The scenario Dolphins had to worry about when they made big draft trades could play out
If you’re a big fan of mock drafts this time of year I suggest you skip the one released Thursday by ESPN’s Todd McShay.
Because while this latest mock draft does not rise to the level of a nightmare for the Miami Dolphins, it definitely is a disquieting dream.
That’s because McShay, through his sourcing and what he’s hearing, sent three quarterbacks to Jacksonville, the New York Jets, and San Francisco 49ers with the first three selections, like everyone else on the Earth has done.
Those three QBs are Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Mac Jones, respectively.
And then it gets bad for Miami.
With the fourth selection, the Atlanta Falcons select University of Florida tight end Kyle Pitts.
And with the fifth selection, the Cincinnati Bengals select LSU receiver Ja’Marr Chase.
And with the sixth selection, which they acquired through last week’s Twin Trades, the Dolphins select Alabama’s DeVonta Smith.
Whaddaya think?
Well, let me share what I’m hearing from my personnel sources around the league — scouts, current and former personnel people, and even a couple of general managers:
Pitts, Chase and Smith are all top 10-caliber prospects. But no one I’ve spoken to has Smith ahead of the other two. He’s third in a three-player race.
I personally believe Smith is great, but I recognize Chase is a better wide receiver prospect because he’s bigger, stronger, faster, and was more effective on the field, playing in the same SEC as Smith plays, the last time he hit the field in 2019.
At least two teams that I know of (this is not information most teams share) have Chase rated ahead of Smith and it’s not close. “It’s the difference between love and like,” one NFC GM front office source told me.
Pitts, meanwhile, is universally considered to be a top-five prospect. He’s just a different guy and on Wednesday, during his Florida Pro Day testing, Pitts showed exactly how different.
So, basically, in a scenario where there are three stellar playmaker prospects — and I do stress prospects because no one knows which of these men will develop into NFL stars, if any — the Dolphins are in line to pick the third-best.
Some of you might be fine with that.
Some might be disappointed.
The Dolphins will show no such disappointment if the scenario stated above plays out during the April 29 draft. They will put a great face on it because that’s what they have done for 100 percent of the players they have ever drafted.
Smith will be portrayed as the target all along.
And forward we all will go.
The truth, however, is this scenario shows the losing bet in the gamble general manager Chris Grier — with the agreement of coach Brian Flores and club owner Stephen Ross, who was involved in the conversations — took when they traded down from No. 3 overall.
That trade, which sent the Dolphins from No. 3 to No. 12 to No. 6, where they currently reside, effectively removed the Miami from a perch where they were practically guaranteed of picking the highest rated non-quarterback on their draft board.
Said another way, the trade reduced the chance of having a choice of the entire field to (in a worst-case scenario) a choice of the third-rated non-quarterback.
McShay’s mock draft gives life to that worst-case scenario.
One more thing: Grier has been roundly praised for making the trade he did by national media that include former NFL front office people.
Louis Riddick at ESPN and Scott Pioli at the NFL Network — both former NFL front office types — have led the chorus of applause.
But what none of the pundits (including me) have previously pointed out is that the Twin Trades brought the Dolphins first round picks in 2022 and 2023 -- the earliest of which, the pick in 2022, they flipped to the Eagles.
So the Twin Trades brought the Dolphins an extra first-rounder in 2023. And that’s great for 2023.
But it weakened the Dolphins in 2021 because it moved the Dolphins down in the first round and didn’t bring any 2021 draft upgrades in exchange.
Quite the contrary.
The Dolphins ultimately traded back three slots in the first round, gave up a fourth-round pick, and added a fifth-round pick. That is the extent of what the trades did for the Dolphins this year.
Again, adding the 2023 first-rounder is going to be good.
But that’s two years away.
Right now, the Dolphins have to be holding their breath the McShay scenario doesn’t play out so they can have a wider choice of which bigtime target they can select this year.
This story was originally published April 1, 2021 at 12:49 PM.
