Analysis: Dolphins will show what they really think of Tua Tagovailoa very soon
Bill Parcells, the master of keeping club business unseen behind club walls, used to famously admit that “eventually you have to turn over your cards.”
So the man who taught Bill Belichick, who then taught Brian Flores how to keep things away from the prying eyes of outsiders, understood that how a team really feels about a player ultimately becomes obvious for all to see as games and seasons thrust private opinions into the open.
And soon -- perhaps as soon as this weekend -- we’re all going to start seeing what the Miami Dolphins really think of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
Because Tagovailoa is the presumed starter against the Buffalo Bills Sunday in a regular-season-finale that will help determine if the Dolphins qualify for the playoffs.
But even as we expect Tagovailoa will start, the question hangs out there as if off a high ledge, will he be allowed to finish?
And if not, will Flores wait until the fourth quarter as he has twice already or will the game’s high importance bring out a quick hook if the offense struggles early?
And even if the Dolphins somehow win a tight, defensive battle, would Tagovailoa still be the starter in the following playoff game or games?
All these cards are going to be turned over in the next few days and weeks. But go further.
Because free agency is coming in March or April followed by the draft.
So will the Dolphins re-sign Ryan Fitzpatrick to continue being the offense’s security blanket in case Tagovailoa struggles in 2021? Or will the team show confidence Tagovailoa is perfectly able to handle the quarterback job without the team’s former starter looming?
Will the Dolphins use their high draft picks to surround Tagovailoa with more talent to increase his chances of success? Or will Miami consider selecting a quarterback with the No. 3 overall selection in the first round of the next draft, as former executive vice president of football operations Mike Tannenbaum said they would on ESPN this week?
“If Justin Fields plays great over the next couple of weeks, he’ll be in the conversation both in Miami and at the Jets,” Tannenbaum said.
We’ll have telling answers soon. The cards will soon be turned over on what until now has been an interesting quarterback dynamic for the Dolphins -- one in which they insist it’s Tagovailoa’s team, except sometimes in the fourth quarter of tight games when it suddenly becomes Fitzpatrick’s team.
And there are any number of ways what we’re about to witness could go. So let’s address those, starting with the best-case scenario.
The best-case scenario is that Miami travels to play the Bills and simply stampedes Buffalo. We see Tagovailoa play up to the standard of a No. 5 overall selection. And there’s no need for Fitzpatrick to stir from the frozen Dolphins bench in the fourth quarter or any other quarter for that matter.
That would be every Dolphins fan’s dream scenario.
But back here on planet Earth, the Dolphins must plan for the reality that something else might happen. So Flores has repeatedly given himself the option of making a quarterback change if he deems it’s best for the team.
And the coach has done this with little worry or regard for how outsiders (who don’t get to immediately see the team’s cards) speculate the move affects the team’s culture or locker room.
Flores also doesn’t think such repeated benchings much affect Tagovailoa’s mindset now or in the future.
“I think the objective is always to win and to win every game,” Flores said Wednesday. “I think as far as looking into the future, I really leave that to (general manager) Chris Grier and the personnel staff. With the players we have, we just try to develop the young ones, develop the veterans, try to improve and get better on a daily basis, and we try to play our best players.
“So if that happens to be a rookie, then it’s a rookie. If it’s not, then it’s not. But we’re trying to develop everybody.”
When Flores spoke with western New York reporters this week he compared what the Dolphins are doing throughout their roster, including at quarterback, to what the Bills did in building a team that has won the AFC East this season.
But there’s a big difference.
When the Bills selected quarterback Josh Allen in the first round of the 2018 draft, they made sure it was an Allen-or-bust exercise. They sold out and traded incumbent starter Tyrod Taylor, who had led them to the playoffs the year before, so they could upgrade to Allen.
So the Bills made certain Taylor could not cast a shadow on Allen.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, drafted Tagovailoa but held on to Fitzpatrick, their 2019 starter. Fitzpatrick could then compete with Tagovailoa in training camp, be the starter early this season, and now be Tagovailoa’s replacement whenever he struggles.
It’s a vastly different approach than the Bills or a lot of teams take. And it’s one Tagovailoa has no choice but to paint with public acceptance.
“I think there just needs to be understanding, like situational understanding, what we’re trying to get done as a team,” Tagovailoa said. “And then just from that perspective, you’ve just got to get out of yourself and into the team and see it from that perspective instead of yourself.
