What Fake GM Mando would do about Justin Herbert or Tua Tagovailoa quarterback choice
Justin Herbert versus Tua Tagovailoa. We all know that’s the choice.
That’s the decision Miami Dolphins general manager Chris Grier and head coach Brian Flores seemingly have to make — and have already largely made, by some clues I’m getting — as they set the franchise’s course during the next decade.
And while Dolphins fans have flocked to respective opposite corners, with most wanting Tua and a smaller number certain Herbert is the right pick, I keep quizzing myself on which I would pick.
So now imagine you’re looking live at a shot of Fake GM Mando on the floor, curled up in the fetal position, weeping, because he doesn’t want to pick either of these two guys with the No. 5 overall pick.
Fake GM Mando has decided he dislikes both options, and he has been sad for days because of that, even though he doesn’t have to shoulder the actual burden of making this pick in real life.
So I can only imagine how Grier and Flores are feeling these days because they must do this. It’s their job, their responsibility, to come up with the right answer to a question that might just be unsolvable.
Because it’s entirely possible neither Herbert nor Tagovailoa will ever develop into NFL championship quarterbacks.
There, I said it.
Tua Tagovailoa to the Miami Dolphins at No. 5? No thanks.
Justin Herbert to the Miami Dolphins at No. 5? No thanks.
The top 5 picks of the NFL draft is where one finds Hall of Fame players. It’s where championship quarterbacks must be identified and selected. And I’m not certain these two are either of those things considering the cost.
So, that statement leads to some questions. Here they are:
Question No. 1: Why not?
Well, for vastly different reasons.
With Tagovailoa it’s about my obvious inability to predict the future. I apologize for having no clue about a tomorrow that will determine whether the smallish quarterback who was often hurt in college playing behind a stellar offensive line can stay healthy in the NFL playing behind a merely average offensive line.
I have no idea if the guy who didn’t attack the intermediate middle of the field because he sometimes struggled to see over the lines in college can live on slants and deep balls in the NFL while avoiding the seams.
I have no idea if Tagovailoa can can be Russell Wilson without his ability to escape the pass rush. Or be Drew Brees without his ability to read and anticipate from one sideline to the other.
So not Tua at No. 5.
And then, why not Herbert? Well, because I cannot get last year’s game against Arizona State out of my mind —the one in which the Oregon Ducks needed a big play from Herbert to pull out a close game that would have put his team in the national championship playoffs.
In that big moment, Herbert, who threw two touchdowns and two interceptions and missed key passes, was outplayed by a freshman quarterback who threw three touchdowns without an interception.
So big moment, but not a big response. And this wasn’t the only time I was bothered by Herbert not rising above the fray in a big moment.
I also cannot get over the idea of Herbert reminding me so much of Ryan Tannehill, from his leadership approach, which is not assertive, to his inconsistent accuracy issues. (Herbert is much better with his deep ball accuracy and Tannehill much better on the intermediate range pass accuracy).
Either way, not a total package at this point.
And this: Flores has said he wants a quarterback with an “it” factor. I cannot believe this is the “it” factor the coach was envisioning when he mentioned it.
So those are the reasons I would refuse to trade up or even pick either of these two young men at No. 5 overall. Which leads to the next question ...
If not them, who?
Well, I would use the No. 5 overall pick on the best player available. And to me that would be either Georgia left offensive tackle Andrew Thomas or Auburn defensive tackle Derrick Brown. Both are better prospects than Tagovailoa or Herbert.
Thomas plays a cornerstone position and is a certain first-day starter who will be in the Pro Bowl some day. He’s a leader. He’s smart. He’s mature. And his performance, regardless of what the social media draft gurus say, is that of a top-five pick all day long.
Brown is mature and brings something the Dolphins haven’t often gotten out of their interior defensive line in a long time, and that is consistent impact on the game. He doesn’t touch the football, but he has a rare size and athletic ability that makes him either too big or too quick for many blockers.
So you want my first choice pick at No. 5? Thomas.
And then Brown if Thomas is already gone.
That leads to the final question: What about the quarterback position?
Well, here’s the curveball ... I’d pick Tagovailoa or Herbert. I cannot fathom either in the top five, but I can live with picking either of them in the middle of the first round because the value suggests that’s their rightful place.
And, no, they’re still not quite right. I’m still not sure they’re future superstars. But at No. 18, the risk is mitigated because I would already have an almost certain Pro Bowl player on the team in either Thomas or Brown, who I picked at No. 5.
The cynics will say this cannot happen because Herbert and Tagovailoa are quarterbacks and those go quickly, certainly in the top 10.
Well, it’s almost certain one of those two will be available at No. 5, depending on whether the Los Angeles Chargers trade up ahead of Miami for their quarterback of choice.
But after Miami, there are only two teams — Jacksonville at No. 9 and the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 12 — who seriously might pick a quarterback. Obviously, anyone can surprise and do the unexpected, but most of the teams from No. 6 on down have a quarterback they like.
That leaves the Dolphins in a spot of still picking the Herbert-Tua leftover at No. 18, having to trade back up to grab the Chargers’ leftover, or not picking one of those guys at all.
I’m fine with any of these options.
I’m fine with giving Miami’s later second-round pick (No. 56 overall) and fourth-round pick (No. 141) to trade up from No. 18 to perhaps No. 8, if necessary.
In this scenario, I still kept three first-round picks and one second and got a really good player to go with one of the uncertain quarterbacks.
The other way? I’m picking an uncertain quarterbacks at No. 5 but adding a lesser prospect picked at No. 18. No thanks.
I like my way better. And I can live with it because I have no fear of being without either Herbert or Tagovailoa if it doesn’t go exactly as planned.
Because I don’t love either of them enough to invest a top-five pick.
This story was originally published April 14, 2020 at 10:31 PM.
