These metrics will signal early direction for Dolphins’ first- and second-round picks
Let’s fast forward to 2021.
Wait, too far. Rewind.
Let’s instead go to December of this year.
I have no idea what the Miami Dolphins have accomplished on the field during their latest season by late December 2020. Yes, it should be a significant improvement over the previous season’s 5-11. But that isn’t the point here.
The point is I want to know who’s on the field.
I want to know who’s starting. And who’s contributing with significant playing time. I want to know who’s in and who’s out.
Because that’s going to be the first sign of how successful — or not — the draft we just saw general manager Chris Grier and coach Brian Flores crafted will be.
As you may recall, I don’t expect the players in the first round of this draft class to be plug-and-play guys. And if the first-round guys aren’t, it’s hard to expect latter round guys to walk through the doors and be handed a starting job.
(Except long snapper Blake Ferguson, who was drafted in the sixth round Saturday and less than 24 hours later his only competitor for the long snapper job, Taybor Pepper, was cut.)
Throughout this draft, the one thing you hear about these players that I haven’t often heard about Dolphins draft picks in the past, at least not the early-round guys, is they’re going to need some time.
Even quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, the No. 5 overall selection, might need some time.
When asked about what guys he projects starting or not, Flores pulled back the reins on that talk by saying, “We have a long way to go before we can say who’s doing what.”
So that works in April.
But July and August are coming folks, training camp will happen eventually. And my guess is at some point competitors are going to compete. They can’t help themselves, especially since the coach is competitive and he asked the general manager to draft competitors.
“We want guys who compete,” Flores said. “I think that’s going to — we’re trying to create a competitive environment and get as many guys in here to compete. We feel like when there’s competition, people get better.
“It really doesn’t matter what area of life it is. When there’s a little bit of competition, guys reach their maximum potential. These are competitive guys. That’s part of the criteria Chris just talked about. Hopefully we can get them here and get started pretty soon.”
So let’s start ... now.
Where are the competitions brewing? Where might you want to forget about competition right away? And where are the competitions going to be in December?
Let’s examine:
Quarterback: The Dolphins drafted Tagvovailoa. And the expectation here is on interesting parallel tracks. On the one hand, Tagovailoa, who is six months on from surgery to repair a fractured hip, is going into this thing saying he’s ready to play in 2020. But he’s also saying he understands if he doesn’t.
“As far as rehab, as far as the medical rechecks, I’ve checked off all the boxes, so that’s what I’ve been really standing on and that’s kind of what I’ve been going with,” Tagovailoa said. “That’s why I would say I’ve been really encouraged to say that I’m able to play if need be; but I think the biggest thing for me right now is just being able to take it in, soak it in, enjoy it with my family and get to work.”
And so what situation is Tua stepping into? Well, Ryan Fitzpatrick started last year. And he’s a Flores favorite.
And Chan Gailey is the new offensive coordinator. And Fitzpatrick has been Gailey’s starter in both Buffalo and with the New York Jets before. He knows Gailey’s offense forwards and backwards and whatever is new he’ll quickly learn.
Fitzpatrick also has an experience advantage on everyone.
So even if the competition gene goes off among Flores, Gailey, Tua and Fitzpatrick, it’s going to be hard for the rookie to displace the 37-year-old veteran to start the season.
But remember, it’s not about the start of the season. And it’s not just a competition to start.
The question is can Tagovailoa advance far enough and quickly enough to earn starts in December? Remember that even Patrick Mahomes started only one game as a rookie, that coming in December 2017. And he’s the NFL’s best quarterback right now.
So can Tagovailoa follow that path and beat out a career journeyman by late in the 2020 season, assuming the Dolphins aren’t on the brink of a playoff run?
It will be telling if Tagovailoa can do that.
It would suggest good things are on the way in the future.
But it’s not just about competing for the starting job. Tagovailoa is Miami’s third-team quarterback right now. Yes, Jake Rudock would argue Tua is fourth-team, but I’m going out on a limb here and saying he’s third string.
Can Tagovailoa beat out Josh Rosen for the backup job?
Rosen has not had a stellar beginning to his NFL career after being the No. 10 overall pick in the 2018 draft. Last year, he failed to beat out that journeyman guy I mentioned before. And the Dolphins went and drafted a young QB No. 1 as a result.
One would assume Tagovailoa, if healthy, should be able to catch and pass Rosen. Both, after all, will be learning a new offense. Both are young guys -- Tua is 22 and Josh is 23. So it should be on between them.
