Miami Dolphins offseason plan options: Slow and safe or ludicrous speed | Opinion
Just so we’re totally clear: Last offseason was not normal.
It wasn’t common. It wasn’t typical. In some regards it wasn’t real.
Last offseason’s free agency spending spree by the Miami Dolphins was flat-out unheard of — like landing a fish with a gold coin in its mouth.
Last offseason the Dolphins, flush with salary cap space after jettisoning multiple big-name players and clearing the books of their contracts, spent $217 million in new unrestricted free agent contracts.
Those contracts included $112.5 million in fully guaranteed money.
It was the largest free agency spending spree in team history — blowing away the 2013 offseason’s free agency haul that cost $158.5 million.
It was also the largest free agency expenditure in the entire NFL for 2020.
And, in part, because of the production from the new free agent class, the Dolphins improved from 5-11 in 2019 to 10-6.
So, logic asks the question, if last offseason’s approach helped improve the team why not do it again?
Well, if Dolphins owner Stephen Ross wasn’t constrained by that pesky NFL salary cap, the Dolphins might just do it again. Ross has said multiple times he would open his wallet to bring a big-time winner to South Florida if he could.
But he can’t because, well, rules.
So the Dolphins are indeed limited by the cap this year. The club will have between $24 million and $29 million in salary cap space at the start of the league year, depending on where the 2021 salary cap is set and what direction the club wants to follow.
So, barring significant and aggressive moves, the Dolphins won’t be coming anywhere close to last year’s extravagances in free agency.
But ...
Stuff can indeed happen. And that’s what we’re here to decipher.
This Dolphins’ offseason can basically take one of two approaches:
There’s going to be the slow and safe way and there’s the ludicrous speed way.
Slow and safe includes trying to keep as much of the team together as possible while maybe adding one star free agent or perhaps two or three midlevel-type free agents.
Slow and safe will mostly depend on the draft for any big-time talent infusion the team enjoys. The Dolphins have two first-round draft picks, two second-round picks and a full quiver of picks in the later rounds.
So the improvement of last year’s 10 draftees, including five taken in the first two rounds, and this year’s four rookies from the first two rounds will have to serve as the tide that lifts the Dolphins’ ship of state.
Slow and safe is not guaranteed to offer a big improvement. There might be some setbacks because not every player improves every single week or every year despite what some coaches say.
So this is a slow ...
Steady ....
Safer approach.
It probably won’t result in a big leap unless a couple of players unexpectedly start playing as if suddenly touched by the hand of God. But slow and safe often makes sense.
There is one major downside to slow and safe: It waves off the fact this franchise has missed the playoffs each of the first two seasons coach Brian Flores and general manager Chris Grier were running things as if there’s no urgency to finally make the postseason in Year 3.
Then there’s ludicrous speed — aptly named because it is neither slow, nor safe.
This track is about getting the Dolphins in the playoffs in 2021 and turning them into an annual contender for the next four or five years and whatever happens after that, we’ll worry about when that time comes.
So, ludicrous speed must start with an answer to whether the Dolphins can get Deshaun Watson in trade or not. Sorry, but it does.
If the Houston Texans finally and reluctantly decide to make their star quarterback available by the March 17 start to the league year, the Dolphins are going to make a call to see if they can be part of that derby.
Indeed, Miami has every advantage short of the No. 1 overall selection to make a trade happen. But such a trade comes with, shall we say, byproducts.
And the first of those is the Dolphins suddenly wouldn’t have that big potato sack loaded with draft picks to use on its slow and safe rebuild. Most of the remaining premium picks in that sack would be going to the Texans.
The Dolphins, still an incomplete team even with Watson, would then have to restructure multiple contracts and possibly even cut some players to create salary cap space. As previously reported, that approach could add $28 million in cap space this year.
And that cap space boon could help the team surround Watson with a couple of excellent receivers while also addressing some holes in the defense — a pass rusher is always good — and helping Miami keep cornerback Xavien Howard happy with a salary bump, which he really, really wants.
The truth is ludicrous speed could be used even if a Watson deal isn’t done.
If the Dolphins believe in Tua Tagovailoa in the unconditional manner they insist they do, they could bypass a Watson trade, and instead use all their draft resources to add the best available talent. They could also still create cap room through restructures and add one or two big (really big) stars to the roster.
Yeah, if this is done right the Dolphins would be loaded with young talent, have maybe half a dozen veterans who are prized by other NFL teams and still have their starting quarterback on his rookie contract.
This obviously assumes Tagovailoa develops into a full-blown elite quarterback to help all the new, shiny talent around him play at its highest level.
But there is also a downside to ludicrous speed: Either the Dolphins fail to land Watson or Tagovailoa doesn’t play to that elite level and the whole thing collapses. Ludicrous speed needs a great quarterback or it’s merely ludicrous.
The beauty of both slow and safe and ludicrous speed? We’re going to know pretty quickly which way Miami is going.
If the Dolphins are going to try to trade for Watson, they’re going to have to make roster and contract adjustments.
If the Dolphins are going to load up in free agency anywhere close to last season, they’re going to have to make contract adjustments beforehand.
If the Dolphins are going to take it slow and safe by not trading for Watson, and not loading up on great veterans around Tagovailoa, the relative quiet around them will be deafening.
No trade talks. No contract restructures. No star free agent chases.
Just kind of slow and safe.
This story was originally published February 23, 2021 at 8:00 PM.
