this.
But what would this leap look like tangibly? What does a second-year leap look like in the stat book?
Let’s look at Tagovailoa because, again, he’s the one with the highest expectations for improvement:
The 33rd Team is an NFL/NCAA think tank that collaborates with former NFL front office and coaching personnel including former Dolphins executive Mike Tannenbaum. It works to grow and learn from current and past football analytics and experiences.
The 33rd Team recently addressed the subject of the second-year leap, which is sometimes little else than a skip, and reported that of the 30 quarterbacks selected in the first round from 2010 to 2019....
▪ 63.3 percent improved their completion percentage in their second year.
▪ 63.3 percent improved their yards per game in their second year.
▪ 60 percent improved their touchdowns per game in their second year.
▪ 70 percent improved their interceptions per game in their second year.
Josh Rosen, who the Dolphins acquired from Arizona in 2019 for a second- and fifth-round draft pick, was one of the exceptions. In his second NFL season, he did not make a leap from his rookie year in Arizona.
Maybe that’s one reason the Dolphins moved on from Rosen after one year.
Anyway, the 33rd Team ran the numbers and those 30 first-round quarterbacks on average improved their completion percentage by 2.05 percent.
Their touchdowns per game improved by 0.29 per game.
Their interceptions per game declined by 0.09.
And so if Tagovailoa merely plays to the mean of what a majority of his first-round quarterback predecessors have done the past decade we’re looking at:
Tagovailoa’s completion percentage rising from 64.1 to 66.2 percent.
Tagovailoa’s touchdown mark settling in at 24 in 17 games this season, after throwing 11 in 10 games last season.
Tagovailoa’s interception mark would be seven in 17 games this season after throwing five in 10 games last season.
So a second season in which Tagovailoa throws 24 touchdown passes versus 7 interceptions and completes 66 percent of his passes wouldn’t quite put the quarterback in elite company with Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, Seattle’s Russell Wilson, Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers or even Buffalo’s Josh Allen.
But it would be good progress. And it would seemingly give the Dolphins winning quarterback play.
About that: The point of having second-year players take a leap from their rookie years is to allow the team to be better year over year.
The first-round quarterbacks of the past decade improved their win percentage by 7 percent in their second season versus their rookie year.
Tagovailoa had a 6-3 record in the games he started for a .666 winning percentage. If the math holds and Miami’s winning percentage rises to .673 in games Tagovailoa starts, the Dolphins would be looking at between 11 or 12 wins if their quarterback can play 17 games.
Now you understand why so many people in the Dolphins organization are talking so much about their 2020 rookies making a big second-year leap.
This story was originally published May 21, 2021 at 11:30 AM.
