Even after Bobrovsky’s bounceback season, a goalie quandary looms over Panthers’ future
As poorly as his first two seasons went with the Florida Panthers, Sergei Bobrovsky trusted a year like this one would eventually come and his faith — his commitment to routine, even when it wasn’t yielding results — was rewarded. The star goaltender was finally back to something like his old self this season, with a save percentage identical to the one he had in his final season with the Columbus Blue Jackets and a handful of other statistics pointing to him as, once again, one of the best goalies in the NHL.
Even if his faith never wavered, he’s in a much better place at the end of Year 3 than he was at the end of Year 2, when Spencer Knight was rising to stardom and Bobrovsky’s future as the Panthers’ starter wasn’t even guaranteed.
“Those two years was not easy,” Bobrovsky said last month.
For the first time since Florida signed him to a $10 million-a-year contract in 2019, the Panthers could view their goaltending as an unmitigated strength this year. Bobrovsky ranked fourth in the NHL in goals saved above expected, and Knight actually outplayed him in the second half of the regular season. In a contract-free vacuum, Florida’s goalie situation is fantastic, with as good a tandem as there is in hockey.
Of course, the entire problem is the contract situation. Bobrovsky, 33, is entering the fourth season of a seven-year, $70 million deal and has a no-movement clause. Knight, 21, is going into the third and final season of his entry-level contract, and will be a restricted free agent after next year.
As good as Bobrovsky was this season, Florida still explored trade possibilities for the two-time Vezina Trophy winner ahead of the trade deadline, Sportsnet reported last month, and it makes sense. The Panthers are staring at a cap crunch, with less than $4 million in space available this summer and several stars entering the final years of their contracts, and Bobrovsky and Knight will theoretically become redundant at some point.
The moment could be coming sooner rather than later.
Sergei Bobrovsky’s future in NHL
Bobrovsky’s turnaround began in the preseason and, whether it’s coincidence, it coincided with the birth of his daughter.
Becoming a father, he said, gave him “a different perspective” and it helped.
The Russian goalie faced a mountain of expectations a year ago. The Panthers benched him during the 2021 Stanley Cup playoffs after two regular seasons with a meager .902 save percentage and 3.10 goals against average, and Bobrovsky, a notoriously analytical player, was frustrated with the way he was underperforming.
His daughter let his mind wander elsewhere and he needed it.
“Definitely the daughter being born helped a lot to see things in a different perspective,” Bobrovsky said. “You look at life in a different perspective and you appreciate different things, and you become a deeper human.”
In the preseason, he beat out Knight for the clear-cut starting job and never let it go. He led the NHL in wins and posted a .913 save percentage with a 2.67 goals against average in the regular season, and mostly maintained his play in the 2022 Stanley Cup playoffs with a .911 save percentage and 2.70 goals against average.
His value still doesn’t quite match up with his contract — the second biggest for a goalie — but it’s closer and he’s an undoubtedly positive contributor for a Stanley Cup contender. General manager Bill Zito proved with his aggressive pre-deadline trades in March he’s OK with overpaying to chase a Cup. There’s a place in South Florida for Bobrovsky, even with his giant contract.
“I see lots of potential in myself,” Bobrovsky said. “I don’t see limits.”
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Panthers’ Bobrovsky-Knight contract dilemma
At some point, the Panthers will have to make a decision, though. Former general manager Dale Tallon’s baffling decision to sign Bobrovsky and draft Knight less than two weeks apart in 2019 means Florida will eventually need to pay both meaningful money, especially because Knight already looks like a star.
There’s not necessarily urgency to do it this summer, at least. Knight is due just $925,000 for the final year of his entry-level deal and Florida can keep most of its roster intact without doing anything because 13 of its top 14 scorers are locked up for next year.
It all becomes more complicated next offseason, when All-Star left wing Jonathan Huberdeau, star defenseman MacKenzie Weegar and Knight are all set to become free agents. The Panthers are staring a potential scenario in which Huberdeau, Weegar, Bobrovsky, star center Aleksander Barkov and star defenseman Aaron Ekblad are taking up more than half of their cap space, with Knight also finally making more than the league minimum.
Right now, Bobrovsky’s contract isn’t entirely crippling for Florida because he and Knight are making less than $11 million combined. Eventually, it’ll become a more complex math problem because the Panthers would likely have to retain some of Bobrovsky’s contract — perhaps 50 percent — to entice a team to take him.
Knight will almost certainly not make $5 million per year on his next contract, so Florida would still save money by offloading Bobrovsky. It just has to wait to make the move until it trusts Knight can be the goalie for a championship team.
As for now, Bobrovsky is still the Panthers’ top option.
“I’m just going to stay humble,” he said, “and prepare myself for next season.”
