East finals preview: Bob’s run, Barkov’s matchup and more key questions to Panthers-Canes
The Carolina Hurricanes have been a powerhouse from the start of the 2022-23 NHL season. The Florida Panthers barely squeaked into the 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs.
They’re divergent paths don’t mean anything now. The Panthers and Hurricanes are squaring off in the Eastern Conference finals, with a spot in the Stanley Cup Finals on the line starting Thursday at 8 p.m. at PNC Arena in Raleigh, North Carolina.
Florida hasn’t been here since 1996, when it went on to make the 1996 Stanley Cup Finals in only its third season of existence. The Hurricanes were just here during the 2019 Stanley Cup playoffs and even won a Stanley Cup back in 2006.
Carolina has both the pedigree and the recent head-to-head success. The Hurricanes took two of three from the Panthers in the regular season and has won 16 of 24 going back to 2018, although Florida did post a five-game winning streak against Carolina from 2021 to 2022.
Here are five questions surrounding the matchup, with answers on what to expect in the Panthers-Hurricanes series:
Can Sergei Bobrovsky keep covering up the Panthers’ flaws?
As good as Florida has been in these Stanley Cup playoffs, the Panthers have still been outshot overall, and given up more scoring chances and high-danger chances than they’ve created. Especially in Round 2, Florida never really dominated, despite ousting the Maple Leafs in just five games: Toronto had more 5-on-5 expected goals in four of five games.
None of it has mattered, though, because of Sergei Bobrovsky. The star goaltender has been the best goalie in the Cup playoffs after stopping 164 of 174 shots in the second round. The 34-year-old Russian has saved 9.3 goals above expected, according to MoneyPuck.com, and none of the other goalies in the NHL Conference Finals have saved even four above expected.
There are two ways to look at Bobrovsky’s play:
1. This is what’s expected of him. He won two Vezina Trophies last decade with the Blue Jackets and sparked one of the biggest upsets in NHL history in the 2019 Stanley Cup playoffs when he posted a .932 save percentage in a first-round sweep of the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Lightning. This is all why Florida gave him a seven-year, $70 million dealback in 2019 to make him the highest paid goaltender in the league, and he’s playing like it.
2. This is a total outlier. In the regular season, Bobrovsky had a meager .901 save percentage for his fifth straight season with a save percentage worse than .920, and he wasn’t even the starter at the start of the postseason, with the Panthers instead riding goaltender Alex Lyon. Bobrovsky only saved 6.2 goals above expected in the entire regular season, so this possibly can’t be sustainable.
Whichever one of these is true will be the biggest factor in determining whether Florida can pull off a third straight upset.
Who will win on special teams?
The Panthers have the second-best power play percentage of anyone in the Conference Finals at 27.6 percent. Carolina has the best penalty-kill percentage at 90 percent.
Both teams are incredibly stingy in 5-on-5 play — with similar high-pressure, heavy-forecheck styles — and it should make the special-teams moments crucial.
For Florida, this postseason flipped once it started to score on the power play.
The Panthers went 1 of 31 on the power play in the 2022 Stanley Cup playoffs, and their two-year slump got all the way to 1 of 40 in these playoffs before they finally broke through in Game 4 of Round 1. Florida closed the first round on a 5-of-11 run on the power play to rally and stun the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Bruins.
The Panthers made a change then, too, and it has worked. Halfway through Game 3 of the Boston series, Florida swapped left wing Carter Verhaeghe in for Aaron Ekblad on the top power-play unit — going with four forwards and one defenseman, rather than three and two — and it has boosted both units. The Panthers have gotten six power-play goals from their top unit, but also two from the second, with Ekblad scoring a crucial goal in the clinching game of Round 2.
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What assignment will Aleksander Barkov get?
All-Star center Aleksander Barkov might not score — or even shoot — enough for everyone’s taste, but he was still one of the biggest reasons for the Panthers’ second-round upset.
Auston Matthews didn’t score once, and it was largely because Barkov shut him down.
It was an obvious assignment for the 27-year-old forward, who won the Frank J. Selke Trophy (given to the best defensive forward) just last year. Matthews had 100 goals in the last two regular seasons, so Florida deployed its captain and his line for more than 28 minutes against the superstar center. The Panthers ultimately held the high-powered Maple Leafs to just 10 goals in five games.
The challenge presented by the Hurricanes is they have no clear-cut top line. In the regular season, Carolina’s three best trios were Martin Necas-Paul Stastny-Andrei Svechnikov, Jordan Martinook-Jordan Staal-Jesper Fast and Teuvo Teravainen-Sebastian Aho-Seth Jarvis, but none of those lines are currently playing together because of injuries to Teravainen and Svechnikov.
Ultimately, Florida doesn’t feel the need to play a matchup game and the Hurricanes’ depth means it might not in Round 3. It could make Barkov a bit less valuable, though.
Can the Panthers match the Hurricanes’ depth?
The Panthers almost certainly have more top-end forward talent than Carolina — both Barkov and superstar right wing Matthew Tkachuk averaged more than a point per game in the regular season, and no Hurricane did — and yet the playoffs often come down to depth.
In these playoffs, Florida’s has been good with its third line of forwards Eetu Luostarinen, Anton Lundell and Sam Reinhart actually being its most productive, in terms of expected goals.
Of course, Carolina has Necas, its leading scorer, down on its third line and all four of its current lines are at least even in expected goals.
Can the Panthers take advantage of injuries?
Right now, the only regular missing from Florida’s lineup is fourth-line left wing Ryan Lomberg. For Carolina, Teravainen is out with a fractured hand and Svechnikov is done for the season with a torn right anterior cruciate ligament.
Lomberg and Tervainen could both return during this series — the wingers were both full participants in practice earlier this week — and so the Panthers need to capitalize on their health advantage while Teravainen is out. They did the same thing in Round 1 when the Bruins were missing multiple centers at various points in the series.
As many injuries as it had in the regular season, Florida has often been the healthier team in the playoffs and it’s a big part of why it’s in the final four.
This story was originally published May 17, 2023 at 9:57 AM.
