With 20 games left in the regular season, the Florida Panthers are hanging by a thread in the race for the 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs, and the next seven games could make or break their year.
The Panthers begin a seven-game homestand Thursday against the Nashville Predators. Four of those games are against either playoff contenders or teams firmly in the postseason field, including one Saturday against the Pittsburgh Penguins, whom Florida is currently chasing.
Every game has taken on a must-win feel for the Panthers and these next seven, in particular. They still don’t have a winning streak longer than seven games this season and their longest homestand of the year is their best opportunity to string one together.
These are seven keys to watch before Florida plays seven in a row in Sunrise:
Win at least 5 games
Let’s start with the basics: a look at what exactly the Panthers (30-26-6) need to do, in terms of wins and losses, to get into the Stanley Cup playoffs.
Although Florida is only a point out of a wild card, the Panthers’ points percentage places them behind the Penguins, New York Islanders, Buffalo Sabres, Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings. They need to do much better than just slightly improve their current pace.
Right now, Pittsburgh is on pace to get the top wild card with about 94 points. The Sabres, who beat the Panthers in a pivotal game Friday, are on pace to get the second and final wild card with about 92 points.
For Florida to get to 92 points, it needs to win roughly one-third of its remaining games, give or take a few extra points here and there for getting a game into overtime. Winning 13 of 20 without any overtime or shootout losses would get the Panthers there, so, most simply put, Florida needs to win five of seven at FLA Live Arena to get on track, especially since teams should play better at home.
The Panthers play 14 of their last 20 in South Florida. If they go .500 on the road the rest of the way, they will need to win about 10 home games to get ahead of Buffalo’s current pace.
Play smart without Barkov, Bennett
The Panthers’ emphatic 4-1 upset of the Tampa Bay Lightning on Tuesday in Tampa was evidence of why they can still make the Cup playoffs.
Aleksander Barkov and Sam Bennett were both out with injuries, and Florida still raced out to a 3-0 lead to beat a Stanley Cup contender in Tampa.
It was a dramatic difference from four days earlier, when the Panthers lost to the Sabres in Florida without those two centers. Coach Paul Maurice saw his team play smarter, which was needed with less firepower in the lineup.
“We were really smart at the offensive line tonight,” the coach said Tuesday, with a sly smile after he was asked what his team did better at Amalie Arena. “We got pucks deep in when we were supposed to ... and if you have a chance off the rush, you make your play, but we didn’t force any pucks and didn’t feed their offense.”
More importantly, get them back
It’s a solid-enough temporary recipe for success, even if it’s sort of an unexciting one. It can work on a game-to-game basis, but a cautious, defensive-minded approach isn’t how Florida won the Presidents’ Trophy last year.
For the Panthers to really push for the playoffs, they just need Barkov and Bennett back. It probably won’t happen Thursday when they hosts the Predators (29-23-6) at 7 p.m., but they could be back by the weekend and let Florida play a slightly more aggressive style — the type it’s most comfortable playing — for most of the homestand.
Florida Panthers center Eric Staal (12) and Anaheim Ducks defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk (22) try to keep each other away from the puck during the first period of a NHL game between the Florida Panthers and the Anaheim Ducks on Monday, Feb. 20, 2023, at FLA Live Arena in Sunrise, Fla. Alie Skowronski askowronski@miamiherald.com
Is Eric Staal’s resurgence real?
Until their top two centers get back, the Panthers need to keep getting great contributions from forwards Eric Staal and Eetu Luostarinen.
Staal, in particular, has been a revelation lately. The 38-year-old, six-time All-Star has five goals and two assists, and Florida has outshot opponents 21-6 with a 23-3 advantage in scoring chances and 12-2 edge in high-danger chances when Staal has been on the ice for 5-on-5 action in two games since Barkov went out of the lineup.
“He’s getting back to that form,” Maurice said. “It took him a little while to start, but it’s not just the play. It’s the smarts on the ice. You’ve got [wingers Ryan Lomberg and Nick] Cousins, for me, playing the best hockey of their career and I think Eric Staal’s the driver of that.”
Florida Panthers goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky (72) catches a shot on goal during the third period of a NHL game between the Florida Panthers and the Anaheim Ducks on Monday, Feb. 20, 2023, at FLA Live Arena in Sunrise, Fla. The score was tied 3-3 at the end of the third. Alie Skowronski askowronski@miamiherald.com
Sergei Bobrovsky must play well
As good as Staal was, Sergei Bobrovsky was probably the biggest reason the Panthers beat Tampa Bay this week.
The star goaltender stopped 29 of 30 shots, including all 19 he saw in the third period, and now has a .925 save percentage since the start of last month.
So many of Florida’s roster issues stem back to the seven-year, $70 million contract Bobrovsky signed in 2019, so he needs to carry his weight. He has for the last month.
“It’s just one shot at a time,” Bobrovsky said Tuesday. “It takes all of us.”
Stop taking so many penalties
Of course, Florida wouldn’t have needed Bobrovsky’s excellence if it wasn’t for all the penalties it committed.
The Panthers committed five in the final 30 minutes, letting the Lightning hang around into the final minute. Florida killed off 4 of 5, including the last four, to survive, but the Panthers’ penalty-kill percentage is still sixth worst in the league and they’re the most penalized team in the league, committing 4.79 per 60 minutes. It’s not a winning recipe.
Get some help
Let’s finish by going back to the beginning: a look at what needs to happen elsewhere in the league.
Florida is actually the favorite to get the No. 8 seed, according to FiveThirtyEight’s Wednesday projections, largely because the teams it’s chasing have exceeded expectations this year. Predictive models suggest the Panthers will outplay their current pace and the teams they’re chasing will fade down the stretch.
Buffalo currently has the Eastern Conference’s eighth best points percentage, and hasn’t been to the playoffs since 2011 and lost to the league-worst Columbus Blue Jackets on Tuesday. It’s a young team still capable of losing to anyone, just like just about every other wild card contender. Other than the Penguins, everyone the Panthers are chasing didn’t make the playoffs last year.
Even though there are too many contenders for Florida to think it can back into the postseason, the Panthers are still tracking scores across the league, knowing every loss by the Sabres, Islanders, Senators and Red Wings helps.
“I’m always checking that NHL app, looking at the standings and stuff, but, at the end of the day, it’s all in our control,” star defenseman Aaron Ekblad said Monday. “We have to win games and get two points every night or it’s all moot, anyway.”
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