Miami Dolphins pivotal decision atop NFL Draft comes with 3 choices — only 2 are QBS
One good decision is what has separated the Miami Dolphins from potential championships the past 20 years.
One good decision amid a bundle of choices could have changed everything in 2001.
In 2005.
In 2006.
In 2008.
Perhaps in 2012.
Definitely in 2017. And once again, perhaps, in 2018.
One good decision by the people who have run five different Dolphins administrations could have potentially rewritten club and NFL history.
You know the decisions. We don’t have to spend significant time detailing them because you’ll recognize them at a glance.
Not drafting Drew Brees in 2001.
Picking Ronnie Brown and not Aaron Rodgers in 2005.
Signing Daunte Culpepper and not Brees in 2006.
Picking Jake Long (safer pick) over Matt Ryan (less safe) in 2008.
Picking Ryan Tannehill in 2012 when, it turns out, the best QB in that draft was Russell Wilson.
Not doing a thorough investigation on quarterbacks in 2017 — a draft in which Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson were selected by two teams that traded up from a position behind the Dolphins to land their franchise quarterbacks.
Not moving on draft day 2018 when voices inside the Dolphins draft room suggested doing exactly that to pick Josh Allen, a quarterback who is growing and last season led the Buffalo Bills to 10 wins and a playoff spot.
(In the 2018 Allen case, as with Watson and Mahomes the year before, a team scheduled to pick after the Dolphins jumped over them to land its quarterback.)
All that happened. That’s the history.
And here’s the future:
The Miami Dolphins are staring another franchise-defining and potential league-resetting decision right in the eyes come April’s NFL Draft. And once again it involves what to do about a quarterback.
This year, outside the unlikely hope the Cincinnati Bengals pass on Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow and offer up their No. 1 pick in trade — which currently has zero chance of happening — the decision is going to primarily involve two quarterbacks:
Tua Tagovailoa.
Justin Herbert.
Those are your only two QB choices at the top of the draft, Miami Dolphins.
Those are your two guys, Dolphins fans.
And as in the past, there are other players on the board. And as in the past, the Dolphins have needs up and down their roster that may tempt them to address another position. And as in the past, there are other talented quarterbacks later in the draft.
Jordan Love, Jacob Eason, Jalen Hurts, Steven Montez and others all have talent, but they’re all considered players needing significant development. One of those guys may turn out to be the next Wilson. Or maybe they’ll all be career backups.
But on its face — at the top of the draft — the Dolphins face a monumental decision whose scope is narrow. The Dolphins might do one of three things with that pick:
Find a way to pick Tagovailoa, either with a trade up or at No. 5 overall. Sure, Tagovailoa is talented, has elite accuracy and shows great leadership. But his extensive injury history and size are reasons for concern.
Find a way to pick Herbert, either with a trade up or at No. 5 overall. Sure, Herbert looks the part at 6-6 and and 237 pounds, has a strong arm, is very mobile, very athletic and is smart. But his accuracy issues in college are real.
So decide, Miami Dolphins. Which one?
Tagovailoa or Herbert? Those two are your only choices at the top of the coming draft if you want a QB there. That’s it.
But there is one other choice: No QB at all atop the draft.
That’s the only other possibility.
The Dolphins might decide to fill another position — like offensive tackle — and wait for QB not named Tua or Justin later. Or perhaps the Dolphins trade down to add to their already sizable draft treasure.
But make no mistake ... picking a player at another position or trading down beyond a couple of spots will almost definitely mean the Dolphins will not get either Tagovailoa or Herbert. Because those two are generally considered the best available beyond Burrow. And QBs generally get overdrafted.
So, according to multiple NFL personnel sources, neither is likely to last past the No. 7-8ish spots in the first round.
Someone will pull the trigger if not Miami.
And if not Miami, it would not exactly be a surprise because the Dolphins haven’t exactly been aggressive in picking quarterbacks based on the road they took in ‘17, ‘18 and ‘19, for that matter, when they passed on Dwayne Haskins.
So there are your three choices:
Tagovailoa.
Herbert.
Someone else to fill a different position or something else in the form of a trade-down.
The problem with all this is there is no obvious right answer on what to do. If the Dolphins had the first pick, the obvious right answer would be to draft Burrow.
Done.
But the tanking of the 2019 season didn’t accomplish what it originally set out to do.
So now the Dolphins face a tough call. Maybe they get lucky. Maybe both Tagovailoa and Herbert are destined to become the next Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, and Miami can’t lose by picking either one.
But there’s also a chance this might be decision that offers no good answer. Certainly not if Tagovailoa doesn’t stay healthy or Herbert doesn’t develop into an elite NFL player after failing to reach that plateau in college.
That would mean the Dolphins have to be, well, genius to come up with a good decision. Or lucky.
They’ve been neither the past two decades.
This story was originally published February 13, 2020 at 12:00 AM.