“... It’s all about what you can gain from everything. For me, it’s a learning experience. And like I said, in all of the previous interviews that I’ve had, it’s not like a one-and-done thing. It’s continuous, especially in your rookie year.”
So getting benched makes sense to Tagovailoa, as he said, because he’s a rookie and he’s learning.
But it would make zero sense next year in Year 2 when Tagovailoa needs an opportunity to be the offense’s unquestioned leader and, indeed, be the face of the franchise if possible.
And that raises questions about Fitzpatrick’s future with the team.
Fitzpatrick, 38, is unsigned for next season. He believes he’s playing the best football of his career and he wants to continue doing that.
So do the Dolphins try to re-sign him? The club has not said.
“They’d be crazy to do that,” one current NFL general manager said this week. “Why would you do that and torture the kid you just drafted to be your franchise quarterback? Do they want to ruin Tua?
“Ryan is a great guy and all, but at some point you have to cut the cord from a progress stopper. And that’s what Ryan is to Tua.”
Flores doesn’t share that opinion publicly. Quite the contrary, actually.
“First and foremost, Fitz is as competitive as anyone in this league,” Flores said, “but he’s also selfless and humble and he’s been a great mentor to Tua and a lot of our young players. This is a very young team. We’re fortunate to have him.
“I can’t speak to what it would be in another situation. I know in this one, everyone on this team wants to just do what they can to help us win ballgames and when asked, Fitz stepped in last week and has done so also in the Denver game.
“We just ask them to do their best and try to help this team win and he’s done that and he’s been selfless and he’s team-first, and those are the types of guys we’re trying to bring in here.”
The Dolphins will decide about Fitzpatrick once this season ends. And then they’ll have to turn over their cards on exactly what they really think of him and the dynamic he carries behind Tagovailoa.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers similarly turned over their cards on Fitzpatrick in 2019. And they decided he needed to go.
Fitzpatrick was unsigned after performing well enough that the coaching staff played him in favor of first-round draft pick Jameis Winston in 2018. Fitzpatrick talked of how he loved Winston and wanted the best for Winston.
But he savored every opportunity to replace Winston on the field.
New coach Bruce Arians called the situation a “Russian roulette wheel at quarterback.” He also said Winston could not possibly learn anything from watching Fitzpatrick play.
“I think it all depends on his health; if he’s healthy, I’m playing him,” Arians said of Winston on 100.9-FM in Alabama.
“I don’t think you learn anything holding a clipboard. You know, I had Peyton Manning his first year, Andrew Luck his first year, Ben (Roethlisberger) was one of those guys that went in by accident because Tommy Maddox got hurt. You miss all the practice reps, you miss the game reps. I don’t know what you learn holding a clipboard watching.”
It should be noted there’s no consensus on this topic. One former NFL general manager told the Herald this week he would absolutely try to re-sign Fitzpatrick if he was running the Dolphins.
Why?
“You have to think of the entire team, not just one player,” he said. “What if Tua doesn’t get better? You need someone who can play ....”
That also raises the possibility the Dolphins might be looking at a quarterback in the next draft.
The Dolphins own the No. 3 overall pick in the 2021 draft and assuming the Jacksonville Jaguars draft Trevor Lawrence No. 1 and the New York Jets either stay with Sam Darnold or pick a quarterback at No. 2, that will leave the Dolphins to consider at least one and possibly two first-round-caliber quarterbacks among their many other options.
Ohio State’s Justin Fields and Brigham Young’s Zach Wilson are the two quarterbacks.
And why might the Dolphins treat drafting another quarterback in the first round one year after draft Tagovailoa in the first round as a serious consideration when Flores dismissed an ESPN report a few weeks ago that suggested that very thing?
Well, it would not be a consideration if Tagovailoa plays great against the Bills. It would not be a consideration if Tagovailoa plays great in a playoff game.
But if he doesn’t, doing their draft quarterback homework would not only be wise for the Dolphins it would be mandatory to give them a complete understanding of their options.
So there’s urgency for Tagovailoa to perform well Sunday for himself as well as for the team -- even if the rookie doesn’t think so.
“I’d say for me, there’s really no extra added pressure for me,” he said. “I would say the expectation for myself is very high in how I perform and how I go out there and try to lead the guys to victory.
“Obviously this past weekend, I didn’t play to that standard. It’s more so me knowing that we’ve got to go out there and got to get the job done. If you can’t get the job done, then that’s on you. That’s on no one else.”
This story was originally published December 30, 2020 at 7:55 PM.
