Dolphins extension talks with Ogbah, Baker, Gesicki, Smythe going to be interesting
One lesson the Miami Dolphins should understand — and if they don’t, this offseason will teach them -- is that players root for other players to get paid. And when those others get paid, all players pay attention.
Because, ultimately, they know it affects them.
We saw this when the Dolphins made Byron Jones the NFL’s highest-paid cornerback at $16.5 million a year. That lofty status was fleeting because other contracts, many looking at the Jones deal, eventually came in higher.
But Miami cornerback Xavien Howard noticed.
He noticed Jones was suddenly getting more than him. He noticed his statistics were better than Jones. He noticed enough that this offseason he’s going to request the team redo his contract, even though it has four years remaining, to surpass Jones and the others.
This fallout reaction should not have surprised the Dolphins because it’s human nature. It’s business.
But if the Dolphins were surprised, they better know they’re about to face more of the same.
Because on Tuesday the team locked up kicker Jason Sanders to a five-year extension a full one year before he was scheduled to hit free agency.
And now other players one year out of free agency, three of whom came to Miami in the same draft as Sanders, noticed their draft classmate’s new deal and also want or expect extensions talks this offseason.
For the record, doing extensions for good players who are in the team’s plans is good business. It makes sense to secure good players now rather than later when the club is certain — and I do stress absolutely certain — the players will remain in future plans.
So the Dolphins obviously are already looking at the status of tight ends Mike Gesicki and Durham Smythe, and linebacker Jerome Baker. They came into the league along with Sanders in 2018 and have produced at a level and conducted themselves in a way that suggest extension talks are warranted.
Defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah, who signed a two-year deal with the Dolphins in 2020, also is scheduled to enter the final year of the deal and he also would be a candidate to seek and receive an extension this offseason before he hits free agency in 2023.
And, again, the Dolphins extended Sanders. So the agents for these other players are now expecting similar talks for their clients.
So what’s at stake? And what might each of those players legitimately deserve and get if Miami engages as it did with Sanders?
First, the Dolphins are going to engage only if they can get a team friendly-ish deal. The point of doing these deals early is to get the player more money but also to get the team something of a bargain because salaries for good players usually go up.
So a look at each player ...
▪ Emmanuel Ogbah: He signed a two-year deal worth $15 million last season. And he led the club in sacks with 9, quarterback hurries with 21 and forced fumbles with 3. It was a career year for Ogbah, helped no doubt by the manner in which defensive coordinator Josh Boyer used him.
So it makes sense for Ogbah to want to stay and it makes sense for the Dolphins to explore keeping him past this coming season because he’s only 27 years old.
It’s obvious Ogbah was superior to Shaq Lawson, who got a three-year, $30 million deal. That suggests the floor for Ogbah is that $10 million per season deal, which is a raise from his $7.5 million per season deal.
But he’s going to want more.
Ogbah is currently the NFL’s 40th-highest paid edge rusher. And yet he was tied for 14th in sacks last season.
Adjusted for the fact it was a one-year jump in his typical previous statistics, my estimation is he will offer up someone such as Arik Armstead, who signed a five-year, $85 million deal with San Francisco last season, and say that’s where he should slot.
So an Ogbah extension could be between $10 million to $17 million per year.
And, yes, this is a wide gap. All of these deals will have a gap at the start. That’s the reason negotiation is required.
▪ Mike Gesicki: He’s an improving player who was fourth among NFL tight ends with 53 catches in 2020. Gesicki led the team with six touchdown catches and was second with 703 yards.
No, still not a great blocker thus not fully a complete tight end. But his “camp” will likely make the point that he is a red zone threat, a great target for a young quarterback at 6-foot-6, and it makes sense not to have to start over at the tight end position after Miami invested a second-round pick in 2017.
Gesicki, making $1.65 million on an annual average from his rookie deal, is going to fly right past the deal Adam Shaheen signed with the team last year. That deal pays Shaheen $2.425 million per season.
My guess is his camp will come with comparisons to Cameron Brate, Jack Doyle, Jimmy Graham (present deal not 2018), Greg Olsen, and possibly even Zach Ertz.
Ertz seems to be the ceiling, as he signed a five-year, $42.5 million extension in 2016 that has held up pretty well. Ertz was the seventh-highest-paid tight end last season on an annual average.
I suppose the Dolphins will look at the four-year, $22.6 million deal Jesse James signed with Detroit in 2019 and hope to start there.
Gesicki’s representation might want to see what happens with Chargers tight end Hunter Henry’s deal this offseason, but otherwise the relative range will be between Ertz and James, between $8.5 million to $5.6 million per season.
▪ Durham Smythe: Miami’s “blocking tight end” last season doubled his catches from his previous two seasons —- going from 13 in his first 31 games to 26 in last year’s 15 games.
That’s good!
So Smythe is going to look at Shaheen’s two-year extension and expect better than the $2.4 million per season his teammate got.
The Dolphins might be of the mind to offer the same deal.
Then the negotiations can begin.
▪ Jerome Baker: He led the team with 111 tackles, was second with seven sacks, tied for third with 11 quarterback hurries and forced two fumbles.
And he’s ascending.
“There really isn’t one part of his game that he hasn’t improved upon,” linebackers coach Anthony Campanile said during the season. “The run game, the pass game, as a pass rusher, he’s had some success doing all of the things we’ve asked him to do. He has a really good feel for what the opponent is trying to do and who the personnel is. He’s a great guy to coach, and I think he’s progressed in a lot of ways.”
The Dolphins should expect to hear the words of their assistant — their own words, in effect — in a looming negotiation. Because how do you counter what your own team said?
This one might be the toughest of all the negotiations because last year the Houston Texans (that team, again) signed linebacker Zach Cunningham to a four-year, $58 million extension after picking him in the second round of the 2017 Draft.
And Baker, picked in the 2018 third round, has posted numbers right up there with Cunningham.
Cunningham last year had seven tackles for loss. So did Baker.
Cunningham had three sacks and four quarterback hits. Baker had seven sacks and 11 quarterback hits.
Cunningham had more tackles, with 164 to Baker’s 111. But, how much of that was a product of the Texans defense being on the field for 1,068 plays to Miami’s 998?
So these guys seem comparable. The issue is Cunningham is the league’s third-highest paid non-edge linebacker. He’s averaging $14.5 million per season.
The Dolphins last year paid edge linebacker Kyle Van Noy an average of $12.75 million per season.
It’s going to be interesting to see if the team is willing to extend past that height for a more productive player.
