Miami Dolphins must weigh drafting left tackle Penei Sewell. Here’s how that is done
Penei Sewell is the picture of what a premier NFL left tackle prospect looks like. He’s 6-4 and 331 pounds (according to his pro day measurements) and he’s strong — he maxed out at 30 repetitions of 225 pounds on the bench press.
And when he’s been on the field, that’s when stuff has started to look really good because he played 1,376 snaps during his college career at Oregon and gave up just one sack.
One.
He is the top-graded lineman by ProFootballFocus since it began grading college players in 2014.
So he’s quite good and a top 5-10 draft prospect all day long.
Which is the reason the Miami Dolphins have considered drafting him No. 6 overall.
This isn’t a guess. The Dolphins have done this work. They have to have done this work.
Because Miami and Sewell might cross paths Thursday night.
How?
Well, if Florida tight end Kyle Pitts is selected No. 4 overall, either by Atlanta or some team trading up to pick Pitts, and LSU receiver Ja’Marr Chase is then selected by the Cincinnati Bengals at No. 5, guess who just might be the highest-rated player on Miami’s board sitting there at No. 6?
Penei Sewell.
Full disclosure: Different teams stack their board differently and it is entirely possible the Dolphins could be the outlier club stacking a receiver such as DeVonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle ahead of Sewell based on their drastic need for playmakers.
But all things being equal, and not taking need into account, Sewell is a consensus better prospect than Smith or Waddle. Also, first-round offensive tackles bust much less often than wide receivers so they’re safer picks.
That’s the reason the Dolphins must have already accepted this as a possible scenario in deciding what to do next ...
...which would be take Sewell, or take someone else, or take the first available exit in a trade down from No. 6.
And since the Dolphins have done the exercise, let’s do the same one here to see what a difficult decision they might find themselves staring at on draft night:
Before we begin, let’s submit some facts into evidence, OK?
First, Sewell is a left tackle and has not played right tackle since high school.
The Dolphins drafted left tackle Austin Jackson last year with the No. 18 overall selection, which came in the Minkah Fitzpatrick trade, and he had an acceptable, albeit not good rookie season. ProFootballFocus rated him 75th among 79 tackles.
Jackson did not play right tackle at USC.
The Dolphins drafted right tackle Robert Hunt in the second round of last year’s draft, and he was better than Jackson. He was rated 52nd among 79 tackles.
The Dolphins don’t need a left guard. They have veteran Ereck Flowers, and for a time he was the team’s best lineman before falling off a bit after a bout with COVID. He finished the season rated 32nd among 80 guards, according to ProFootballFocus.
Other facts to remember: The Dolphins need playmakers to help quarterback Tua Tagovailoa develop in his second season.
Got all that?
Good.
So ...
The reasons to draft Sewell at No. 6:
▪ Because he’s an upgrade over Jackson at left tackle.
▪ Because you can always move Jackson to right tackle or try him at right guard.
▪ Because you can also play Sewell at right tackle and move Hunt to right guard, which is where some NFL scouts thought he would be end up, anyway.
▪ Because protecting Tagovailoa is also important to his development.
▪ Because the Dolphins have two first-round picks and two second-round picks and the draft is quite deep at wide receiver. So Miami can always pick a receiver with selection No. 18 in the first round.
The reasons not to draft Sewell at No. 6:
▪ Because that is basically admitting picking Jackson last year was a mistake. And the repercussions of that are you’re giving up on a high draft pick after only one year at his position. Now, the Dolphins have done this under this administration before, notably with Michael Deiter, who went from starting left guard to a backup center and swing interior lineman. But Deiter was a third-round pick not a first-round pick.
▪ Because such a move puts a hole in the idea, articulated by coach Brian Flores, that the Dolphins are about developing their young players — a process that takes patience and more than one season.
▪ Because replacing Jackson admits picking him in the first round was an error. And that means the trade that brought the No. 18 pick for Fitzpatrick was something of a mess because the defensive back has been outstanding for the Pittsburgh Steelers the past two seasons.
▪ Because putting Sewell at left tackle means Jackson has to move or be a backup. He would have to move to a position he has never played and compete with a player who graded higher than him last year. So he’s at a disadvantage.
▪ Because plugging in Jackson at right tackle and moving Hunt to right guard means you’re getting worse at right tackle and starting over at right guard with a player who dedicated himself to learning the right tackle spot last year.
▪ Because plugging Sewell in at right tackle would mean he’s now starting at a position he hasn’t played in three years. And, again, you’re also moving your right tackle from a year ago to a new spot so the entire right side is learning new spots on the fly.
▪ Because the Dolphins would be using a premium pick to address a spot they addressed last year with a premium pick while not addressing a position not previously addressed with a high pick — namely, a wide receiver.
▪ Finally, because the Dolphins can still add a wide receiver later, such as pick No. 18. But no one believes Miami will get the same quality of receiver prospect at No. 18 as it would get at No. 6. The drop is real and to think otherwise is just unrealistic.
Conclusion:
I don’t think Dolphins general manager Chris Grier or Flores are too concerned about the idea that drafting Sewell would look like they made a grave error with Jackson.
It would definitely call into question last year’s selection, but they would probably be able to spin it to owner Stephen Ross as simply upgrading at a key position and he would probably buy the argument without recognizing his team is retracing steps.
So those first couple of bullet points on the reasons not to pick Sewell might not even be mentioned in the building regardless of their validity.
More importantly, I think the Dolphins must heavily weigh how far Jackson can improve in his so-called second-year jump that Grier mentioned last week most young players make. And they must compare Jackson with that jump to what Sewell will be in 2022 after his expected second-year jump.
Then the Dolphins must compare the difference between a receiver selected No. 6 and one selected No. 18.
The Dolphins must then measure one gap to the other — Jackson vs. Sewell against No. 6 receiver vs. No. 18 receiver (or higher with a trade-up).
Wherever the gulf is wider, that’s where the Dolphins probably have to go.
This story was originally published April 26, 2021 at 1:13 AM.
