Two NHL Drafts looming. A look at how they’re connected, what Panthers could opt to do
Bill Zito has gone nonstop since he took over as general manager of the Florida Panthers less than 11 months ago. He guided the Panthers through the 2020 NHL Entry Draft and free agency, and to their best regular season in franchise history before a first-round exit from the 2021 Stanley Cup playoffs.
Zito has had a little less than two months to regroup since Florida bowed out in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs to the eventual-champion Tampa Bay Lightning and now his calendar is about to be as busy as ever.
The NHL will hold two drafts next week, then open up free agency the following week. After a breakthrough season for the Panthers, the rest of July will be crucial for them to finally win their first playoff series since 1996 and it starts next Wednesday with the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft.
“That’s been the topic of discussion for months and months. I think [director of hockey operations and salary cap management] Braden Birch is a little mock-drafted out, we’ve done it so many times, the poor guy,” Zito said last month, “but we’re prepared. The schedule is a little compacted this summer, but we’re actually looking forward to it to continue to grow and get better.”
Unless it gets creative, Florida will almost certainly lose a good player to the expansion Seattle Kraken next week.
NHL teams are allowed to protect as many as 11 players, so long as the breakdown is seven forwards, three defensemen and one goaltender, and the Panthers will likely use this formulation because of how many defensemen they want to protect.
Protection lists are due to the league Saturday.
Panthers’ Expansion Draft protection prediction
Certain players don’t have to be protected — all first- and second-year players, including goaltender Spencer Knight and right wing Owen Tippett. Certain players must be protected — those with no-move clauses, including star left wing Jonathan Huberdeau. Another group of players are just no-brainers to protect — stars like center Aleksander Barkov and defenseman MacKenzie Weegar.
Florida did not ask defenseman Keith Yandle to waive his no-move clause, Sportsnet reported, which means there’s essentially no debate about which goaltenders and defensemen will be protected.
▪ Goaltenders: Sergei Bobrovsky, who has a no-move clause.
▪ Defensemen: Weegar, Keith Yandle and Aaron Ekblad, who was having a star-type season before a season-ending injury in March.
The forwards to protect are mostly straightforward, although the last few spots are up for debate.
▪ Forwards: Barkov, Huberdeau, Patric Hornqvist, Carter Verhaeghe, Sam Bennett, Frank Vatrano and Anthony Duclair.
Those first five are obvious, even though Bennett is a restricted free agent. For the final two spots, the Panthers will have to choose between Vatrano, Duclair, and wingers Alex Wennberg, Noel Acciari and Mason Marchment.
Vatrano is under contract through 2022 and scored 18 goals last season, so he’s a safe bet to be protected. Acciari and Marchment are also locked up through next year, so they could be safe choices, too, but Duclair and Wennberg were such important pieces of good lines last season it could also make sense to protect either of them, preventing the Kraken from getting exclusive rights to negotiate with them ahead of the NHL Expansion Draft.
Duclair, in this prediction, gets the nod because he’s a restricted free agent, while Wennberg is unrestricted.
Ultimately, the unprotected forwards might not matter because Florida, unless it buys out Yandle this week, will have to leave Gustav Forsling unprotected after he emerged as an unlikely first-pairing defenseman in the wake of Ekblad’s injury.
This is where the 2021 Entry Draft comes into play.
Panthers’ draft-pick trade possibility
Florida is officially in win-now mode after finishing the 2020-21 NHL season with the fourth most points in the league.
The Panthers also still have a nice cache of young talent with Barkov, Verhaeghe, Duclair, Bennett and Tippett all still 25 or younger, and Knight, left wing Grigori Denisenko and center Anton Lundell all ranking among the top 30 prospects in the NHL, according to ESPN.com.
Florida’s first-round pick in the Entry Draft — No. 23 overall — is as expendable as ever and the Panthers could dangle it to try to improve its current roster. One way they can do so is to leverage for the Expansion Draft.
All the teams are faced with their own individual set of hurdles every summer,” Zito said. “[Columbus Blue Jackets president of hockey operations] John Davidson always used to say in Columbus, ‘Curveballs! curveballs! You never know what’s around the corner. Isn’t that always the case?
“There’s always going to be something that presents itself and there’s always a trade that’s around the corner that you hadn’t anticipated.”
One option for Florida could be to send the 23rd pick to Seattle as part of an agreement for the Kraken to take a player of the Panthers’ choice.
For example: If Seattle wants to take Forsling and Florida is set on keeping him, the Panthers could could offer the Kraken their first-round pick in exchange for Seattle taking a lesser player. Anton Stralman, who is entering the final year of his contract and owed $5.5 million next year, could be one option, as could fellow defenseman Radko Gudas, who is still a useful player and is under contract through 2023.
This probably only makes sense, though, to keep Forsling. Florida’s defense is still thin and Forsling, 25, is a potential foundational piece. Up front, the Panthers are deep enough and young enough to withstand losing a forward.
Of course, an Expansion Draft trade has backfired for Florida before. In the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, the Panthers traded Reilly Smith to the Vegas Golden Knights in exchange for Golden Knights picking Jonathan Marchessault. The two forwards now rank among the top three in Vegas history in points.
