Miami Dolphins regular-season strengths and weaknesses and a 2020 record prediction
Stop the losing, Miami Dolphins.
That’s the big ask from this space for 2020. This year, unlike most years the past decade, stop coming up short or getting close but not quite over the top.
Don’t lose more than you win during this season. Get back to respectability.
The Dolphins are mere days from opening a new season and everyone understands this team, improved and upgraded and in a much better place than it was one year ago, is still a work in progress.
This team still has flaws that might be exposed quite quickly.
It is counting on big plays from some folks that I fear aren’t likely to deliver them.
And there will be some inconsistencies most NFL teams, including the Dolphins, might struggle with for at least part of the season.
But amid all that, and perhaps despite all that, the request is please overcome. Rise above. Let the good be at least every bit as compelling as the bad. Let the pleasant surprises number as high as whatever disappointments we’re about to endure.
So, yes, stop losing.
The Dolphins have been losing for a while now.
The club has had three consecutive losing seasons. If that doesn’t sound bad to you, you’re youth is betraying you. Because Don Shula had only two losing seasons in 26 seasons with the franchise.
But these latter day Dolphins have had eight losing seasons in the last 11 years and only one of those three non-losing seasons was, you know, a winning season -- that coming in 2016 during Adam Gase’s first year as coach.
So perhaps it doesn’t sound like I’m asking a lot for this year’s Dolphins to win at least as often as they lose. Perhaps asking for an 8-8 record doesn’t move you to any great degree.
But I’d take it.
It would be improvement. It would be some movement in the right direction. So, yes, a .500 record after the season-finale on Jan. 3, 2021 would seem like an accomplishment in my mind.
And that leads us to this: Can the Dolphins get there?
You betcha!
In fact, I think 8-8 is Miami’s sweet spot. Anything more would be a fine accomplishment. Anything less would be a disappointment.
And I know your complaint is going to be that 8-8 is merely mediocre. That’s true.
But, again, I remind you the Dolphins have been looking up at mediocrity the past three years. So reaching that plateau feels like a step in the right direction.
Notice I said a step in the right direction. The Dolphins have been at 8-8 before but that became the destination rather than a layover. This year needs to be a layover en route to something much, much better in the coming years.
So the Dolphins cannot find themselves in the muck of 5-11 or 6-10 again or all the work they did in the offseason, signing expensive free agents and drafting 11 rookies, will be fruitless. Nobody is demanding this team compete for any championship but it is wholly fair to expect a solid team deliver a solid year.
So are the Dolphins, as currently built, at least a .500 team? Or are they something else, either not quite that or far better than that?
It’s hard to say because this club has some strengths.
And it has some weaknesses.
The strengths first, right? Because we’re a good-news space for Dolphins information:
That’s a lot of experience on the defensive line. The Dolphins boast four good linemen that have significant experience and have had NFL success. One of those, 2019 first-round pick Christian Wilkins, is still learning but he may be rising above just OK.
And Miami has three players coaches believe have good potential as backups in Raekwon Davis, Jason Strowbridge and Zach Sieler.
Are any of these linemen Aaron Donald?
No.
But it’ll be unlikely to see the Dolphins ranked 27th in the NFL against the run as they were last year.
And, yes, run defense has to do with linebacker run fits and all that football jargon. But the Dolphins did work to improve their linebacker corps this year with Kyle Van Noy, Kamu Grugier-Hill and Elandon Roberts.
So while depth at linebacker gives some pause, there is greater talent at the position.
The Dolphins were dead last in sacks last season. And they didn’t exactly find Bruce Smith or Reggie White in the offseason. So rather than a lot of sacks from one guy this club will probably get a few sacks from several guys.
They might get six from Van Noy. Maybe 4-to-5 from Shaq Lawson. Maybe five from Emmanual Ogbah. And someone else unexpected is going to have to factor.
The secondary is considered a strength for this team, with cornerbacks Byron Jones and Xavien Howard laying claim to being among the best outside coverage duos in the NFL.
Well, great. Prove it.
Because the Bills have good cornerbacks. And the Patriots have really good cornerbacks. So the Dolphins need to work to be the best cornerback duo in their own division before thinking of the entire NFL.
To do that, Howard needs to stay healthy. The Dolphins are hopeful he’ll be available for the season-opener at New England, but he needs to return to 2017 health (16 starts) and 2018 form (seven interceptions).
Jones is different in that his durability has not been the issue. His ball skills have been.
He’s always around the football. His coverage is often impeccable. But somehow, receivers too often make catches on him. Or he misses chances to make plays on the ball.
The Dolphins can’t have that from Jones and claim to have the best corner duo in the NFL.
The offense is going to be better in 2020 in that it will be more balanced.
New offensive coordinator Chan Gailey understands his running game will set up the passing game and not the other way around. He’s got an explosive back in Matt Brieda and a powerful back in Jordan Howard.
The Dolphins will run the football better than they did last year when they were last in the NFL, averaging only 72.3 yards per game.
A reason the running game is likely to be better is because the offensive line will be better in its run blocking. This starting line of left tackle Austin Jackson, left guard Ereck Flowers, center Ted Karras, right guard Solomon Kindley and right tackle Jesse Davis weighs a collective 1,631 pounds.
The average size of the Dolphins offensive lineman is 6-foot-5 and 326 pounds.
That is easily the largest Miami Dolphins offensive line in recent memory.
Notice I said this unit will run block well.
Also notice I said nothing about pass blocking. That’s going to require some honing. And it might be ugly at times.
No worries, quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick will figure it out. He was sacked 40 times in 2019.
You want to know about the receivers? It’s a solid group. Durability is a concern. Even as the Dolphins are optimistic DeVante Parker and Jakeem Grant will play in the season-opener, they’ve both been nursing some unknown minor issues.
I really like Isaiah Ford as the slot and think Gailey will find a package for rookie Malcolm Perry by season’s end that will have him contributing somehow. The former Navy quarterback has impressed coaches in multiples ways so don’t forget about him.
Last year, the Dolphins were overmatched and they knew it. So the coaching staff tried to balance the scales with special teams work.
Miami used the onside kicks multiple times -- albeit usually to no good effect. The Dolphins tried gadgets like that pass from punter Matt Haack to kicker Jason Sanders out of a fake field goal and that went for a touchdown.
Coaches were trying to steal possessions away from opponents and occasionally shift the momentum of games to their side. The Dolphins have better players this year and may find themselves in closer games.
So coaches may be tempted to play it safer.
Don’t do it, fellas.
Don’t play it safe. Be aggressive. Because you really look like nothing more than a .500 team. And maybe if you steal a game, you might get in the playoffs.
My new book, 100 Things Dolphins Fans Should Know and Do Before They Die comes out Tuesday! It’s 100 chapters of Dolphins history with a foreword by Hall of Famer Jason Taylor: Please get it here.
This story was originally published September 7, 2020 at 9:47 PM.