I have no expectation that Tagovailoa will be the starter in the season opener. But the backup? That’s not a lot to ask a No. 5 overall selection if he’s healthy.
Left tackle: We knew the Dolphins had to draft one.
So Austin Jackson comes to Miami as the No. 18 overall selection in the first round. Again, this player must become an eventual starter for the Dolphins. That’s what No. 18 picks have to be.
But immediately?
That’s going to be fascinating. Because presumptive starting left tackle Julie’n Davenport, 25, has three seasons and 27 starts of experience on the rookie.
Now, Jackson is a first-round pick out of USC and Davenport was a fourth-round pick out of Bucknell so there should be a fundamental disparity in each player’s ceiling. But the question is how long Jackson will take to reach Davenport’s level on his way to his higher ceiling?
Perfect world? Jackson starts his first regular-season game. That would be amazing.
Richmond Webb started on the first day. Jake Long started on the first day. Wade Smith started on the first day. Laremy Tunsil could have started at left tackle his first day but did so at guard because Branden Albert was on the team.
A more likely scenario? Jackson and Davenport compete throughout camp and perhaps even into the regular season. And it sure would be nice if the rookie develops fast enough to have the starting job by year’s end.
Cornerback: Noah Igbignoghene was selected with the No. 30 overall pick in the first round late Thursday night. And he was training Friday morning.
Love it.
But, let’s be frank, he’s not starting ahead of either Byron Jones or Xavien Howard in 2020. Not happening if everyone is available. So I don’t measure his promise based on that.
I measure it based on whether he’s playing in nickel situations. Whether he’s won the slot cornerback spot. I also measure his promise based on whether he is returning punts or kicks because he simply cannot be kept off the field on special teams.
If those other things can happen early on, this guy is going to be special. If it can happen by the end of the season, it will still be impressive.
Right tackle: The Dolphins have a starting right tackle. Jesse Davis started 15 games for the Dolphins at that spot last season after starting 26 games at right guard the previous two years. So the competition starts in the big, beefy hands of Jesse Davis.
Enter second-round pick Robert Hunt. I am on record as saying I like this player.
It’s going to take him a minute to get his bearings in that he’s a rookie, rookies in 2020 are going to find it harder to break in right away because of the current rules, and he played at Louisiana which is fine but it’s not Louisiana State.
So I would assume Davis will press his experience advantage over Hunt through the early parts of training camp and even into the start of the regular season.
But, let’s be clear, the Dolphins drafted Robert Hunt to protect Tua Tagovailoa’s blind side. They chose him instead of using the pick to trade up for, say, D’Andre Swift, who was a stud in college and is probably going to be a stud in the NFL.
And so a couple of things must happen here: First, Hunt has to remain at right tackle. If at any point you see the team kick him over to guard as a permanent move, that’s a disappointment. That will mean the desire to upgrade at right tackle failed.
You also want Hunt to stay in the, I’m going to say it, hunt.
You want him to keep competing for that right tackle spot into the season. Just because the season starts doesn’t mean job competitions have to end -- at least not on winning teams.
So come December, if Hunt is starting at right tackle that will signal something truly special. If he doesn’t manage that but is still at tackle, that’s still promising.
But if Hunt’s moved to guard and he’s not playing?
Not an awesome start.
Nose tackle: Davon Godchaux logged a lot of snaps in 2019 -- 717 to be exact, which was 64 percent of Miami’s defensive snaps.
Too much.
Enter second-round pick Raekwon Davis, the Dolphins’ 56th overall selection and second pick of the second round. I’m not worried whether Davis starts or doesn’t start.
The metric here is snaps. He needs to be good enough, soon enough to log significant enough snaps to give Godchaux a breather. And the drop-off obviously cannot be significant at all.
Davis does that, he’s probably fulfilling part of the vision the Dolphins have for him. We can get around to getting more snaps than Godchaux later.
I’m not asking for much here so Davis, who played at Alabama, should be expected to deliver snaps as a rookie because he was a premium draft pick.
That’s it. And, yes, the Dolphins had five more picks in rounds 3-7, not counting Ferguson the long snapper. They must all be starters by December!
Nah, kidding. That’s not how it works, typically.
If any are playing important roles in 2020, that’s a big plus. If they’re not, well, we’re good. Concentrate on the guys picked in the first two rounds.
This story was originally published April 28, 2020 at 12:34 AM.
