Buyer beware: As draft trade window opens, Dolphins must operate with extreme caution
The window for teams to begin feeling each other out about what trades they might be interested in making during the April 23 NFL Draft’s first round has opened.
Multiple teams, including the Miami Dolphins, have already had serious internal conversations about their willingness to move around the draft order. And those conversation are starting to be shared with other teams on a cursory basis.
Dolphins general manager Chris Grier has said he would not rule out vaulting from the No. 5 spot to No. 1, and the team is expected to eventually make such an attempt to draft Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow. But that time has not yet come. The Dolphins as of Monday afternoon had not talked to the Cincinnati Bengals about a trade to No. 1.
So what does this all mean tangibly?
The Dolphins obviously are preparing for the possibility of having to move to get their quarterback, which is good because teams with good quarterbacks have often moved from their original draft slots to get their guys.
But the Dolphins also have to be prepared to walk away from any such a move — especially this year.
Why? Because this year, perhaps more than most, is fraught with the possibility that a Dolphins trade-up for a quarterback will fail in accomplishing the goal of the whole deal.
Miami’s goal is ultimately to lay the groundwork for winning a Super Bowl.
Here’s the landscape:
The Dolphins can consider just about any draft day trade-up to land their quarterback of choice because they have more draft resources than any other team. That’s good for the Dolphins.
But it’s also dangerous for the Dolphins.
Other teams know Miami’s riches of resources is available if the Dolphins start inquiring about a trade-up. And some general manager, in an completely unexpected moment of greediness, might want to overcharge the Dolphins to make a deal.
So Grier has to be very systematic in knowing what he’s willing to give up before engaging in serious trade talks. And then he has to be disciplined once any trade talk becomes serious.
Secondly, the Dolphins are in a situation where they have vast amount of trade resources. But they also have vast amount of significant needs.
And so the 2020 draft might be about landing a franchise quarterback. But it cannot be solely about landing a franchise quarterback.
It takes more to win a Super Bowl than putting a franchise quarterback in the offensive huddle.
The Dolphins need a starting left tackle. They might need help at right tackle. They need help at running back. They need help along the defensive line. They could use a tight end and possibly a safety.
So trading multiple picks to land a quarterback could cost the likelihood of addressing those other needs. And if the Dolphins don’t address the other needs, they will find themselves a team with a rookie quarterback they love and a team full of other holes.
So it truly is not just about finding a great quarterback.
Ask the San Diego Chargers, Detroit Lions, Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts and others about that.
All those teams spent years in the past decade with outstanding quarterbacks, and some with perhaps even Hall of Fame-caliber quarterbacks.
And none of those teams won a Super Bowl.
And several of those teams endured multiple losing seasons.
Why?
Because Philip Rivers, Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck and others played quarterback very well most seasons while the rest of the team was unable to plug myriad holes that sunk seasons for the franchise.
Those teams seemingly solved the quarterback problem. And still weren’t good enough to win it all.
And now the stinging reminder that the Dolphins for 17 years solved the quarterback problem. Dan Marino had a Hall of Fame career. He was one of the greatest passers of all time.
But Miami did not win a Super Bowl during his time.
The final reason the Dolphins might have to be wary about trading, particularly up, in the coming draft: They might be bargaining for a lemon.
The NFL draft world, it seems, is divided into two significant quarterback camps on the identity of the next-best quarterback prospect after Burrow. Some people love Tua Tagovailoa. Some people love Justin Herbert.
Here’s the truth: The Dolphins might find themselves having to trade up to the No. 3 spot in the draft to land their preference of the two players.
Here’s another truth, and this one is uncomfortable: Both Tagovailoa, because of a long injury history, and Herbert, because of a game tape history of failing for reasons of inconsistent accuracy or poor performance under pressure, are incomplete prospects.
Both. Of. Them.
So trade up for one of those guys? Give up other draft considerations atop a No. 5 overall selection for a quarterback who everyone knows is not a good bet to succeed?
Buyer beware, Miami Dolphins.
This story was originally published April 13, 2020 at 12:48 AM.
