Weighing The Toronto Maple Leafs' Draft Options Between Gavin McKenna And Ivar Stenberg

As soon as the Toronto Maple Leafs won the first overall pick, photoshops of Gavin McKenna in their jersey instantly popped up all over online.

The thought of replacing the departed Mitch Marner on franchise cornerstone Auston Matthews' wing with a younger, cheaper high-skill playmaker was understandably enticing.

But he's not the only bona fide option at No. 1.

A few, myself included, have mentioned that for much of the year, the race for first overall hasn't been as clear-cut as it was coming into the season.

Left winger Ivar Stenberg has emerged as a true contender for first overall because of his stellar season in the Swedish League and international success with Sweden.

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Shooting And Scoring

This is a close category.

McKenna has a good shot with pinpoint accuracy. He doesn't always shoot from the highest-danger areas. If he did, that would make him a much more dangerous shooter.

Stenberg has a heavier shot, and he's a more dangerous shooter in general. He gets the puck to dangerous scoring areas, and he isn't afraid to get to the net with and without the puck, which gives him more opportunities to generate chances.

Stenberg gets the edge here because he's a more habitually dangerous scorer, and he has a heavier release.

Edge: Stenberg

Defensive Impact

Much like the playmaking for McKenna, this is Stenberg's easiest win.

Stenberg isn't some kind of defensive wizard; he's just a really solid, smart, and hard-working defensive presence. He understands how to play within a system and has a positive impact. Stenberg understands how to disrupt passing lanes and engage along the boards to win the puck back. His understanding of how to kill cycles along the wall is also an asset in his own end.

McKenna's biggest weakness is his defensive zone coverage. His lackadaisical engagement in the defensive zone is a major issue for scouts. When he puts in an effort, McKenna is smart enough to get himself into position to break up play, but he's not a physical presence or the kind of winger who breaks up any cycles.

Edge: Stenberg

Puck Skill And Hands

McKenna is known for his slick hands and dirty dangles. If you isolate his ability with the puck, McKenna is truly special. His ability to deke and handle the puck around traffic makes him a walking highlight reel. He can toy with defenders, making them look absolutely silly.

Stenberg has quite good hands as well, with very solid puck protection ability. He's an above-average puckhandler with very good control of the puck. He doesn't lose this category because he is below average; he loses it because McKenna is a special puckhandler.

Edge: McKenna

Processing And IQ

Stenberg is a 200-foot, intelligent forward. He understands how to position himself and read the play to make an impact at both ends of the ice.

Two of his major assets when hunting down the puck are understanding forechecking routes and cutting off transitions in the neutral zone. Offensively, he finds pockets of space away from the puck, and he's constantly in motion. With the puck, he can visualize passing lanes opening up or take advantage of space to get the puck to dangerous areas.

While McKenna doesn't have the same kind of 200-foot impact, his offensive IQ is elite. McKenna manipulates and dictates how play will develop in the offensive zone, using his hands and vision to facilitate play. His ability to read the play and spot openings before they even open is special.

The way they think the game is another close category between McKenna and Stenberg. When it comes to their IQ, they are elite in very different ways.

While McKenna holds the advantage in the offensive zone with the puck, Stenberg thinks the game at a higher level elsewhere.

Edge: Push

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McKenna And Stenberg's Fit Depends On Philosophy

The Maple Leafs have a tough choice when they go up to the podium in Buffalo to make the first overall pick at the NHL draft.

Their decision will help shape the next decade of their franchise. It could help them retain Matthews long-term and build a contender for a new era of Leafs hockey.

McKenna was the immediate popular assumption as the No. 1 pick. He has the elite-level playmaking that Matthews could take advantage of better than almost any other player in the NHL.

Matthews and McKenna could make magic together, potentially allowing Matthews to get back to the top of the mountain as the NHL's best goal-scorer. Matthews' elite defensive game would also help cover up some of McKenna's defensive lapses.

While many are talking about him like a plug-and-play Mitch Marner replacement, that's not entirely fair.

Marner is an elite defensive player and a much better puck transporter. McKenna may ultimately have a bit of a higher ceiling as a playmaker, but the off-puck elements of Marner's game were elite, whereas McKenna's are a work in progress.

The Maple Leafs have had high-flying, offensively skilled teams in the past. The fan base fell in love with Marner, Matthews and William Nylander in their early years because their high-octane offense brought fans to their feet on a nightly basis.

That style didn't work out for Toronto. They made it out of the first round just twice in a nine-year span. Fans in Toronto were all over Marner for his lack of physicality. They were on Nylander for his underwhelming effort defensively. They were on Matthews for his lack of clutch scoring.

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There is a belief that Stenberg would represent a change in philosophy for the Leafs.

Stenberg may not score as many points in the regular season, but he's an integral piece to winning when the style undoubtedly changes in the playoffs. When space gets tighter, Stenberg's style of play is a little more conducive to success.

Stenberg would be capable of playing on Matthews' wing as well. He would actually complement him in all three zones and take away some of the responsibility in transition, which was possibly the most underrated aspect of Marner's departure.

Stenberg would also help Matthews and Matthew Knies become even more of a handful as a unit on the cycle.

Ultimately, the Leafs have a massive decision on their hands.

They can go with the easy choice, take McKenna and bank on his upside and the expected stylistic chemistry between him and Matthews. McKenna is the fun, flashy and easily explainable pick.

Opting for Stenberg is the more difficult decision. The decision would be based on deeper analysis and a philosophical shift from the previous era of Maple Leafs hockey. The offensive drop off when it comes to production won't be massive, but they will lose out on some of the flair that comes with McKenna.

Verdict

So who do the Leafs take?

If I were the Maple Leafs' GM, I would lean toward changing the team's philosophy and and building a better playoff squad, which would make Stenberg the pick.

But I think they will choose McKenna.

Besides, most of the hockey world seems to lean toward McKenna, whose upside and high-end skills are truly elite.

With a new management group that needs to nail the pick, going for the player everyone anointed the top prospect for several years makes sense.

But this is also an unorthodox management group.

Maybe they opt for Stenberg outright. Maybe they look at the Vancouver Canucks at third overall and see it as an opportunity to trade down. The San Jose Sharks need a defenseman, so trading down to third could hypothetically net them Stenberg as well as additional assets. That's probably a conversation for another day, though.

The opportunities are plentiful for the Toronto Maple Leafs, and at the end of the day, they will add an elite talent to the roster.

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This story was originally published May 7, 2026 at 3:03 PM.