The NFL season kicks off Thursday. Here’s why the Miami Dolphins will be paying close attention
The NFL season begins Thursday night for the Miami Dolphins.
You think that’s a misprint because everyone knows the Dolphins open their season on Sunday at New England against the AFC division rival Patriots. And that’s certainly true.
But for the Dolphins organization, admit it or not, their likelihood of future success in the years to come is going to begin playing out Thursday night when the Houston Texans visit the Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL opener.
How is that?
Well, think back to last year and the Laremy Tunsil trade to the Texans. They gave up two first-round picks and a second-round pick to the Dolphins in that exchange that involved other picks and players.
The Dolphins got Houston’s first- and second-rounder in 2021, so what the Texans do this season, starting Thursday night, matters to the Dolphins. And so it should matter to you.
If Houston is good, those two premium picks will come lower on the draft board. And if Houston is not so good, the picks will come higher.
And if you consider Houston’s schedule, particularly early in the season, the chances of them being the latter rather than the former are considerable.
Consider:
The Texans open at the defending Super Bowl champions.
And then they play the Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Minnesota Vikings, Tennessee Titans and Green Bay Packers in five of their next six games. Five of Houston’s first seven opponents made the playoffs last season. Four won 10 games or more.
Two words for you Dolphins draft nuts: Cha-Ching!
It should be a duty of every Miami Dolphins fan to pay attention to the Texans’ results in 2020. Because their results will impact the quality of those signature early 2021 picks.
And this is where I tell you those picks might or might not turn out great. We all know this. As Dolphins coach Brian Flores said this week after the Dolphins invested second- and fifth-round picks on Josh Rosen only to cut him after one unspectacular season:
“Look, you don’t hit on every play, on every trade, on every draft pick,” Flores said. “Show me a team that’s hit on every one and I’ll applaud that team. So I’m not saying that there’s any regrets.”
No team hits on everyone. But good teams hit way more often than they miss.
And if a team is going to make trades like the Tunsil trade — where a known quality player is exchanged for an unknown draft pick — there has to be trust there will be a net plus when all is said and done.
The trade the Texans and Dolphins made will be talked about for years.
(I’ll make sure of that).
But we have no idea yet how it’s going to turn out.
So far?
Too early to tell.
The Texans got themselves a Pro Bowl left tackle in the exchange. Advantage Houston.
They now are going to pay Tunsil an average of $22 million per season from 2020-23. Advantage Tunsil and not necessarily Houston.
The Dolphins got the 26th overall selection in the 2020 first round in the trade. They traded that pick to Green Bay for the 30th overall selection and a fourth-round pick, which was No. 136th overall.
With the 30th overall selection the Dolphins selected cornerback Noah Igbinoghene. It is impossible to know with certainty what kind of player Igbinoghene is going to be in the NFL at this point.
The Dolphins traded the fourth-round pick (No. 136 overall) and another fourth-round pick (141st overall) to Houston for the Texans’ fourth-rounder (111th overall).
And with that new fourth-rounder the Dolphins selected Solomon Kindley. And Kindley is starting at right guard now but, again, it’s impossible to predict what he’s going to do the next few years.
So on its face, the Dolphins so far have traded left tackle Laremy Tunsil and other considerations (including receiver Kenny Stills) to Houston for cornerback Noah Igbinoghene, guard Solomon Kindley, a first-round pick in 2021 and a second-round pick in 2021.
It’s fair to say the Texans got an early advantage on the trade because Tunsil balled for them last year, taking on rushers one-on-one and making the Pro Bowl while doing it. But it’s also fair to say the Dolphins already have two good prospects in the exchange and the chance to add two more if they don’t trade those picks.
We are nowhere near being able to tell who has won this trade.
Same with the Kenyan Drake trade. The Dolphins traded Drake (last year’s coaching staff didn’t love him) for a fifth-round pick and then sent that pick to San Francisco for Matt Breida. Breida is costing the Dolphins $3.26 million this year and is unsigned for next year. Drake is playing on an $8.5 million transition tag this year and is unsigned after that.
Both are explosive running backs. We’ll see how it works out this year.
The Kiko Alonso for Vince Biegel trade? A push so far.
Both contributed some to their teams last season. Alonso tore an ACL in January and is now on the physically unable to perform list for at least six more weeks. Biegel tore his Achilles tendon during Miami’s training camp and is out for the season.
Some trades, meanwhile, are not looking too good right now.
The Dolphins effectively traded Ryan Tannehill and Minkah Fitzpatrick for left tackle Austin Jackson and defensive end Jason Strowbridge.
And it’s fair to say neither Jackson, who is already a starter, nor Strowbridge, a backup defensive end, have even played an NFL down. But the fact is Fitzpatrick became an All-Pro last year in his second season and Tannehill helped the Tennessee Titans reach the AFC Championship Game.
Jackson and Strowbridge have to become very good, very quickly to make this exchange seem like a net plus for the Dolphins.
A couple more?
The Dolphins basically traded Robert Quinn for offensive lineman Evan Boehm, Aqib Talib and Curtis Weaver.
Quinn collected 11.5 sacks for Dallas last season and has moved on to Chicago.
Boehm started eight games for the Dolphins last year and is now on the Buffalo Bills practice squad. Talib never set foot inside the Dolphins practice facility that I know of and retired Wednesday. And Weaver was cut after only a few padded practices with the Dolphins and is now on Cleveland’s injured reserve list.
That deal alone involved four exchanges with Philadelphia, Los Angeles, Dallas and Indianapolis. And Miami has nothing to show for it right now.
But those picks from Houston are coming next draft. Tune in starting Thursday night.
This story was originally published September 9, 2020 at 10:34 PM.
