Out-of-the-box draft strategy for an OT speaks volumes about what Dolphins think of QBs
If the rumors are true — and that comes with a big “if” because the Miami Dolphins are definitely not spilling their guts about their looming draft plans to the media — then here’s somebody’s grand idea of winning a championship:
The Dolphins trade Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil, All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, a second-round pick in 2020, a fourth-round pick in 2020, a sixth-round pick in 2021 and starting receiver Kenny Stills.
And the return for that is the No. 3 overall pick in the 2020 draft, a 2021 first-round pick, a 2021 second-round pick and Julien Davenport.
That’s the proposed deal my national media brethren are floating/reporting the Dolphins are considering as a way to put together their championship team of the future.
To be clear, that’s not really the actual deal because the actual deal gives away first-round draft picks instead of the Pro Bowl left tackle and All-Pro safety who were traded last September for those picks.
But the Dolphins would reportedly be trading the return from those trades on to Detroit.
And what I see here is a lot of activity.
But we’re a long way from a lot of achievement.
What I see is Dolphins general manager Chris Grier and coach Brian Flores convincing owner Stephen Ross that this is some awesome out-of-the-box stuff — which Ross loves, by the way — and it’s the way to construct a future champion.
I also see the Dolphins merely treading water.
Because the Dolphins must pick an All-Pro and a Pro Bowler from these three picks they’re getting this year to cancel out an All-Pro and a Pro Bowler they already gave up.
They’re giving up certainty for uncertainty.
For a promise.
For the prospect of upgrade even when the chances of just breaking even seem kind of long.
But, hey, instantly give Grier and Flores credit for one thing if they pull this off: It sounds sexy. It sounds like stuff is going on.
And the only way any of this actually works?
If the Dolphins find a great quarterback at No. 5 overall. Period.
This team that has failed to do good work in finding quarterbacks for 19 of the last 20 seasons (the Chad Pennington 2008 experience being the exception) now must get it done with that one draft pick that had nothing to do with trading Fitzpatrick or Tunsil or Stills.
Because at No. 5 is supposedly where the QB would be selected.
And this is where I get confused: Because even if the Dolphins land an all-timer at that No. 3 overall pick — no certainty when you consider the team traded up to No. 3 in 2013 and drafted Dion Jordan — that guy isn’t going to lead anyone to a Super Bowl if he’s not playing quarterback.
And apparently he’s not.
Did you know that part? Did you hear?
Because the national reports have the Dolphins trading away all these assets to go up to No. 3 and pick ... an offensive tackle.
Not a franchise QB.
A left tackle.
Now quick, tell me who played left tackle for the 2018 New England Patriots in the Super Bowl win over Los Angeles? Because that guy ultimately helped get Flores hired by the Dolphins.
Yeah, it was a gentleman named Trent Brown. He was drafted in the seventh round by the San Francisco 49ers in 2015 and traded to New England for a third-rounder in 2018.
The point is not to disparage Trent Brown in any way or dismiss the need for an outstanding left tackle. The point is one need not trade away multiple Pro Bowl players, including a Pro Bowl left tackle, to get a great left tackle prospect in return.
Can we agree on that?
The Dolphins, by the way, are not a left tackle away from winning it all.
They told you this last year when they traded Tunsil. They let him go because he was good and all the picks were more valuable to them. Except now they are, according to the reporting, putting a fistful of those same picks in the pot to fill the very position they purposefully emptied last year.
It’s fascinating to consider.
It’s fascinating to watch.
It is, by the way, also fascinating to watch a man on a tight rope 1,000 feet in the air with no netting beneath him.
And now for the important stuff:
While we are all mesmerized by the shiny object of a big draft night trade-up that involves multiple first-round picks in the one hand, the truly meaningful thing is in the other hand.
That other hand holds what the Dolphins are going to do with the quarterback position.
Nothing is more important. Nothing has more impact.
The Dolphins could pick Georgia offensive tackle Andrew Thomas with the No. 3 overall selection after that blockbuster trade everyone is talking about. And Thomas, who I believe is a top-five prospect all day long, could produce a Hall of Fame career.
And if the QB picked at No. 5 is not great, it will all be moot.
Andrew Thomas would be the new Joe Thomas. (Cleveland, look him up.)
None of this potential draft-day trading resolves the quarterback issue. In fact, it would create greater reason to doubt the quarterback issue will get resolved.
Why?
Because if the Dolphins are giving up multiple first-round picks that they got by yielding multiple Pro Bowl players, for a pick they don’ t use on a quarterback, that speaks to what they think of the quarterbacks on their draft board.
It tells you the truth about their board, which would be they have offensive linemen rated higher than all the quarterbacks in the draft not named Joe Burrow.
The not-for-a-QB trade-up screams how uncertain the Dolphins would be about their choices of QBs in the draft. It says, “We’re not sure about Justin Herbert.” It says, “We’re not sure about Tua Tagovailoa.”
It says, “We’re hedging our bet on blowing the QB pick by moving heaven and earth to get a great offensive tackle first.”
That is the truth of such a draft strategy. And it’s fascinating.
Get on that tightrope Chris Grier and Brian Flores.
This story was originally published April 22, 2020 at 7:43 PM.
