What’s wrong with the Panthers? 4 questions to answer after their worst week of the year
For most of the 2021-22 NHL season and especially the first six or seven weeks of 2022, the Florida Panthers were “globetrotting,” as Andrew Brunette put it.
From the time their season restarted right before New Year’s Eve until the beginning of last week, the Panthers really did sort of look like the Harlem Globetrotters, scoring 4.90 goals per game and winning 17 of 21 with an average scoring margin of more than two goals.
Even if some sort of losing streak was inevitable for Florida, it’s still stunning to see Globetrotters lose three in a row, like the Panthers did last week.
“Things were really going our way,” Brunette said Saturday after his Panthers fell 4-3 to the Edmonton Oilers. “It just goes through the course of the year.”
With five days before it returns to the ice to face the Ottawa Senators on Thursday in Sunrise, Florida (35-13-5) has time this week to figure out how to snap its skid with four major questions in need of answers.
1. Are teams defending Florida differently? Neither Brunette nor All-Star left wing Jonathan Huberdeau think so.
“No,” the interim coach said. “We had our opportunities.”
Said Huberdeau on Thursday: “They’re playing their game and it’s on us, I think, to work harder. I think we’re trying to be a little too cute and maybe we have too much confidence, so we’ve got to come back and keep it more simple.”
Huberdeau’s analysis was a common refrain for the Panthers, who had more than 40 shots on goal, 70 shot attempts and at least 18 high-danger chances in each of their three losses last week. Florida, however, only had three total rebound attempts in the final two losses, although Huberdeau, Brunette and star center Aleksander Barkov all said it’s more an issue of the Panthers’ own hunger around the net.
Barkov did point out some sort of a blueprint opponents are using against Florida, though: The Panthers are aggressive at trying to keep pucks in the zone to extend possessions and opponents, the captain said, were counterattacking well last week. It’s not exactly a secret formula, but it is the most sound strategy against offensive-minded Florida.
“Sometimes it looks like we’re not backchecking enough, but it’s just the team we’re playing against is playing smart,” Barkov said Saturday. “They know we’re a dangerous offensive team. We keep a lot of pucks in the offensive zone, but then they’re just waiting for their offensive chances and they’re playing smart.”
2. Was this level of scoring ever sustainable? It probably wasn’t possible to flirt with five goals per game and even the Panthers’ current 4.08-goals-per-game average would be the highest in the NHL since the 1995-96 season.
While it has maybe slightly overachieved by scoring 4.02 goals per 60 minutes compared to a league-leading 3.49 expected goals per 60, Florida still leads the league in shot attempts, shots on goals and high-danger chances and exceeded season averages in each of those categories in every game last week.
The most glaring difference was the Panthers’ inability to finish those high-danger chances. For the season, they have scored goals on 16.3 percent of its high-danger chances. Last week, they converted just 10.2 percent of those chances into goals.
Pair this with a lack of rebound generation and Florida didn’t score pretty or ugly frequently enough.
“We’re getting shots, we’re getting chances, but I think we’re pretty much, the last three games, we’ve been one and done,” Barkov said. “We come in the zone, we get a good shot, and then there’s no traffic in front and there’s no rebound guys ready to put the second chances in.”
3. How good will Sergei Bobrovsky be? Aside from a game early in the season when Brunette pulled him after one period, Bobrovsky had his two worst outings of the season last week, posting an .844 save percentage last Tuesday against the Nashville Predators and an .818 save percentage Saturday.
Brunette insisted there’s nothing wrong with the goaltender, whose .915 save percentage places him in a tie for 19th in the league.
“I don’t think he’s burnt out and I don’t think there’s anything wrong with him,” Brunette said. “Unfortunately, we gave up a couple easy goals against him, so that’s more on us than him.”
Florida needs to hope this is just a blip and not just a regression to the last two years for Bobrovsky, who gave up 2.91 goals per game with a .906 save percentage last season. If not, rookie goaltender Spencer Knight might have to be ready to play a big role in the 2022 Stanley Cup playoffs.
4. Is there a trade to be made? The trade deadline is officially this month and Bill Zito has not been shy about giving up future assets for immediate contributors. In all likelihood, the general manager will be active ahead of the March 21 deadline.
“We’re going to look at everything,” he told The Athletic last month.
It probably won’t mean any changes on offense, where the Panthers have more NHL-caliber forwards than roster spots, and the goalie situation is probably settled, too, because of Bobrovsky’s contract, unless Knight becomes part of a trade.
The eye will naturally turn to defense, with Florida ranking in the bottom half of the league in goals allowed and still looking for a sixth defenseman it can rely on every night. The Panthers could package some of their forward depth with NHL Entry Draft picks or prospects to try to add another reliable defenseman like Boca Raton-native Jakob Chychrun of the Arizona Coyotes.
