Dolphins, Chargers trade battle unlikely, but one might have unexpected edge if it happens
The clock in your head is ticking incessantly because we’re getting closer to the start of the NFL draft’s first round. And you’re excited because you love sports. And you love the NFL. And you love the Miami Dolphins. And you love the idea of Miami having three first-round picks. And you love the possibility of drafting a quarterback in that first round.
You have also been eating gobs of fudge during the pandemic and you want another way to pass time.
So you’re fired up.
Let’s go!!!!
Let’s be aggressive, Miami Dolphins, because dang it, we need a quarterback!
And now I ask you to slow your roll.
Because the day will come when it comes. And the draft will start when it starts. And, as for that big trade, I remind you Chris Grier is the general manager of the Miami Dolphins. And Tom Telesco is the general manager of the Los Angeles Chargers.
And neither gentlemen is considered a wheeler and dealer.
Neither.
So how can there be a trade with the Detroit Lions if the Lions are waiting for their secure phone line to ring with Grier on the other end, but Grier isn’t calling? And they’re waiting for their secure line to ring with Telesco on the line but that’s not happening, either?
Now the Lions feel like nobody in their general draft vicinity wants to go to the prom with them.
This could be what happens April 23 because, again, neither Grier nor Telesco — the two men most in need of a quarterback in this draft — might be desperate enough to trade up to get one. Because trading up hasn’t typically been in their nature.
Grier, the Dolphins’ general manager since 2016, has not traded up in the first round in the four years he has been running the Dolphins draft. Not once.
And this sobering fact: Grier has on multiple occasions resisted calls from within the Miami brain trust, including owner Stephen Ross, to make any trades whatsoever.
Remember that in 2017, Ross wanted Grier to trade down, and the GM said, “No.” And in 2016 some within the brain trust wanted Grier to trade up for quarterback Josh Allen. And he didn’t do that, either.
Grier did trade down once — in 2016 — when Miami dropped from No. 8 overall to No. 13 in order to get linebacker Kiko Alonso and cornerback Byron Maxwell from the Philadelphia Eagles. But that trade was made weeks before the draft, and was mostly built in talks between Philadelphia executive VP Howie Roseman and then-Dolphins executive VP Mike Tannenbaum.
That trade, in other words, was not done as teams were on the clock. It was not done in the midst of a draft when Grier had greater control of the steering wheel to direct Miami’s moves.
This draft, Grier will be driving. Yes, coach Brian Flores will have a significant role and say. But Grier will be the guy making the final call.
And then there’s Telesco, the 47-year-old general manager of the Chargers...
They call him Trader Tom in Los Angeles.
No, they don’t.
In truth, one of the most-repeated criticisms of Telesco in the San Diego/Los Angeles media dating back to 2013 when he took over, is that he doesn’t trade enough.
Telesco has made one trade in the first round of the seven drafts he has run for the Chargers. He traded up two spots to pick Melvin Gordon in 2015. He has otherwise stayed put in the first round.
So history is looking at this Grier-Telesco dynamic and getting seriously depressed because these guys have not shown a great proclivity for first-round activity in the past.
And the really depressing thing, especially for Detroit, which would love a bidding war for its No. 3 overall selection, is that the Dolphins and Chargers are very well matched should they get into that fight.
Consider:
The Lions, who have let it be known they are open to trade talks, sit at No. 3 overall. That spot is worth 2,200 points in most draft trade value charts.
The Dolphins sit at No. 5 overall and that spot is worth 1,700 points in most draft trade value charts.
The Chargers sit at No. 6 overall and that spot is worth 1,600 points in most draft trade value charts.
So the Dolphins are minus-500 points and the Chargers are minus-600 points from being able to climb to Detroit’s spot. (Somebody check my math because I’m terrible at it).
That means these teams have to give up draft assets to make up their point deficits — the Dolphins 500 points, the Chargers 600.
Well, in the second round the Dolphins own the 39th overall selection and that’s worth 510 points. So that would be their cost of moving up two spots to No 3 overall.
The problem is the Chargers hold the 37th overall selection in the second round — two spots ahead of Miami. And that’s worth 530 points.
On the basis of points the Lions would seem better off taking Miami’s trade. But they may value the Chargers’ higher second-rounder more than Miami’s higher first-rounder. Why?
Because if the Lions trade with the Chargers and go from No. 3 to No. 6, they know the Dolphins are still likely to pick a quarterback at No. 5. The Dolphins did not tank in 2019 to select a cornerback or a tackle.
So the Dolphins are unlikely to pick the defensive player or offensive tackle the Lions value.
The Lions may thus may decide dropping to No. 6 in the first round is less painful than dropping two lower slots in the second round.
My guess is this would be Telesco’s argument to Detroit general manager Bob Quinn if he engages in talks at all.
And Grier might have to counter this by including a later pick, perhaps one of Miami’s two fifth-round picks, to convince Quinn otherwise.
Ultimately, it would be a judgment call by Quinn.
The point is a trade duel between the Dolphins and Chargers is not as cut-and-dried favoring Miami as it seems, although Miami has greater assets.
And the other point?
It would be unusual, based on their conservative histories, for Grier and Telesco to get into such a battle for the No. 3 pick anyway.
This story was originally published April 14, 2020 at 12:00 AM.
