Dolphins likely drafting a running back. Some say Najee Harris in Round 1 a bad idea
While many have been captivated by what the Miami Dolphins are doing with their first pick of the 2021 draft — trading down, trading up, picking a receiver or a tight end — there’s value in looking away from the shiny object in one hand and focusing on the equally valuable object in the other.
The No. 18 overall selection.
What are the Dolphins gonna do with that little ditty?
There’s a line of thinking (speculating, rumor mongering) that suggests general manager Chris Grier will take a running back.
So either Alabama’s Najee Harris or Clemson’s Travis Etienne, because those are most often believed to be the best in this draft class.
Well, allow this space to burst your bubble of certainty about all of this running back stuff.
This is a two-pronged issue:
Issue 1: Is selecting a running back in the first round really the way to go?
Issue 2: Harris? At No. 18?
Etienne at No. 18?
Would either be a value pick at No. 18?
So let’s address these two issues ...
First, the way most NFL teams look at top running backs now is finding guys who can contribute for three to four years. That’s it. Nobody is worried about finding a second-contract running back anymore. No one is thinking that far ahead.
Because running backs don’t often last that long. They get hurt a lot. And there’s just so many of them, it’s easy to replace them unless you have a generational talent.
That’s the reason drafting them early in the draft, indeed at any time in the first round, requires significant courage and conviction that a player is special.
And even generational talents, the special guys, don’t always pay dividends on the top-pick investment.
Consider: In the past five drafts, eight running backs have been selected in the first round. There have been 17 quarterbacks drafted in the first round at the same time, and 17 wide receivers have gone in the first round in that time.
So already you see teams placing more of a premium on other offensive weapons over running backs — and, yes, the first round is the premium round.
Now consider the players and their production.
Saquon Barkley, drafted No. 2 overall in 2018, was amazing his rookie season, good his second year, and injured (ACL) his third season.
Christian McCaffrey, who went No. 8 overall in the 2017 draft, was outstanding his second and third seasons but was injured (ankle, shoulder) last season.
Ezekiel Elliott, selected No. 4 in 2016, has been an example of consistency and outstanding performance and durability. He has rushed for more than 1,300 yards in three of his seasons and for more than 900 yards in the other two.
But Rashaad Penny?
Leonard Fournette?
Josh Jacobs?
Sony Michel, who the New England Patriots selected one pick before Baltimore selected quarterback Lamar Jackson?
The jury might still be out on the value of those first-round picks, but it’s leaning against anointing any of them as special.
Bottom line is players such as Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook and Jonathan Taylor — none of which were selected in the first round — have been greater value picks for their respective teams.
Indeed, the NFL had nine running backs go over 1,000 yards last season.
None were former first-round draft picks.
So the case against picking a running back in the first round is historically compelling.
That brings us to this year’s crop of possible first-round running backs.
There’s maybe two: Harris and Etienne.
Harris is my favorite. He’s 6-2 and 230 pounds and he’s productive as a runner and pass catcher. Would I pick him No. 18 overall?
It would be a desperation pick.
It wouldn’t be a value pick by any means.
But, again, I like the player so I’m open to the idea.
Chris Simms, meanwhile, doesn’t like Harris at all in the first round. Or even early in the second round. The former NFL quarterback, now an analyst for NBCSports, believes Harris is an end of the second-round or third-round pick.
And now you’re going, “Who cares what Chris Simms thinks?”
Well, NBCSports cares. He’s on national TV every Sunday night during football season.
And last year he was one of the very few draft evaluators who had Justin Herbert not just ahead, but clearly ahead, of Tua Tagovailoa as a draft prospect.
That orphaned opinion a year ago suddenly has many fathers after the 2020 NFL season.
Simms ranks Harris his No. 4 running back in this draft.
Why?
“Lack of speed is a real issue,” Simms told the 1.53 million subscribers of NBCSports’ youtube channel. “There is a true lack of speed .. Just watching him break out in the open at Alabama, it’s underwhelming. If you had to ask me, I would go, ‘it’s 4.65, 4.68, it might be a 4.7-type of running back. I think that’s what he is.”
Simms said Harris not running the 40-yard dash at either of Alabama’s pro days is a red flag.
“Are there some things he does really well? There’s no doubt,” Simms said. “But man, is he running in a lot of space at Alabama. And that’s where my first question is in the NFL, if there’s nothing there in the NFL, what’s he going to do for you that way?”
Simms doesn’t hate Harris, although he did mention the running back’s “below-average power” for his 230 pounds.
“His ability to catch the football out of the backfield is the best thing he does,” Simms said. “He’s a natural. He’s got a real niche. At the very least, I’m not going to sit here and tell you Najee Harris is a slam dunk No. 1 NFL running back. I think he’s a No. 2. That’s what we’re getting into. But he will have a real role in the pass game.”
Readers of this space remember Fake GM Mando championed the idea of picking receivers in the first round and addressing the running back need in the second round with Javonte Williams.
Of course, if Harris is available when the Dolphins pick at No. 36 in the second round, get him. If not, I would accept Williams in the second.
Not Simms.
“He could be your 1 [at the position],” Simms said of Williams, “but you’re going to always be, ‘We can get a little bit better.’ “
Simms ranked Williams No. 5 among the draft eligible running backs.
Simms ranked Louisville’s Javian Hawkins as his No. 3 running back despite the fact he’s 5-8 and 185 pounds. He compares Hawkins to Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert because of his speed.
“He’s a home run hitter,” Simms said.
Simms obviously values speed and discounts size because he’s got North Carolina’s Michael Carter, who is 5-8 and 199 pounds, as his No. 2 running back.
And Simms rates Etienne as his No. 1 running back in this draft.
Etienne has good size (5-10 and 215 pounds) and excellent speed (4.41).
“The most complete running back in the draft, there’s no doubt about that for me,” Simms said.
“He can be a patient runner... But when he sees what he wants, his acceleration it’s way better than you expect or think. He sees what he wants, he gets to the hole and the second level can’t get there in time to shut him down.
“He’s got no weakness to his game.”
Simms compares Etienne to Alvin Kamara of New Orleans and Kareem Hunt of the Cleveland Browns. Both those players are very good.
But a reminder: Neither Kamara nor Hunt was drafted in the first round.
Just saying.
This story was originally published April 15, 2021 at 2:13 PM.
